Decision 2008: Crossroads

[KaiserDave]

PRESIDENT McCAIN



Just Missed Him: Bin Laden Escapes Capture

A shock company of US Marines entered a small Afghan hamlet yesterday morning, under intelligence that Osama Bin Laden was staying there, after engaging in a brief firefight with armed men near the entrance of the town, and gunning down two grenade wielding attackers inside the town, it was revealed that Bin Laden had already left. Defense Secretary Gates said that Bin Laden's capture was one of the primary goals of the intervention, and that he would be brought to justice.

Clinton Rallies for Sestak, Lincoln

Senator Hillary Clinton visited Pittsburgh Pennsylvania and Little Rock Arkansas to campaign for Rep. Joe Sestak and Senator Blanche Lincoln. Hillary and Sestak both gave speeches to a large crowd, much larger than any normal rally for a senate campaign. In Little Rock, Hillary's old home state greeted her fondly, and there was a large crowd there too. Lincoln and Clinton both received roars of approval from the audience. There is still lots of speculation that Clinton is considering another presidential run in 2012. Sestak leads Toomey by 11 points in the newest CBS Poll, and according to the new Monmouth University Poll, Lincoln trails Boozman by 1.




Presidential Job Approval
Approve: 40%
Disapprove: 51%

Vice Presidential Job Approval
Approve: 37%
Disapprove: 56%

Generic Ballot Poll
Democrats: 52%
Republicans: 40%

Indiana Senate Poll
Evan Bayh: 50%
Dan Coats: 47%

Arkansas Senate Poll
John Boozman: 49%
Blanche Lincoln: 48%

North Dakota Senate Poll
John Hoeven: 52%
Byron Dorgan: 45%

[KaiserDave]

PRESIDENT McCAIN



Economy continues to flail, Unemployment at 10%

The economy has no good news, or at least that's how traders felt when they saw the new unemployment statistics. Unemployment has risen to 10.1%, and projected to reach 11% by 2011. Traders, shocked at the news, went into a panic, and the Dow Jones fell 811 points on the 15th. President McCain had a bipartisan lunch on the economy with Senators Lincoln, Dorgan, Hagan, Sherrod Brown, and Mark Pryor, as well as Republicans Snowe, Coleman, Hutchinson, and Collins. McCain and Senator Lindsey Graham worked to introduce a middle class tax reduction scheme to congress, to reduce rates and open new deductions for middle earners, but also capital gains cuts. It has not picked up Democratic support, but Senator Lincoln did voice her sympathies.

States Houses: Gubernatorial Races

While many have focused on the competitive races for Senate and House across the nation, many have pointed to close gubernatorial races from Kansas to Florida. In Florida, businessman Rick Scott faces CFO of Florida Alex Sink. Rick Scott has been on the defensive lately, defending his history in business, in which he pled the 5th 15 times in a Medicare fraud case. The campaign has been rough and abrasive, the RCP average has Sink up by 3. In Wisconsin, Milwaukee Executive Scott Walker faces Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett. This race has also been competitive and rough, with heavy spending on both sides. The RCP average has Barrett up by 5.



Presidential Job Approval
Approve: 41%
Disapprove: 52%

Vice Presidential Job Approval
Approve: 35%
Disapprove: 56%

Generic Ballot Poll
Democrats: 53%
Republicans: 41%

Indiana Senate Poll
Evan Bayh: 51%
Dan Coats: 47%

Arkansas Senate Poll
Blanche Lincoln: 50%
John Boozman: 47%


North Dakota Senate Poll
John Hoeven: 51%
Byron Dorgan: 47%

Pennsylvania Senate Poll
Joe Sestak: 54%
Pat Toomey: 43%

Louisiana Senate Poll
David Vitter: 54%
Charlie Melançon: 45%

[KaiserDave]

PRESIDENT McCAIN



Election Day: Turnout Rising

It's decision time 2010. It's been two years of the McCain presidency. It started for Republicans by snatching victory out of the jaws of defeat, and pulling off an amazing comeback in the 2008 election. But politics has been cruel to the McCain Presidency. They've had to deal with angry Democratic majorities in Congress, and they've been forced to give up a SCOTUS seat to a moderate, even liberal leaning Judge. The economy has continued to fail, and joblessness has only risen. President McCain has certainly worked to make the situation better, but he's been hampered by his allies in the White House like Steve Schmidt leaving, and an angry Republican base which dislikes him. Democrats feel optimistic about these elections, and hope to set the stage for a Democratic control of all three branches come 2012. Turnout this year is expected to surpass the 2006 mark of 36.8%, which has high already, and even reach 40%.

