Trending Democrat but only in the sense where I could see it being purple by, say, 2050, and blue by 2070 at this rate. I swear there has to be some kind of instructions Mississippi voters get that makes the state vote always Republican by similar margins. Even with what should be a better Democratic race in their special election it's looking pretty 57-43 for Republicans. They also almost always have the lowest third party % in Presidential races, which suggests that there just aren't many independents there.
MS Blacks vote 97% Democratic
MS Whites vote 85% Republican
Lets say the electorate is 65-35 White (it is a little higher but not much).
65 ^ .85 = 55.25% + (35^.03) = 56.3%
35 ^. 97 = 33.95% + (65^.15) = 43.7%
Lets run it again with Whites at 75% Republican.
65 ^ .75 = 48.75% + (35^.03) = 49.8%
35 ^. 97 = 33.95% + (65^.25) = 50.2%
For MS not to trend Democratic, you are betting on the longevity of seniors in one of the most unhealthy states in the union (obesity, smoking etc) or Millennials being the just as Republican as their parents to the tune where they won't even drop 10% in Republican voting.
Are there exit polls/research studies that confirm that younger whites in Mississippi are 10% less R than the seniors? If anything, I would have thought there’d still be some demosaurs in that seniors cohort
R+2 in 30-39, R+16 in 40-49, R+9 in 50-64, and R+56 in 65+.
Poll
