Minnesota State House projections

[pops]

when your district is 110th ;-;

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

34A
Trump 50.7
Hillary 40.4

Severson 60.2
Simon 34

Joyce Peppin (R) 65.9
Dave Craig (DFL) 34

This is one of the vacant seats. As you can see it had a big swing (Maple Grove voting for Hillary was odd, even though only a portion of it is in the district), but is still Safe R.

34B
Trump 43.2
Hillary 47.4

Severson 53.7
Simon 40.1

Dennis Smith (R) 55.8
Kristin Bahner (DFL) 44

This is the core of Maple Grove. A traditionally Republican area that flipped. However the DFL "won" the primary vote this year here in a landslide...I'm going to call this Lean R at best.

35A
Trump 53
Hillary 37.4

Severson 53.1
Simon 39.3

Abigail Whelan (R) 61.4
Andy Hillebregt (DFL) 38.5   

This is actually my favorite Republican in the legislature, because of the great speech she gave here. Wouldn't vote for her though. District is basically Safe R.

35B
Trump 55.1
Hillary 36.1

Severson 58.4
Simon 36

Peggy Scott (R) 64.7
Wes Volkenant (DFL) 35.2   

This is another standard Safe R seat, although we're getting into the metro and not just the fringes now.

36A
Trump 46.6
Hillary 43.7

Severson 50.6
Simon 41.2

Mark W. Uglem (R) 58.2   
Kevin Parker (DFL) 41.6

I'll call this Likely R. It would take quite the tidal wave to flip this, even if Trump isn't especially popular there.

36B
Trump 39.7
Hillary 51.7

Severson 47
Simon 46.4

Peter Crema (R) 44.1
Melissa Hortman (DFL) 55.7

In the current climate I'm going to call this one Safe DFL. This is the first real inner metro district.

37A
Trump 45.6
Hillary 45

Severson 45.1
Simon 47.1

Anthony Wilder (R) 44.5
Erin Koegel (DFL) 47.2
Brian McCormick (Libertarian) 8.2

This is probably the one metro district I'd give the Republicans a somewhat realistic chance of flipping, as it was a flip due to an arguable spoiler, and while not heavily Republican has quite the solid GOP base. Still...any Simon seat is a hard nut to crack, since he won with basically only DFL base voters in a year of diminished turnout amongst them. And then the climate. This is at worst Likely DFL.

37B
Trump 47.6
Hillary 43.3

Severson 52.5
Simon 41.5

Nolan West (R) 50.3
Susan Witt (DFL) 49.5

This district has always been kind of a tease for the DFL. I remember its then equivalent falling just short in 2006 and 2008. Still this is a base turnout battle seat, and the DFL "won" it in the primary by a landslide, and fell just short last time too. I'll say Tossup.

38A
Trump 50.7
Hillary 40

Severson 54.2
Simon 38.6

Linda Runbeck (R) 61.4
Kevin Fogarty (DFL) 38.5

Another pretty conservative Anoka County seat. Safe R.

38B
Trump 46
Hillary 44.9

Severson 53.3
Simon 40.2

Matt Dean   (R) 57
Ami Wazlawik (DFL) 43

Dean is truly trash. Unfortunately it's hard to see him losing in this seat, the only solidly Republican district mostly in Ramsey County. That swing is mostly due to the brutal swing against Trump in extremely affluent North Oaks. Still, the swing was there...Likely R.

39A
Trump 51.1
Hillary 40.5

Severson 52.8
Simon 40.9

Bob Dettmer (R) 61.4
Jody W. Anderson (DFL) 38.5

This is half of Karin Housley's district, and by the way, also the closest district to Michele Bachmann's old State Senate seat. Obviously Safe R.

39B
Trump 45.8
Hillary 45.5

Severson 50.6
Simon 42.7

Kathy Lohmer (R) 59
Alan Kantrud (DFL) 40.9

This half on the other hand...not quite so much. Compare the 2014 numbers in the two districts to the 2016 numbers and it should be clear that these two halves differ significantly. This is probably still a pretty strong Lean R, but I'll go with Lean.