Show of Unity: McCain/Palin Rally for Flake

In this administration, many of doubted whether the Vice President and President actually work together. Few deny it was a political pick to galvanize conservatives, and most think that the Vice President does very little work in the administration. Some say she is preparing to bypass the President and run for President herself in 2012. But President McCain would have none of that at a rally in Tuscon. Senator Flake, the President, and Vice President gave speeches to a full house. Downtown, AG Terry Goodard, the Democrat was giving a speech with Senator Barack Obama, the house was packed like sardines. Sarah Palin's no apologies conservatism is a stark difference from the President's bridge-building bipartisanship. But for now, they remain united.



Presidential Job Approval
Approve: 40%
Disapprove: 53%

Vice Presidential Job Approval
Approve: 37%
Disapprove: 55%

Generic Ballot Final Poll
Democrats: 52%
Republicans: 43%

Indiana Senate Poll
Evan Bayh: 50%
Dan Coats: 47%

Arkansas Senate Poll
Blanche Lincoln: 47%
John Boozman: 47%


North Dakota Senate Poll
John Hoeven: 52%
Byron Dorgan: 47%

Pennsylvania Senate Poll
Joe Sestak: 54%
Pat Toomey: 43%

Louisiana Senate Poll
David Vitter: 55%
Charlie Melançon: 43%

Arizona Senate Poll
Jeff Flake: 50%
Terry Goodard: 48%

[KaiserDave]

DECISION 2010

[KaiserDave]

DECISION 2010

It's 8:00 and we have numerous projections to make. Senator Barack Obama will be reelected, still very popular in his home state. In Alabama, Richard Shelby will be reelected as Senator. Barbara Mikulski, the veteran, is reelected. In Connecticut, Congressman Chris Murphy will defeat wrestling promoter Linda McMahon in the race to replace Chris Dodd. In South Dakota, John Thune is unopposed and will be reelected. In Oklahoma, Tom Coburn will be reelected. But Senate races in Pennsylvania, Missouri, and New Hampshire are too early to call. But we do know that Representative Joe Sestak is leading in Pennsylvania, Representative Roy Blunt in Missouri, and New Hampshire Attorney General Kelly Ayotte is also leading.

John, what can you tell us about the too close to call elections?


Well, I'm looking at Pennsylvania. This was supposed to be a competitive race, but I'm looking at the county by county results, and I don't think Pat Toomey can put together the numbers to win this race.

Why is that?

Well, Sestak is clobbering Toomey for instance, in Bucks county, Philly suburbs. President McCain won this county by 4, but Representative Sestak is winning here by 12. And in Philadelphia, Sestak is posting high turnout and a 80 point margin here, and also in Erie county, the industrial heartland, Sestak leads by 7. Scranton area, Lackawanna and Luzerne counties, Sestak leads by low double digits. I don't see Toomey getting this race together. Also watching Indiana, where Senator Bayh leads Senator Coats by 3. This has been a sleeper race, with so many close races it's kinda gone under the RADAR. We're looking at a mixed bag of returns left to go, there's some stuff from Gary and the Indianapolis Metro Area, but also vast swaths of rural Indiana. So this could get tighter, but I'd rather be in Senator Bayh's headquarters than Senator Coat's.

Thank you John. Very, very close races.

It's 8:30 and we're projecting a Democratic victory in Pennsylvania. Joe Sestak will defeat Pat Toomey, possibly by double digits, but definitely by a considerable margin. In North Carolina, Senator Burr will hold on as expected. We're also saying the Blanche Lincoln vs John Boozman Senate race in Arkansas is too close to call. In Ohio, Rob Portman narrowly leads Lee Fisher by 4, and in Kentucky, with 87% reporting, Rand Paul leads Jack Conway by 3. And in Missouri, Congressman Blunt leads by 5. In Florida, too early to call. We have a three way race. The up and coming Marco Rubio has inspired a lot of enthusiasm among Cuban Americans, he's leading Independent and Former Republican Charlie Crist, and Democrat Kendrick Meek. There was speculation Meek would drop out, and he has not. Rubio leads Crist by about 11, but there's certainly a lot of results left out there. And right now, here's a shot of Joe Sestak's election headquarters, where the Representative is addressing his supporters. Certainly a lot of jubilation.

[KaiserDave]

DECISION 2010

It's 9:00 and we have a Key Race Alert.

We're projecting four races. The Kansas Senate race for Republican Jerry Moran, no surprise there. In Colorado the appointee Michael Bennet, no surprise, in New York, DSCC head Chuck Schumer is reelected. And in a small surprise, Russ Feingold defeats businessman Ron Johnson. This looked competitive a long way out, but Senator Feingold looks to be winning comfortably. And lastly, the Louisiana Senate Election between Senator Vitter and Congressman Melançon is too early to call. What's going on in Wisconsin John?

