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  TX-SEN Emerson: Cruz +1
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Author Topic: TX-SEN Emerson: Cruz +1  (Read 2484 times)
TheRocketRaccoon
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« on: August 27, 2018, 08:01:02 am »

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Hindsight is 2020
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« Reply #1 on: August 27, 2018, 08:02:52 am »

Lol
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Torranski
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« Reply #2 on: August 27, 2018, 08:04:32 am »

Image Link
But Emerson
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Andy Beshear Have My Babies
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« Reply #3 on: August 27, 2018, 08:05:16 am »

Zaybay's poll prediction wasn't too far off, lol
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Politician
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« Reply #4 on: August 27, 2018, 08:05:21 am »

>e m e r s o n, but I expect this to be very close on election night.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #5 on: August 27, 2018, 08:05:35 am »

Itís Emerson with 20% undecideds
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Senate/SCOTUS/EC Delenda Est 👁
The Impartial Spectator
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« Reply #6 on: August 27, 2018, 08:08:47 am »


Yeah, too many undecideds to be particularly meaningful. Both candidates will definitely get more than 37/38...
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #7 on: August 27, 2018, 08:12:51 am »

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Skye
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« Reply #8 on: August 27, 2018, 08:18:39 am »

Okay Emerson.
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Torranski
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« Reply #9 on: August 27, 2018, 08:23:43 am »



I've heard a lot of noise about O'Rourke losing gettable voters by refusing to moderate, while Cruz loses voters due to his opportunism (flipping from opponent to supporter) surrounding Trump.
I wonder whether there's an effective strategy for the O'Rourke camp to spin this;
'Better to have principles that you can disagree rather than no principles at all.'
Play the Election of 1800 defense.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #10 on: August 27, 2018, 08:39:07 am »

Big if true.

I wouldn't be overstate the poll, though, because there are so many undecided. A good many of them are probably right-leaning and coming home on election day. But Cruz has reason to worry, no question. Polling under 40% with almost 100% name recognition is not a good sign.
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Senator Barbara Bollier
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« Reply #11 on: August 27, 2018, 08:47:11 am »

Well, I predicted a tie, so not far off. Too bad so many junk pollsters are polling this race.
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Alabama_Indy10
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« Reply #12 on: August 27, 2018, 08:48:20 am »

21% undecided? Lame
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #13 on: August 27, 2018, 09:02:41 am »

A good rule of thumb is to trash any poll that shows 20% or more undecided.
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #14 on: August 27, 2018, 09:13:07 am »

And I guess these undecided are 75% republicans?
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Use Your Illusion
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« Reply #15 on: August 27, 2018, 09:16:03 am »

I don't know about the poll credibility but the Cruz camp is going be crapping bricks if these figures hold out for another 6 weeks. The fact Cruz is barely eking out leads in titanium solid Republican Texas is showing just how apathetic that base is becoming to him. And with over 20% still undecided in a state THAT big is a damning figure. I can't believe I'm saying this but O'Rourke may just have better than a snowball's chance in hell if these figures hold deep into October. By then it's possible O'Rourke's campaign could see just enough of a surge via undecideds and apathetic Republicans who will not vote his way to put him over. But of course this is more a reflection of Cruz than it is anything else. Should O'Rourke win he and Doug Jones are gonna have the two hottest seats in the Senate. Still a lean/tilt R race at this point but I'll always cheer for new blood in the Senate.

Unless it's Rick Scott. He can heck off
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Zaybay
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« Reply #16 on: August 27, 2018, 09:16:18 am »

Welp, I was right. God damn it Emerson.

I do find it interesting that in the polling we have so far, Abbott has opened up a large lead. But the senate race has been getting closer for the Ds. It seems like some ticket splitting is occurring.
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mvd10
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« Reply #17 on: August 27, 2018, 09:20:11 am »

Beto not cracking the magic 60% Democrats need when the Russians are interfering, sad! Safe R.
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Use Your Illusion
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« Reply #18 on: August 27, 2018, 09:20:33 am »

And I guess these undecided are 75% republicans?