40A
Trump 25.9
Hillary 67.2

Severson 34.1
Simon 59.2

We just jumped across the metro to obviously a very different place. This is a first ring suburb of Minneapolis and heavily non-white. Also DFL incumbent was unopposed in 2016. Safe DFL.

40B
Trump 27.4
Hillary 64.7

Severson 33.5
Simon 59.4

Mali Marvin (R) 30.2
Debra Hilstrom (DFL) 69.2

And same. Safe DFL.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

41A
Trump 35
Hillary 55.3

Severson 39.7
Simon 53

Gary R. Johnson   (R) 41.9
Carolyn Laine (DFL) 58

Wouldn't normally be a competitive seat, definitely not this year. Safe DFL.

41B
Trump 28.8
Hillary 61.5

Severson 35.2
Simon 56.6

Camden J. Pike (R) 36.5
Mary Kunesh-Podein (DFL) 63.2

This is actually a pretty white working class district, although I guess the immediate proximity to Minneapolis had a bigger effect on the swing. Safe DFL.

42A
Trump 37.9
Hillary 51.9

Severson 45.6
Simon 47.5

Randy Jessup (R) 50.2
Barb Yarusso (DFL) 49.6

So....guess what a top tier target for the DFL is?

I'm going to call this one Likely DFL.

42B
Trump 35
Hillary 55.5

Severson 42
Simon 51.4

Tracy Nelson (R) 42.9
Jamie Becker-Finn (DFL) 56.9

This district is closer to St. Paul. Safe DFL.

43A
Trump 37.7
Hillary 53.4

Severson 43
Simon 49.7

Bob Cardinal (R) 44.8
Peter M Fischer (DFL) 55

In this environment, pretty damn safe. Safe DFL.

43B
Trump 39
Hillary 51.9

Severson 41.9
Simon 50.2

Nathan Hansen (R) 40.2
Leon M. Lillie (DFL) 59.5

Same basically. Safe DFL.

44A
Trump 38.3
Hillary 52.8

Severson 52.6
Hillary 42.5

Sarah Anderson (R) 54
Ginny Klevorn (DFL) 45.82%   

This...is a very notable seat. Like just look at that swing. Johnson won this seat in 2014 too. But with this environment, hard to call it anything less than Lean DFL, especially since Paulsen has to be losing. This just screams Barbara Comstock.

44B
Trump 35
Hillary 56.6

Severson 43.8
Simon 51

Patti Meier (R) 44.9
Jon Applebaum (DFL) 54.9

Pretty safe DFL seat in an environment like this. Safe DFL.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

45A
Trump 33.2
Hillary 57.5

Severson 40.5
Simon 52.4

Richard Lieberman (R) 43
Lyndon R. Carlson (DFL) 56.8

This one just barely might be in reach in a wave year for the Republicans, but not this year. Safe DFL.

45B
Trump 27.2
Hillary 63.5

Severson 34.4
Simon 58.5

Alma J. Wetzker   (R) 31.7
Mike Freiberg (DFL) 68

Never would be competitive. Safe DFL.

46A
Trump 25.5
Hillary 65.8

Severson 32.5
Simon 61.7

Anne Taylor (R) 35.8
Peggy Flanagan (DFL) 63.9

Walz's running mate seat, and the candidate is the Rep who represented it before her. Would be Safe DFL regardless.

46B
Trump 23.1
Hillary 67.7

Severson 28.3
Simon 66.1

Bryan P. Björnson (R) 31
Cheryl Youakim (DFL) 68.7

This might be the safest seat outside the Twin Cities proper. Safe DFL.

47A
Trump 60.4
Hillary 31

Severson 62.9
Simon 30.3

Jim Nash (R) 71.5
Sean White (DFL) 28.4

This meanwhile is one of the most ancestrally Republican seats in the state, hasn't voted for a Democrat for President since 1932. Safe R.

47B
Trump 46.6
Hillary 43.7

Severson 59.7
Simon 34.5

Joe Hoppe (R) 62.45
Jane Montemayor (DFL) 37.4

I can't believe this seat is even potentially competitive. It's the other seat based in the uber-R Carver County, and used to be just as safe as the more rural half, George W. Bush won every single precinct in the county in 2004. However you can see the swing. This is a very affluent and educated district, and full of Trump backlash. And here's the amazing part: The DFL "won" the primary in Carver County this year. And this seat by a lot.