Well, if we look at the cities. Dane County, Madison. Senator Feingold carrying 86% of the vote, with voter turnout actually exceeding 2006 by a lot. Some of that is due to population growth, but also, a very large increase. Look at Milwaukee County, Feingold carrying 72% of the vote, with turnout almost, around, I dare say 2008 levels, not there, but high. He doing well in western counties on the border with Minnesota, carrying most or running it even, and he's doing decent in Northern Wisconsin, Ron Johnson just doesn't have a path to victory.

Alright, we also have another projection. We're saying that Kelly Ayotte will win the New Hampshire Senate race, an important hold for the Republicans, but not very surprising, she's held large polling leads for some time. And alright, we've got something else. Another hold for the Republicans, Florida is going to Marco Rubio. He's been the Cuban Obama by some, he's gathered large Cuban-American enthusiasm, and he's been helped by an independent splitting the vote. He's won his Senate race against former Republican Charlie Crist, the independent, and the Democrat Kendrick Meek. Rubio is carrying 40%, and Crist is holding 36% of the vote, Meek 23% of the vote. It looks close, but the remaining vote is coming out of the conservative panhandle, there's a lot of vote still out of Broward and Miami-Dade county, but literally nothing is out of some of these panhandle counties yet, so we feel comfortable giving it to Rubio, given Crist and Meek will split that vote in Miami.

It's 9:45, and we've got a major projection, we're saying in Ohio, Rob Portman will win, though closer than expected against Lee Fisher, but a key hold for the Republicans. But in Indiana, Senator Evan Bayh has won the senate race against Former Senator Dan Coats. Dan Coats will not win his former Senate, Senator Bayh has won. This is a massive win for Democrats, and Senator Bayh is certainly victorious.

[KaiserDave]

DECISION 2010

It's 10:00 and we have a Key Race Alert.

We're projecting several races. In Iowa, the veteran Chuck Grassley will return to the Senate. In Idaho, Mike Crapo wins overwhelmingly, in Oregon, Ron Wyden is victorious, in Utah, the young Mike Lee is elected. In Nevada, the Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is reelected over his conservative insurgent opponent Sharon Angle. And we can also project now the Democrats will control the Senate, they will have well over the 51 seats required for the Democrats to win the Senate. This is not unexpected, but a huge victory for Democrats nonetheless. But also, in Arizona, round two between Jeff Flake and Terry Goodard is too close to call. And the North Dakota Senate race between Byron Dorgan and John Hoeven is too early to call.

John, let's check in on the House? What we looking at?

Well, coming into this election, Democrats held 255 seats to the Republicans 181. We've already projected Democrat house control, but as of this time, 10:15, Democrats have a net gain of 19 seats. They've picked up Alabama-2, in southeast Alabama, typically ruby red area. Bobby Bright the Mayor of Montgomery, he's defeated incumbent Jay Love, who he lost to narrowly in 2008. In Kansas-2, Nancy Boyda fight for her old seat, she lost in 2008, we've just projected here as the winner. In Virginia-5, remember this one? Tom Perriello lost by .7% to incumbent Virgil Goode. Right now, in round 2, Mr. Perriello is leading Mr. Goode by 7 points!

Have we made a determination in that race?

I think we just have, Mr. Perriello will win. And nationally, we're looking at what some would call a blue wave. Democrats won the House national vote by 7.1% in 2008, they're leading by 11% right now. They're on track to 30, maybe more gains in the House.

Thank you John, we now have another key race alert.

Roy Blunt the Republican will win the Missouri Senate race over Ms. Carnahan. He will win narrowly, by about 3 or 4 points, but he is the winner, a key hold for Republicans, but only a consolation prize, for an otherwise, really a bad night for Republicans.

It's almost 11:00, and we can project that Rand Paul, the doctor and conservative firebrand, will defeat Jack Conway in the Kentucky Senate race. And boy, this one is close. Only .9% separates either candidate. It's taken 5 hours to ascertain the results here. 98% is reporting, and there's only around 4,000 votes left out there, with Mr. Paul up by 12,000 votes. So the retiring Jim Bunning, his seat will be filled by a fellow Republican.
It's 11:00 and we can make some major projections. California, Barbara Boxer defeats former HP CEO Carly Fiorina. Washington, Senator Murray, she wins.

Wolf, I think we've got something else too.

What's going on John?

In Arkansas, we're looking at 87% reporting, and Senator Blanche Lincoln, she started the night down by about 9%, we had GOP strategists giddy about this night earlier, as they were giddy about a year ago. But at around 10 o'clock, Senator Lincoln took the lead, with eastern counties, Little Rock reporting. And she hasn't given it up, Congressman Boozman is down by about 3 points, close to 4 points. He's still down, and only a few western counties, favorable to Mr. Boozman are left to report.

