Come on down South, John Kerry!

[??????????]

Odds Kerry will win a southern state: 10%

I'd put it at 50% and that state is Arkansas. All of the other Southern states are unlikely.

Please tell me why you think a Liberal Massachusetts Yankee is going to win Arkansas? lol

[??????????]

Odds Kerry will win a southern state: 10%

I think Kerry's odds of winning in either Florida or Arkansas combined are greater than 10%.  Both are lean Bush but if things progress beyond a tight race then I think both will go to the winner.

I am moving Florida from lean Bush to solid Bush. etch it.

[??????????]

I like your prediction map and I am very curious as to where you got the base for that map Tweed. I see PA going Bush though. Check out my prediction map.

[??????????]

Lunar,

You seem to be underestimating the GOP trend FL is undergoing.  In a 50-50 election I think Bush wins Florida by 5%.  And, in a 50-50 election, Kerry wins Michigan by 5%.

I think Bush is about +4% in Florida right now and Kerry +7% in Michigan.  However, since we are talking about any Southern State, Arkansas is a lot closer than Florida.  Kerry just needs to win by 4-5% to carry that, and that is higher than 10%.  All it takes for Kerry to win by that much is for a continual stream of bad news, or some luck with his campaign.  Bush's chances of winning big are probably about 30-35% while Kerry's about 20%.

That's sad really. Depending on more death to win a election! Are you Democrats really that desperate? When most start to tune in don't you think they will realize how wishy washy this Kerry dude is? This guy is a terrible candidate and his true colors will show before long.

[??????????]

I'm not depending on death, not do I want it.  However, if more happens then Kerry will do significantly better.  This means Florida and Arkansas are in play.  This comment doesn't represent desperation, just my interpretation of the facts.

Most Floridians I run into support this war as Florida is a BIG military state. I can't say anything about Arkansas though I imagine they suppor the war.

[??????????]

I am wondering where all this Florida is solid Bush talk is coming from.  All the polls have shows a deadheat in fact the latest poll shows Kerry up 50-47 (without Nader) 48-46 with Nader

Bush wins Florida. Kerry needs to forget about Florida and go elsewhere.