Still, might be just a bridge too far. I'm going to say Lean R, but if this one flips, it's a historic night.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

48A
Trump 36
Hillary 55

Severson 47.2
Simon 46.8

Mary Shapiro (R) 48.2
Laurie Pryor (DFL) 51.7

Another district with an insane swing. This is probably Safe DFL, interestingly it was actually DFL-held in 2014 as well.

48B
Trump 39
Hillary 52.3

Severson 54.9
Simon 40

Jenifer W. Loon (R) 62.3
Ben Sherlock (DFL) 37.6

That. Swing. This district actually voted straight R in 2014, even for the landslide losing opponents to Rebecca Otto and Lori Swanson.

Tossup. Hard one to call.

49A
Trump 32.1
Hillary 59.3

Severson 47.4
Simon 48.2

Dario Anselmo (R) 51
Ron Erhardt (DFL) 48.8

I actually go to church in this district. This is the single best Hillary held by a Republican. Here's what happened: Erhardt was a long time "moderate" Republican holding the seat since the 90s. In 2008 he lost the endorsement after his vote to override Pawlenty's veto of a gas tax increase proved key in overriding it. He promised not to run in the primary...and instead ran on a third party "Moderate Republican" ticket thus splitting the vote and letting a far right Republican win. Who then went on to narrowly win in the 2010 wave and get blown away in 2012 by a party changed Erhardt. Here's the problem: Erhardt was already 82 years old and should've just retired. He was challenged in the primary in 2016, but unfortunately won, and the party foolishly nominated someone who was 86 over someone who was 35.

That candidate is running again (Heather Edelson) and I've seen her signs everywhere around church. This is probably at least Likely DFL.

49B
Trump 36
Hillary 55.8

Severson 47.2
Simon 47.6

Max Rymer (R) 44.4
Paul Rosenthal (DFL) 55.4

This seat also just recently went vacant, but as you can see is not likely to flip, though it wouldn't be exactly safe in a bad DFL year. How things change, I remember when the Rep for this area was appointed by Pawlenty to some education position and not only was her seat an easy R hold it wasn't even considered in play. Safe DFL.

50A
Trump 29.7
Hillary 61.4

Severson 36.1
Simon 56.8

Tim Johnson (R) 36.5
Linda Slocum (DFL) 63.1

This one is safe. Safe DFL.

50B
Trump 35.9
Hillary 55

Severson 43
Simon 50.2

Chad Anderson (R) 46.2
Andrew Carlson (DFL) 53.5

This was technically a pickup though it was DFL won in 2014, the Republicans won it in a special election thanks to low turnout and the DFL candidate being a Bloomington City Council member who was linked to an unpopular property tax increase. Not flipping in a Trump midterm. Safe DFL.

51A
Trump 36.8
Hillary 53.8

Severson 44.9
Simon 48.7

Brad Gerten (R) 42
Sandra Masin (DFL) 57.6

I'm a bit surprised this is such a safe seat, the region most certainly doesnt seem like it'd be, but I won't complain. Safe DFL.

51B
Trump 36.6
Hillary 53.5

Severson 47.4
Simon 46.7

Pat Hammond (R) 43.4
Laurie Halverson (DFL) 56.5

This is actually the closest thing to Tim Pawlenty's district that he represented in the House. Oh how times change. Basically Safe DFL now.

52A
Trump 34.5
Hillary 56

Severson 40.27
Simon 52.7

Larry Sachi (R) 36.6
Rick Hansen (DFL) 63.3

This district is practically in St. Paul, so Safe DFL.

52B
Trump 41.6
Hillary 49.4

Severson 46.6
Simon 46.7

Regina Barr (R) 50.2   
Mary T'Kach (DFL) 49.6

I work here! Honestly I'm surprised Trump performed that well, although I guess Inver Grove Heights is traditionally working class. Angie Craig won this by six points in 2016 and will no doubt landslide here as well as all DFL candidates, and yeah obvious prime pickup opportunity. Lean DFL.