Hold on John, we have a major projection. Blanche Lincoln, the Senator from Arkansas will win reelection. This is a huge win for Democrats, and a big disappointment for Republicans. This was considered a top pickup target, but Senator Lincoln, winning almost comfortably. Here's a shot of her campaign headquarters now, with the Senator.

[UWS]

I guess Flake has the edge in Arizona as his fellow Arizonan McCain is President and surely stukped for him during the midterms, right?

[KaiserDave]

I guess Flake has the edge in Arizona as his fellow Arizonan McCain is President and surely stukped for him during the midterms, right?

Sure
But as did Obama to Alexi Giannoulias
Who was defeated by Mark Kirk

[KaiserDave]

DECISION 2010

It's Midnight, and well, it's certainly been a very long night. We still have three Senate seats outstanding, and we can project one more, no surprise. Daniel Inouye, has represented Hawaii in the Senate since 1963. He is reelected, with over 80% of the vote. But John, tell us about House races, where do we stand.

Well almost every race has been called, including Hawaii's and Alaska's districts. But there are a few very close races left to be called. Right now Democrats are sitting on a net gain of 31 seats. From Alabama to Kansas, to Michigan. So Democrats right now, Well look at this, , Democrats at 286 seats. Overwhelming win for Democrats, look at this. Walt Minnick, another who lost in 2008 trying again, he lost by 9, here is taking another crack at it. Leading Republican nominee, as the incumbent was retiring, Raul Labrador by 1%. With 92% of precincts reporting, so Minnick leads by 3,000 votes, very very close. But almost looking at another pickup for the Democrats. And look at the gubernatorial races. Everyone said Florida was gonna be a very close race, but state CFO Alex Sink has defeated Rick Scott by 5 points. It was called relatively early, a far cry from 2000. In Wisconsin, conservative insurgent Scott Walker lost by 9. Democrats picked up Minnesota, California, Vermont, and Connecticut, but those were low hanging fruit. They also picked up Nevada, Brian Sandoval, though popular loses by 3. Also pretty close in Idaho and Alaska, though Idaho has gone to the GOP and Alaska is still too early to call, looks like it will be close. The Democrats held key states like Arkansas, Arizona where Janet Napolitano has been reelected. The Democrats have sent Georgia to a runoff, and in South Dakota, it's a real close race, Republican Mike Rounds leads by 9, but there's still some Democratic vote out. We shall see.



We also now have an interesting projection, it's a minute to midnight, we can call the Alaska Senate race for Lisa Murkowski. She lost the Republican primary to conservative Joe Miller, but ran as a write-in, promising to be an Independent Senator, caucusing with the Republicans. She will defeat Joe Miller, by about 10%. A pretty historic win, a pretty comfortable margin.

Let's look at the map.

So, wow. It's a real late night now, past 1 o'clock. Just to review, we're not at a Democratic pickup of 34 seats, bringing them to a total of 289 Seats. A massive almost, 70 seat majority, still with about 6 seats going to recounts and counting absentee ballots in Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Ohio. But now, let's check out these three crazy Senate races.

Alright, Wolf. I'll just show you, here are the margins.

Louisiana Senate Race
Sen. David Vitter-50%
Rep. Charlie Melançon-49%

North Dakota Senate Race
Gov. John Hoeven-51%
Sen. Byron Dorgan-48%

Arizona Senate Race
Sen. Jeff Flake-50%
AG. Terry Goddard-49%

In Louisiana, wow. Well, this was a long campaign. Congressman Melançon went after Senator Vitter for his prostitution scandal, and Vitter tried to paint Mr. Melançon as a liberal out of touch with the state's values. What's going on John?

Well, we've got about 2% left to report, a combination of precincts from Baton Rouge and conservative Northern Louisiana. So, really no way to know if Melançon has the vote to take the lead, or Senator Vitter will hold on. In North Dakota, a rare chance for a Republican pickup, the popular Governor John Hoeven leads Senator Dorgan by 3%, but we're hesitant to call it given the outstanding vote from Bismarck. Arizona, well that's going down to the wire. Earlier last year, Senator Flake won a special election against Mr. Goddard narrowly, now he's up by .4%. We're waiting on the recount and absentee ballots. But wait, wow! New votes in from Louisiana, and well you take a look, Mr. Melançon has taken the lead! Wow! And in North Dakota, we're at 99% reporting, Governor Hoeven leading by 1.2%. Wait, well, Wolf you're going to tell me something.

