Come on down South, John Kerry!

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IGNORE THE SOUTH

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Odds Kerry will win a southern state: 10%

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I'd put it at 50% and that state is Arkansas. All of the other Southern states are unlikely.

He doesn't have a 50% chance at AR

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it was like 50-50 in the last poll.

...your point?  I doubt that will hold.

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I am moving Florida from lean Bush to solid Bush. etch it.

I can see that.  I say a 5% lead is solid...Bush may very well have a 5% lead in FL.  Right now I have FL as 'lean Bush'...something like a 4.5% lead there for him.

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ANALOGY TIME

Florida is to Kerry as Michigan is to Bush

etch IT.

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I like your prediction map and I am very curious as to where you got the base for that map Tweed. I see PA going Bush though. Check out my prediction map.

NOTE THE MAP IS FOR IF THE ELECTION WAS HELD TODAY

Right now I am holding Kerry at a one point lead.  I had Bush with a marginal lead a few days ago, and swinging one point or so to Kerry swung PA and NH, plus it solidifed (Kerry +5) Michigan, Minnesota, and Washington.

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Lunar,

You seem to be underestimating the GOP trend FL is undergoing.  In a 50-50 election I think Bush wins Florida by 5%.  And, in a 50-50 election, Kerry wins Michigan by 5%.

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All the polls have shows a deadheat in fact the latest poll shows Kerry up 50-47 (without Nader) 48-46 with Nader

I haven't seen that poll but I believe you.

Two things:

Mason-Dixon has Bush up eight...Mason-Dixon is the best polling firm in Florida because they grew up polling Florida.

Jeb's re-election by such a wide margin bodes well for Bush (GW).

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Bush Travels to Lousiana!

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Look at the picture


Silly looking