[Virginiá]

GOP Lawmaker Rips Mic From Democratic Candidate’s Hands During Debate

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/duane-quam-microphone_us_5bbd911ce4b028e1fe42f224
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GX2GJvmxoFo

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Duane Quam:

25A
Trump 52.4
Hillary 36.7

Severson 56.1
Simon 35.1

Duane Quam (R) 60
Linda (Wally) Walbruch (DFL) 40

As you can see, this district actually swung against Trump. It includes a chunk of Rochester and is effectively Rochester suburbia. Still pretty Republican. Honestly I'd still call it Safe R.

Edit:

Actually, I just now watched the full video, and it doesn't seem nearly as bad as the GIFs made it look. I originally saw this yesterday on reddit, and they cut it down to a gif with only him grabbing it away and then tossing it into her lap, so it looked like he just grabbed it to shut her up, then immediately threw it into her lap.

That's not what happened at all though. He was just impatient and grabbed it from her when normally she would have passed it to him prob within 10 seconds or so, and then he said his piece, and tried to hand it back to her, and she wouldn't take it, so he just tossed it into her lap.

I mean, don't get me wrong, he was very rude, but I think Democrats are spinning this more than it deserves to be.

[MAINEiac4434]

GOP Lawmaker Rips Mic From Democratic Candidate’s Hands During Debate

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/duane-quam-microphone_us_5bbd911ce4b028e1fe42f224
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GX2GJvmxoFo

You must be logged in to read this quote.

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Duane Quam:

25A
Trump 52.4
Hillary 36.7

Severson 56.1
Simon 35.1

Duane Quam (R) 60
Linda (Wally) Walbruch (DFL) 40

As you can see, this district actually swung against Trump. It includes a chunk of Rochester and is effectively Rochester suburbia. Still pretty Republican. Honestly I'd still call it Safe R.

LMAO someone yelled "Wow" when he threw it back at her.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Eh at most that'd change to Likely R. It's not the type of scandal that blows up like Knoblach.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So in regards to that St. Cloud seat: The GOP are not running a write-in campaign. Instead they seem to adopt a strategy of a "shadow campaign" to get people to vote for Knoblach and force a special election.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

53A
Trump 37.2
Hillary 54

Severson 42.5
Simon 50.6

Andy Turonie (R) 40.8
JoAnn Ward (DFL) 59

Not really interesting, Safe DFL.

53B
Trump 41.5
Hillary 50.2

Severson 53.6
Simon 41.6

Kelly Fenton (R) 56.4
Alberder Gillespie (DFL) 43.6

Another district with an insane swing. Like most districts of that swing, this is very affluent suburbia. I'm going to call it a Tossup.

54A
Trump 43.2
Hillary 46.4

Severson 43
Simon 49.1

Keith Franke (R) 51.4
Jen Peterson (DFL) 48.5

This kind of an odd district if you couldn't tell by the swing, despite the location it's pretty blue collar (old riverside industrial towns) and swung toward Trump, but has been willing to elect Republicans in the past too, that Republican whose speech against the gay marriage ban went viral was from here. There was actually a special election in the State Senate seat earlier this year and the Democrat won this seat in a landslide, but it was also a district she represented in the past, still a huge swing from presidential numbers. I actually doorknocked for this seat last weekend. Prime pickup, going to call it Lean DFL.

54B
Trump 48.2
Hillary 42.4

Severson 49.1
Simon 43.5

Tony Jurgens (R) 55.3
Don Slaten (DFL) 44.5

This is of course a far more Republican though also traditionally blue collar seat. It's not exactly safe, but I'm not too optimistic, I'll call it Lean R.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

55A
Trump 47.4
Hillary 43

Severson 54.1
Simon 38.3

Bob Loonan (R) 55.8
Mary Hernandez (DFL) 44

This doesn't look like a very competitive district despite that huge swing, but the DFL does seem to be making a play for it. Could be hoping to mobilize the Hispanic population in it more (it has a significant amount, possibly due to hiring at the Amazon distribution center in the area and some of the agricultural business in the area.) I'm going to call it Lean R.