Yes I am, we're saying the Democrats will get their first pickup of the night, Louisiana, congressman Charlie Melançon will defeat Senator David Vitter, there will be a recount, but unless something major changes. Senator Vitter has lost, wow. And in North Dakota, the Republicans match them with a win, Governor Hoeven will defeat Senator Dorgan. So right now, Democrats are sitting on a caucus of 59 seats, and Republicans on a caucus of 40. Here's the map.

[KaiserDave]

DECISION 2010

HARRY'S DONE IT-DEMOCRATS WIN NATIONWIDE

Last night was a staggering blow for the White House. Many Republican strategists couldn't believe the scope of their defeats in some states and districts Republicans thought we be no-sweat victories. Democrats have won a confirmed total of 59 Senate Seats, including Independent Bernie Sanders. Republicans are sitting on 40 Senate Seats. Democrats shockingly won the Louisiana Senate election, and held Republicans off in Arkansas, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, they also gave Republicans a run for their money in the McCain states of Ohio, Kentucky, and Missouri. The Arizona Senate race remains undecided. As it stands, Senator Jeff Flake leads Attorney General Terry Goddard by .2%, or 3,424 votes. There are still many absentee and provisional ballots to be counted, and an automatic recount. There are estimated to be 11,000 absentee and provisional ballots out there, so there is still a great deal of uncertainty. In the House of Representatives, Democrats gained 37 seats, so there are 292 seats in total. This leaves Republicans at a measly 143 seats. Across the nation, longstanding Republicans were swept aside. Congressman Virgil Goode, a congressman elected in 1996, was defeated soundly by Tom Perriello, who won by 9 points. In gubernatorial elections, promising Republicans like John Kasich and Rick Scott were defeated by 8 and 4 points respectively. The President reportedly spoke to Former White House Chief of Staff, Steve Schmidt, who he reportedly speaks to regularly, and told him that he felt he was already a lame duck. Press Secretary Ed Gillespie spoke to the media in the morning, and said the following.
"We are not going to deny what the American people voted for this afternoon. They are clearly frustrated and angry. And the President makes it his personal responsibility to make sure they are worked for every day, and that their concerns are addressed. The President is ready to work with the Democrats on everything from immigration to taxes. But the President, will not be cowed into letting congressional Democrats govern. The President has a mandate to govern, and will."
Vice President Palin was reportedly enraged by the result, specifically by Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski defeating Palin-endorsed Joe Miller, and also leaving the Republican Party to caucus with them as an independent. Senator Harry Reid said at his victory speech that,
"The people have spoken, and they've spoken loudly and clearly. They are sick and tired of two wars dragging on, an economy in shambles, and an erratic and unstable White House."

President Speaks, Admits: We lost

President John McCain spoke to a crowded press room on the results of the midterm elections. He spoke at lengths about Republicans who won, especially Marco Rubio of Florida, and Rob Portman of Ohio. He praised Senator Flake, but also acknowledged, he lost this election, badly.
"The American people spoke decisively tonight. And I'm not going to ignore it, it is incumbent upon me to serve every American, even if they voted against me tonight. But I will continue to always put country first, and work for the American people first."
He then spoke at length about Senator Graham's tax plan to reduce rates across the board, and how Senator Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, soon to be joined in the Senate by congressman Melançon, had signed onto it. But the President was clearly distraught, and his struggles with congress will only persist.

[KaiserDave]

DECISION 2010

60 Seats-Flake Loses Out in Recount

The recount and absentee ballots came in, and the results have resulted in AP declaring Attorney General Terry Goddard the winner, it was extremely close. But after a recount resulted in adding 641 votes to Goddard's column and then 6,029 absentee ballots going to him, he was declared the winner. Senator Flake waited it out until Thanksgiving, but then after an unsuccessful attempt in court to overturn the recount results, conceded. This solidifies the next Senate like this:

Democrat: 59
Republican: 39
Independent Republican: 1
Independent Democrat: 1

The Democratic caucus with 60 seats, and Republicans with 40. A 20 seat difference, which is quite astonishing. Democrats reportedly, are preparing to push banking reform, healthcare, and jobs to the President's desk, reportedly forcing him to veto popular bills, or face conservative backlash.

