Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
January 23, 2019, 09:19:19 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  Election Archive
| | |-+  All Archived Boards
| | | |-+  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
| | | | |-+  TX-SEN Emerson: Cruz +1
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 3 Print
Author Topic: TX-SEN Emerson: Cruz +1  (Read 1944 times)
TheRocketRaccoon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 726
Singapore


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: August 27, 2018, 08:01:02 am »

Logged
Hindsight is 2020
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,222
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: August 27, 2018, 08:02:52 am »

Lol
Logged

Election days come and go. But the struggle of the people to create a government which represents all of us and not just the one percent-a government based on the principles of economic, social, racial, and environmental justice-that struggle continues.-Bernie Sanders
Torranski
Torrain
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 726
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: August 27, 2018, 08:04:32 am »


But Emerson
Logged

Tis better to have run and lost, than never to have run at all.
DTC
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,985


Political Matrix
E: 9.53, S: 10.50

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: August 27, 2018, 08:05:16 am »

Zaybay's poll prediction wasn't too far off, lol
Logged
Evil Racist WWC Redneck
Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,109
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.00, S: -4.00

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: August 27, 2018, 08:05:21 am »

>e m e r s o n, but I expect this to be very close on election night.
Logged
KingSweden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,330
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: August 27, 2018, 08:05:35 am »

Itís Emerson with 20% undecideds
Logged

For England, James?

No. For me.
Notorious Right-Winger Beto O'Rourke (NRBO)
The Impartial Spectator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,686


P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: August 27, 2018, 08:08:47 am »

Itís Emerson with 20% undecideds

Yeah, too many undecideds to be particularly meaningful. Both candidates will definitely get more than 37/38...
Logged

O'Rourke today is probably the most far-left candidate out there. Running of Medicare-for-all, abolishing ICE, No PAC money along with positions like impeaching Trump. In 2018, O'Rourke is to the left of Sanders & Warren & Brown !

Kamala/Beto 2020
dfwlibertylover
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,305
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: August 27, 2018, 08:12:51 am »

Logged
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,720
Venezuela


Political Matrix
E: 3.29, S: -1.30

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: August 27, 2018, 08:18:39 am »

Okay Emerson.
Logged
Torranski
Torrain
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 726
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: August 27, 2018, 08:23:43 am »



I've heard a lot of noise about O'Rourke losing gettable voters by refusing to moderate, while Cruz loses voters due to his opportunism (flipping from opponent to supporter) surrounding Trump.
I wonder whether there's an effective strategy for the O'Rourke camp to spin this;
'Better to have principles that you can disagree rather than no principles at all.'
Play the Election of 1800 defense.
Logged

Tis better to have run and lost, than never to have run at all.
Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,724
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: August 27, 2018, 08:39:07 am »

Big if true.

I wouldn't be overstate the poll, though, because there are so many undecided. A good many of them are probably right-leaning and coming home on election day. But Cruz has reason to worry, no question. Polling under 40% with almost 100% name recognition is not a good sign.
Logged

United Arab Emirates Immigrant, naturalized US citizen, resident of wonderful California, devoted liberal Democrat. Any questions?

Joni Ernst 20∞
IndyRep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,199
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: August 27, 2018, 08:47:11 am »

Well, I predicted a tie, so not far off. Too bad so many junk pollsters are polling this race.
Logged



Countdown timer to Joni Ernst's victory speech

Remember when MT Treasurer spent months and months telling us all that Heitkamp is favored and will easily win because of retail politics (TM)
Alabama_Indy10
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,919
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: August 27, 2018, 08:48:20 am »

21% undecided? Lame
Logged
Bevinevitable
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30,565
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -5.70

P P

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: August 27, 2018, 09:02:41 am »

A good rule of thumb is to trash any poll that shows 20% or more undecided.
Logged

King Francis I
windjammer
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,619
France


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: August 27, 2018, 09:13:07 am »

And I guess these undecided are 75% republicans?
Logged

Quote
Flo   it seems like everytime i talk to you i have some sort of illness
Windjammer Partisan Voting Index for US state senates
Windjammer Partisan Voting Index for US State Houses
Use Your Illusion
Full Member
***
Posts: 139


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: August 27, 2018, 09:16:03 am »

I don't know about the poll credibility but the Cruz camp is going be crapping bricks if these figures hold out for another 6 weeks. The fact Cruz is barely eking out leads in titanium solid Republican Texas is showing just how apathetic that base is becoming to him. And with over 20% still undecided in a state THAT big is a damning figure. I can't believe I'm saying this but O'Rourke may just have better than a snowball's chance in hell if these figures hold deep into October. By then it's possible O'Rourke's campaign could see just enough of a surge via undecideds and apathetic Republicans who will not vote his way to put him over. But of course this is more a reflection of Cruz than it is anything else. Should O'Rourke win he and Doug Jones are gonna have the two hottest seats in the Senate. Still a lean/tilt R race at this point but I'll always cheer for new blood in the Senate.

Unless it's Rick Scott. He can heck off
Logged
Senator Zaybay
Zaybay
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,254
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: August 27, 2018, 09:16:18 am »

Welp, I was right. God damn it Emerson.