55B
Trump 57.5
Hillary 34.1

Severson 61.3
Simon 32.1

Tony Albright (R) 69.1
Cecilia Haakenson (DFL) 30.8

This district meanwhile, clearly Safe R.

56A
Trump 43.7
Hillary 46.7

Severson 54.4
Simon 39.3

Drew Christensen (R) 56
Jared Christiansen (DFL) 43.9

And another huge swing. Got to love the 2016 candidate names too, LOL. I'll call this a Tossup.

56B
Trump 43.5
Hillary 48.2

Severson 51.8
Simon 41.9

Roz Peterson (R) 52.4
Lindsey Port (DFL) 47.4

This district didn't just have a monster swing, it also carried over to the actual State House seat. With the current environment I'll actually call this one Lean DFL.

[pops]

55B
Trump 57.5
Hillary 34.1

Severson 61.3
Simon 32.1

Tony Albright (R) 69.1
Cecilia Haakenson (DFL) 30.8

This district meanwhile, clearly Safe R.

INSIGHT TIME

This year's Democratic nominee is Matt Christensen (we have a last name problem in this area). He also ran for State House in another district a few years back. A conservative backlash to Albright is actually on the rise as a result of his vote for a bill that favored state funding for abortions. Without a third party candidate, however, it's likely that Albright will instead see the consequences of this - and his constant lack of campaigning - in a conservative Democrat, primary challenge, or third party candidate in 2020 or 2022.

Prediction:
Albright (R): 66%
Christensen (D): 34%

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

57A
Trump 42.3
Hillary 48.5

Severson 49.5
Simon 43.7

Ali Jimenez-Hopper (R) 47.5
Erin Maye Quade (DFL) 52.2

This was the only DFL pickup in the State House (not counting that seat that was DFL in 2014 but flipped in a special election) in 2016. The incumbent was Erin Murphy's running mate, so she's not running again, but I really can't see how it flips in this environment. Likely DFL.

57B
Trump 43.2
Hillary 47.7

Severson 51.5
Simon 42.2

Anna Wills (R) 53.7
John Huot (DFL) 46.2

Another obvious top target. I'll call it a Tossup, though Tilt DFL if I using that.

58A
Trump 51.5
Hillary 39.9

Severson 58.2
Simon 35.6

Jon Koznick (R) 60.7
LeAnn Weikle (DFL) 39.2

Despite the swing this is still Safe R. However the district does have a DFL State Senator, but that was a fluke, he was the popular mayor of Lakeville (city the district is based around) and just barely won in 2016. Without such an all star candidate, this is Safe R.

58A
Trump 56.5
Hillary 34.6

Severson 55.9
Simon 36.7

Patrick Garofalo (R) 64.8
Marla Vagts (DFL) 35.1

This portion of the district is more rural and thus didn't even have an anti-Trump swing. Also voted against the Lakeville mayor even in 2016. So even Safer R.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That's probably as far as I'm going to go. The remaining districts are all Twin Cities-based and thus all Safe DFL. The sole exception is 66A, which includes only a few specks of St. Paul and is mostly based in the suburb of Roseville, but even that is a Safe DFL seat Hillary won by over 40 points.

Tallies:

Safe R 39
Likely R 12
Lean R 9
Tossup 8
Lean DFL 4
Likely DFL 7
Safe DFL 55

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Prediction:

GOP gains:
None

DFL gains:
5A, 14B, 27A, 37B, 42A, 44A, 47B, 48B, 49A, 52B, 54A, 55A, 56A, 56B, 57B

DFL +15

DFL 72
GOP 62

[Badger]

FYI does anyone else agree that Mankato's State Senator totally looks like a Republican?

Him being a Democrat with his background (legal career largely spent representing labor unions) isn't odd, but he sure looks like someone you'd think was a Republican.

Um, no?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

FYI does anyone else agree that Mankato's State Senator totally looks like a Republican?

Him being a Democrat with his background (legal career largely spent representing labor unions) isn't odd, but he sure looks like someone you'd think was a Republican.

Um, no?

He kind of reminds me of Kavanaugh, I guess.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1060628915742482435?s=19

The Republicans lost EVERY SINGLE DISTRICT that was won by Hillary.