Here is a list all of all incumbent and incoming Senators:



Alabama
Jeff Sessions (R)
Richard Shelby (R)
Alaska
Mark Begich (D)
Lisa Murkowski (I)
Arizona
Jon Kyl (R)
Terry Goddard (D)
Arkansas
Mark Pryor (D)
Blanche Lincoln (D)
California
Dianne Feinstein (D)
Barbara Boxer (D)
Colorado
Mark Udall (D)
Michael Bennet (D)
Connecticut
Chris Murphy (D)
Richard Blumenthal (D)
Delaware
Tom Carper (D)
Joe Biden (D)
Florida
Bill Nelson (D)
Marco Rubio (R)
Georgia
Saxby Chambliss (R)
Johnny Isakson (R)
Hawaii
Daniel Akaka (D)
Daniel Inouye (D)
Idaho
Jim Risch (R)
Mike Crapo (R)
Illinois
Dick Durbin (D)
Barack Obama (D)
Indiana
Richard Lugar (R)
Evan Bayh (D)
Iowa
Tom Harkin (D)
Chuck Grassley (R)
Kansas
Pat Roberts (R)
Jerry Moran (R)
Kentucky
Mitch McConnell (R)
Rand Paul (R)
Louisiana
Mary Landrieu (D)
Charlie Melançon (D)
Maine
Olympia Snowe (R)
Susan Collins (R)
Maryland
Ben Cardin (D)
Barbara Mikulski (D)
Massachusetts
Martha Coakley (D)
John Kerry (D)
Michigan
Debbie Stabenow (D)
Carl Levin (D)
Minnesota
Amy Klobuchar (D)
Norm Coleman (R)
Mississippi
Roger Wicker (R)
Thad Cochran (R)
Missouri
Claire McCaskill (D)
Roy Blunt (R)
Montana
Jon Tester (D)
Max Baucus (D)
Nebraska
Ben Nelson (D)
Mike Johanns (R)
Nevada
John Ensign (R)
Harry Reid (D)
New Hampshire
Jeanne Shaheen (D)
Kelly Ayotte (R)
New Jersey
Bob Menendez (D)
Frank Lautenberg (D)
New Mexico
Jeff Bingaman (D)
Tom Udall (D)
New York
Hillary Clinton (D)
Charles Schumer (D)
North Carolina
Kay Hagan (D)
Richard Burr (R)
North Dakota
Kent Conrad (D)
John Hoeven (R)
Ohio
Sherrod Brown (D)
Rob Portman (R)
Oklahoma
Jim Inhofe (R)
Tom Coburn (R)
Oregon
Jeff Merkley (D)
Ron Wyden (D)
Pennsylvania
Bob Casey Jr. (D)
Joe Sestak (D)
Rhode Island
Sheldon Whitehouse (D)
Jack Reed (D)
South Carolina
Lindsey Graham (R)
Jim DeMint (R)
South Dakota
Tim Johnson (D)
John Thune (R)
Tennessee
Bob Corker (R)
Lamar Alexander (R)
Texas
Kay Bailey Hutchison (R)
John Cornyn (R)
Utah
Orrin Hatch (R)
Mike Lee (R)
Vermont
Bernie Sanders (I)
Patrick Leahy (D)
Virginia
Jim Webb (D)
Mark Warner (D)
Washington
Maria Cantwell (D)
Patty Murray (D)
West Virginia
Joe Manchin (D)
Jay Rockefeller (D)
Wisconsin
Herb Kohl (D)
Russ Feingold (D)
Wyoming
John Barrasso (R)
Mike Enzi (R)

[KaiserDave]

PRESIDENT McCAIN



Don't Ask Don't Tell Repealed

President John McCain met with the bipartisan team that drafted the Don't Ask, Don't Tell Repeal bill, to and then had a public bill signing, to finally scrap the unpopular, and odious policy. Senator Snowe, Collins, and Murkowski were Republicans for the bill. While the Democrats all voted for, save appointee and now elected Senator Joe Manchin. Then Senator McCain had opposed it, but now, apparently in a bid to get something done through bipartisan means, happily signed it and praised its passing. The Lame Duck Senate passed the bill, and also appears McCain and the Democrats have agreed to a budget roughly similar to the last, despite the objections of conservatives.

New START Treaty? Not so fast

With the original START arms reduction treaty soon expiring, American and Russian negotiators have been in lengthy negotiations. However, recently, President McCain has reportedly been demanding much looser regulations on the US missile defense system, Secretary of State Joe Lieberman said that:
"The United States is committed to a strong national defense, the President has made this very clear to the Russian ambassadors."

The negotiations go on. Senator John Kerry, Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee was very clear that a deal should and must be reached, saying:
"The President must sit and make a deal. It would be dangerously irresponsible to abandon this landmark diplomatic achievement."
The negotiations go on.

VP Palin Tapes

The Vice President has come under heavy fire for almost the whole of the past two years for gross incompetence, and even of mental instability by some. Pictured above at a rally for Alaska Senate candidate Joe Miller, she's spent half her term campaigning for conservatives, rallying support from evangelicals, and going to much less public events than Vice President Gore, and even Vice President Cheney. She appears more on a political campaign than being Vice President. She has gone to Ottawa, where she met Prime Minister Harper, she went to Paris to meet President Sarkozy, and to Japan, Indonesia, and Australia. But her roles have been limited, some have accused the White House of hiding her. But new tapes have emerged, putting her under more fire. A tape has been leaked of the Vice President talking to unsuccessful Republican candidate Blake Farenthold, before the election, whom she did a rally for. The tape has sparked outrage from the Democratic leaders, and even Republicans like Norm Coleman, Susan Collins, Olympia Snowe, and specifically Lisa Murkowski. Here are the tapes:

Farenthold: I mean, that B***H, Lisa Murkowski. Such a b***h. What the hell is she doing? You really gotta stop her, she's a f***ing socialist.
Palin: I know, I know. She's a democrat, and you know, we're gonna beat her. We need somebody like you Blake, we gotta beat her. We gotta beat em all.
Farenthold: Oh yeah. We're gonna send em packing, they're all gonna end up like Hussein Obama. All of em.

Press Secretary Ed Gillespie said that the FBI was working to authenticate the tapes. There has been no comment from the Vice President's office.





Presidential Job Approval
Approve: 42%
Disapprove: 50%

Vice Presidential Job Approval
Approve: 37%
Disapprove: 57%

[2016]

McCain is going to face a NIGHTMARE in the new Congress. Democrats can now basically do whatever they want.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Veto-proof House supermajority.

[KaiserDave]

PRESIDENT McCAIN



New Senate Sworn In

The new Senators were sworn in yesterday, as the new year began. Freshman Senators include Kelly Ayotte (R-NH), Roy Blunt (R-MO), Terry Goddard (D-AZ), John Hoeven (R-ND), Charlie Melançon (D-LA), Marco Rubio (R-FL), Rob Portman (R-OH), Joe Sestak (D-PA), Chris Murphy (D-CT), and Mike Lee (R-UT). The new Senators and Representatives sound got to work, and there is much to do. The Lindsey Graham tax plan, while not any kind of comprehensive reform, is still languishing on the floor with only the support of Senator Ben Nelson and Mary Landrieu from the Democrats, and most Republicans, save Richard Lugar, who apparently has not made up his mind. On the issue of energy, Mary Landrieu and Charlie Melançon, both on the energy committee, have both began the new session by clamoring for more offshore drilling. However, some members of their own party have denounced it, like Senator Russ Feingold, Senator Martha Coakley, and Senator Sheldon Whitehouse have vigorously disagreed. While Senator Murkowski spoke in agreement, and about drilling in Alaska.

Ice Cold: McCain in Moscow

President McCain, Senator Lindsey Graham, and Secretary of State Joe Lieberman landed in Moscow yesterday, to an honor guard presented by President Dimitry Medvedev. After some ceremony in the Kremlin, President McCain, the Senator, as well as the Secretary of State and staff entered START treaty talks with the President, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, and Ambassador Sergey Kislyak and staff. Reportedly, President McCain was furious they did not meet Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, widely believed to be the real authority in Moscow. Additionally, the talks reportedly achieved nothing, with Senator Graham reportedly exploding numerous times. However, this morning, President McCain got an impromptu invitation to the Putin's offices, where they meet, shook hands, and took questions before the camera. But it was clear that the two men hated each other, President McCain actively talked about his concerns about Russian expansionism, and dictatorship, while Putin actively, restraining his anger, debunking McCain's claims. However, the day was not wasted. President McCain had one-on-one talks with Prime Minister Putin, and Secretary of State Lieberman said they had hammered out the details of a deal. Though it was tenuous.


Presidential Job Approval
Approve: 43%
Disapprove: 51%

Vice Presidential Job Approval
Approve: 39%
Disapprove: 58%

[KaiserDave]

PRESIDENT McCAIN



Democratic Tax Plan in the Mix

Democrats in congress have been working on a new tax plan, what Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus (D-MT) is calling "top down reform and restructuring." In the House, the Chairman of the House Financial Services Committee Barney Frank (D-MA), the co-author of the Dodd-Frank financial reform bill, which the President slew is working with Senator Baucus and Majority Leader Steny Hoyer on a large scale tax bill. In a press conference, Senators Rockefeller (D-WV), Nelson (D-FL), and Senator Feingold (D-WI), representing the progressives, and Senator Lincoln (D-AR), representing moderates, outlined the basic outlines for their plan. Which were the following:
1. Cut Payroll Taxes for 1 Year
2. Extend Bush Tax Cuts for all except family earners making +250,000, and individuals making +200,00
3. Retain and Expand some Unemployment Benefits

Contrast this with the Graham-Burr Tax Plan which has these three main tenants:
1.Reduce Corporate Tax from 35% to 25%
2. Extend Bush Tax Cuts for all into 2018
3. Reduce Food Stamp Spending by 9 Billion over 10 years, and 20 hour work requirement

While not admitted, it is believed Senator Reid plans to pass the plan with 60 votes, and possibly Senator Murkowski, who says she remains undecided, and then Speaker Pelosi has well over the votes necessary to pass it. Reportedly, they want to force the President to veto their plan, and see an effect similar to the Dodd-Frank veto, where the President's favorables fell. Senator Schumer has disputed that claim, saying, "This is bogus. We want to pass a tax plan that will work for every American, the way this administration has worked is that the rich get billions and the rest of us get squat. We're gonna pass a tax plan, and we're gonna get the President to pass it."