Probably. And probably deciding if they should either stay home or write-in. I don't know if O'Rourke has any blessings from other in-office or past candidates that might charge up the voting base but I'm not so sure he's gonna even need it now.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #19 on: August 27, 2018, 09:24:19 am »

Welp, I was right. God damn it Emerson.

I do find it interesting that in the polling we have so far, Abbott has opened up a large lead. But the senate race has been getting closer for the Ds. It seems like some ticket splitting is occurring.

Iíve seen speculation Crux could still be wounded from his non-endorsement at the 2016 RNC... this is more a theory about his diversion from Abbottís numbers rather than this junk poll, though
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Zaybay
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« Reply #20 on: August 27, 2018, 09:26:51 am »

Ok, I got some crosstabs, sort of

Image Link

18/34 years: 47/28 25% undecided

35/54 years: 45/37 18% undecided

55/74 years: 33/47 20% undecided

75+ years: 17/39  56% undecided

So it seems that the undecideds are rather good for the Dems, based on age alone. The 75 group is both worrying or promising, as they are rather D in the south, and are a split generation as a whole. The 55-74 form the GOP base, and its good that in the poll, Cruz already seems to be milking it, so its unlikely the margin can get bigger.

EDIT: I got the press release, though it doesnt have as much info as I would have liked.
https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-tx-aug2018-pr.pdf
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Use Your Illusion
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« Reply #21 on: August 27, 2018, 09:29:51 am »

Welp, I was right. God damn it Emerson.

I do find it interesting that in the polling we have so far, Abbott has opened up a large lead. But the senate race has been getting closer for the Ds. It seems like some ticket splitting is occurring.

^^^ Absolutely 100% this. We've had enough samples (good polls or not) to find out that Cruz is badly underperforming right now when all those samples (good polls or not) reflecting an expected margin for Abbot.

Oh my sweet, merciful Lord and Savior what I would not give to hear what Ann Richards would have say about all this right now. "Poor Ted Cruz.... he's finding the hard way that a true Texan from El Paso doesn't back down to anybody!"
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Use Your Illusion
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« Reply #22 on: August 27, 2018, 09:32:01 am »

Ok, I got some crosstabs, sort of

Image Link

18/34 years: 47/28 25% undecided

35/54 years: 45/37 18% undecided

55/74 years: 33/47 20% undecided

75+ years: 17/39  56% undecided

So it seems that the undecideds are rather good for the Dems, based on age alone. The 75 group is both worrying or promising, as they are rather D in the south, and are a split generation as a whole. The 55-74 form the GOP base, and its good that in the poll, Cruz already seems to be milking it, so its unlikely the margin can get bigger.

EDIT: I got the press release, though it doesnt have as much info as I would have liked.
https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-tx-aug2018-pr.pdf

Your theory on a vote split is definitely starting to hold some water here. I'm intrigued what the cross samples for Abbott are
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Senate/SCOTUS/EC Delenda Est 👁
The Impartial Spectator
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« Reply #23 on: August 27, 2018, 09:37:15 am »

Welp, I was right. God damn it Emerson.

I do find it interesting that in the polling we have so far, Abbott has opened up a large lead. But the senate race has been getting closer for the Ds. It seems like some ticket splitting is occurring.

That is true and a good point. TX does not have much recent history of significant ticket splitting, so if there is anything like a 20% difference between the GOV and SEN races, that would be a new thing and may indicate increasing elasticity in the Trump era among voters in the big mega cities.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #24 on: August 27, 2018, 09:41:22 am »

Welp, I was right. God damn it Emerson.

I do find it interesting that in the polling we have so far, Abbott has opened up a large lead. But the senate race has been getting closer for the Ds. It seems like some ticket splitting is occurring.

That is true and a good point. TX does not have much recent history of significant ticket splitting, so if there is anything like a 20% difference between the GOV and SEN races, that would be a new thing and may indicate increasing elasticity in the Trump era among voters in the big mega cities.
Other cities, however, have not shown elasticity, and in fact have gotten only more inelastic. I think its more probable that the suburbs are swinging for Beto, but staying for Abbott. It could also point to some cities that are trending D, like Ft. Worth, voting for the D in the senate, but sticking with their roots for governor. I dont see Austin, Houston, Dallas, and El Paso voting R for governor.
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