I do find it interesting that in the polling we have so far, Abbott has opened up a large lead. But the senate race has been getting closer for the Ds. It seems like some ticket splitting is occurring.
Logged

mvd10
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,854


Political Matrix
E: 2.58, S: -2.61

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: August 27, 2018, 09:20:11 am »

Beto not cracking the magic 60% Democrats need when the Russians are interfering, sad! Safe R.
Logged

Archaeologist -> Historian -> Politician -> Economist -> Management Consultant -> Investment Banker -> Rich

The evolution of my dreams

The death of the arts to the forces of rationalization and greed, encapsulated in a single man. Sad
Use Your Illusion
Full Member
***
Posts: 139


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: August 27, 2018, 09:20:33 am »

And I guess these undecided are 75% republicans?

Probably. And probably deciding if they should either stay home or write-in. I don't know if O'Rourke has any blessings from other in-office or past candidates that might charge up the voting base but I'm not so sure he's gonna even need it now.
Logged
KingSweden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,330
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: August 27, 2018, 09:24:19 am »

Welp, I was right. God damn it Emerson.

I do find it interesting that in the polling we have so far, Abbott has opened up a large lead. But the senate race has been getting closer for the Ds. It seems like some ticket splitting is occurring.

Iíve seen speculation Crux could still be wounded from his non-endorsement at the 2016 RNC... this is more a theory about his diversion from Abbottís numbers rather than this junk poll, though
Logged

For England, James?

No. For me.
Senator Zaybay
Zaybay
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,254
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: August 27, 2018, 09:26:51 am »

Ok, I got some crosstabs, sort of



18/34 years: 47/28 25% undecided

35/54 years: 45/37 18% undecided

55/74 years: 33/47 20% undecided

75+ years: 17/39  56% undecided

So it seems that the undecideds are rather good for the Dems, based on age alone. The 75 group is both worrying or promising, as they are rather D in the south, and are a split generation as a whole. The 55-74 form the GOP base, and its good that in the poll, Cruz already seems to be milking it, so its unlikely the margin can get bigger.

EDIT: I got the press release, though it doesnt have as much info as I would have liked.
https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-tx-aug2018-pr.pdf
Logged

Use Your Illusion
Full Member
***
Posts: 139


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: August 27, 2018, 09:29:51 am »

Welp, I was right. God damn it Emerson.

I do find it interesting that in the polling we have so far, Abbott has opened up a large lead. But the senate race has been getting closer for the Ds. It seems like some ticket splitting is occurring.

^^^ Absolutely 100% this. We've had enough samples (good polls or not) to find out that Cruz is badly underperforming right now when all those samples (good polls or not) reflecting an expected margin for Abbot.

Oh my sweet, merciful Lord and Savior what I would not give to hear what Ann Richards would have say about all this right now. "Poor Ted Cruz.... he's finding the hard way that a true Texan from El Paso doesn't back down to anybody!"
Logged
Use Your Illusion
Full Member
***
Posts: 139


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: August 27, 2018, 09:32:01 am »

Ok, I got some crosstabs, sort of



18/34 years: 47/28 25% undecided

35/54 years: 45/37 18% undecided

55/74 years: 33/47 20% undecided

75+ years: 17/39  56% undecided

So it seems that the undecideds are rather good for the Dems, based on age alone. The 75 group is both worrying or promising, as they are rather D in the south, and are a split generation as a whole. The 55-74 form the GOP base, and its good that in the poll, Cruz already seems to be milking it, so its unlikely the margin can get bigger.

EDIT: I got the press release, though it doesnt have as much info as I would have liked.
https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-tx-aug2018-pr.pdf

Your theory on a vote split is definitely starting to hold some water here. I'm intrigued what the cross samples for Abbott are
Logged
Notorious Right-Winger Beto O'Rourke (NRBO)
The Impartial Spectator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,686


P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: August 27, 2018, 09:37:15 am »

Welp, I was right. God damn it Emerson.

I do find it interesting that in the polling we have so far, Abbott has opened up a large lead. But the senate race has been getting closer for the Ds. It seems like some ticket splitting is occurring.

That is true and a good point. TX does not have much recent history of significant ticket splitting, so if there is anything like a 20% difference between the GOV and SEN races, that would be a new thing and may indicate increasing elasticity in the Trump era among voters in the big mega cities.
Logged

O'Rourke today is probably the most far-left candidate out there. Running of Medicare-for-all, abolishing ICE, No PAC money along with positions like impeaching Trump. In 2018, O'Rourke is to the left of Sanders & Warren & Brown !

Senator Zaybay
Zaybay
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,254
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: August 27, 2018, 09:41:22 am »

Welp, I was right. God damn it Emerson.

I do find it interesting that in the polling we have so far, Abbott has opened up a large lead. But the senate race has been getting closer for the Ds. It seems like some ticket splitting is occurring.

That is true and a good point. TX does not have much recent history of significant ticket splitting, so if there is anything like a 20% difference between the GOV and SEN races, that would be a new thing and may indicate increasing elasticity in the Trump era among voters in the big mega cities.
Other cities, however, have not shown elasticity, and in fact have gotten only more inelastic. I think its more probable that the suburbs are swinging for Beto, but staying for Abbott. It could also point to some cities that are trending D, like Ft. Worth, voting for the D in the senate, but sticking with their roots for governor. I dont see Austin, Houston, Dallas, and El Paso voting R for governor.
Logged

Pages: [1] 2 3 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines