Come on down South, John Kerry! (user search)
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  Come on down South, John Kerry! (search mode)
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Author Topic: Come on down South, John Kerry!  (Read 5232 times)
Lunar
Atlas Superstar
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Posts: 30,404
Ireland, Republic of
« on: May 13, 2004, 07:16:38 PM »

...without looking like you're ignoring it.
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Lunar
Atlas Superstar
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Posts: 30,404
Ireland, Republic of
« Reply #1 on: May 15, 2004, 09:47:06 PM »
Quote from: Boss Tweed on May 14, 2004, 07:35:40 PM
Odds Kerry will win a southern state: 10%

I think Kerry's odds of winning in either Florida or Arkansas combined are greater than 10%.  Both are lean Bush but if things progress beyond a tight race then I think both will go to the winner.
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Lunar
Atlas Superstar
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Posts: 30,404
Ireland, Republic of
« Reply #2 on: May 15, 2004, 10:07:00 PM »
Quote from: StatesRights on May 15, 2004, 09:48:37 PM
I am moving Florida from lean Bush to solid Bush. etch it.

But Florida has the potential to be a Bellweather state in this election.  If Kerry wins by 4-5%, which is reasonably likely (say 20%), then I doubt Florida will stay Bush.
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Lunar
Atlas Superstar
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Posts: 30,404
Ireland, Republic of
« Reply #3 on: May 15, 2004, 10:15:31 PM »
Quote from: Boss Tweed on May 15, 2004, 10:09:38 PM
ANALOGY TIME

Florida is to Kerry as Michigan is to Bush


I don't agree.  I think Michigan will likely still go Kerry even if Bush wins by 5%, I don't think the same for Florida.  Florida could go to the winner by the same amount as West Virginia in this election, they look about the same right now.  I'm not sure if there is a comparison for Bush.
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Lunar
Atlas Superstar
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Posts: 30,404
Ireland, Republic of
« Reply #4 on: May 15, 2004, 10:23:46 PM »
« Edited: May 15, 2004, 10:24:03 PM by Lunar »
Quote from: Boss Tweed on May 15, 2004, 10:18:23 PM
Lunar,

You seem to be underestimating the GOP trend FL is undergoing.  In a 50-50 election I think Bush wins Florida by 5%.  And, in a 50-50 election, Kerry wins Michigan by 5%.

I think Bush is about +4% in Florida right now and Kerry +7% in Michigan.  However, since we are talking about any Southern State, Arkansas is a lot closer than Florida.  Kerry just needs to win by 4-5% to carry that, and that is higher than 10%.  All it takes for Kerry to win by that much is for a continual stream of bad news, or some luck with his campaign.  Bush's chances of winning big are probably about 30-35% while Kerry's about 20%.
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Lunar
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,404
Ireland, Republic of
« Reply #5 on: May 15, 2004, 10:33:57 PM »
I'm not depending on death, not do I want it.  However, if more happens then Kerry will do significantly better.  This means Florida and Arkansas are in play.  This comment doesn't represent desperation, just my interpretation of the facts.
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Lunar
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,404
Ireland, Republic of
« Reply #6 on: May 16, 2004, 11:13:51 AM »
Here are the three posted on the Atlas site (sorry it's not aligned):

Code:
Date     Poll Source     Kerry     Bush     Nader     Und     M.O.E.     #Polled
2004-05-12    Hamilton Beattie & Staff    48%    46%    3%    3%    3%    1,000
2004-04-22    ARG    45%    46%    3%    6%    4%    600
2004-04-13    Rasmussen    47%    46%    2%    5%    5%    500

Even Vorlon thinks that Mason-Dixon poll was a victim of margin of error.
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