However, some doubt whether Senator Reid has 60 votes. Senator Nelson (D-NE) has said he wants a bipartisan conference to hash out a compromise, and Senator Landrieu has already met with Senator Hutchinson, and announced her support for the Graham-Burr plan, but under several caveats. These would include several "earmarks" for Louisiana, nearly 250 Million in funds for Louisiana. Former Senator Flake, reportedly already eyeing Senator Kyl's seat, who is rumored to be considering retirement, has derided the Graham-Burr plan for being "filled up to here with pork, unnecessary, irresponsible, dangerous pork." But sitting Senators are angry too. Senator Coburn derided the plan as wasteful, and announced his opposition. Senator DeMint agreed, but didn't announce outright opposition.

Taliban Squashed: Kahandar Attack a Disaster

The City of Kandahar in Southern Afghanistan, near the border with Pakistan, was attacked by Taliban forces as a part of large February country wide offensive. However, the attack was in vain. As the attack was snuffed out after a day's fighting. 200 Taliban Insurgents attacked the city of half a million, but the attack was defeated after the swift mobilization of 1,000 US Army soldiers, and 100 Afghan policemen. The city of Kahandar has been a focus of the US command, and the attackers were utterly routed. 1 American soldier was killed, 8 were wounded. 12 Afghan policemen were killed, 4 were wounded. 2 civilians were killed and 48 wounded. The Taliban suffered far greater casualties, 54 were killed and 19 captured. At the start of his term, President McCain pledged 20,000 new US troops to Afghanistan, all of them are still in Afghanistan. And the President pledged 5,000 more men in October 2010. They are all in Afghanistan. Defense Secretary Gates applauded the victory as proof that "the Taliban is breaking, and we are breaking it." President McCain spoke to troops in the White House, and plans to fly out to Kabul for talks with Hamid Karzai and too meet soldiers next weekend.


Presidential Job Approval
Approve: 44%
Disapprove: 49%

Vice Presidential Job Approval
Approve: 39%
Disapprove: 57%

[KaiserDave]

PRESIDENT McCAIN



Ben Nelson filibusters Dem Tax Plan

Senator Ben Nelson announced that he would filibuster any Democratic tax plan that didn't include cuts to the corporate tax, or a work requirement for food stamps. The conservative Democrat, the most conservative in the Senate, even rated more conservative than Senators Collins, Coleman, Snowe, Murkowski, and sometimes, even Senator Lugar. He said that he was supporting the GOP tax plan tentatively. Senator Feingold and Sanders held their own press conference, in which they proposed a vast tax loophole closure scheme, and hiking the capital gains tax. Senator Feingold, Sanders, and Obama are the only ones who have signed on. And Senator Obama is apparently trying to moderate it and bridge it with the Democratic proposal. Meanwhile, Senator Reid had a meeting with on the fence Senator Mark Pryor, and then with Senator Clinton, Murray, Schumer, and Casey Jr. Casey Jr. has said he supports the Democratic plan, with some reservations. There appears to be little in the way of bipartisan discussion, but Senator Begich and Lincoln met with Senator Collins and Murkowski.

Palin: Going Rogue

Sarah Palin is one of the most odiously unpopular Vice Presidents in the modern history of the Republic. Second only to Dick Cheney. She's also very polarizing. Those who approve of her, love her. Those who disapprove, despise her. Of the 39% of registered voters who approve of her, 34% strongly approve. Of the 56% who disapprove, 51% strongly disapprove. What has the Vice President spent two years doing? She's spent very little time pushing the President's agenda, or legislation. She's gone on few foreign trips. She's spent a decent amount go time doing ceremonial Vice Presidential activities, she's also spent a good deal of time in Alaska. She's done many rallies for conservatives across the country, promoting challenges to the Republican establishment, in spite of party leadership. She's gone on conservative talk radio, and she's promoted conservative causes. Leaks from the White House and Former Chief of Staff Steve Schmidt's stories say she's completely unhinged, does whatever she wants, and the President actively avoids her, and they rarely see each other more than once a month. The Vice President however, is actively pushing her conservative agenda within the White House, rumor has it she's working to push out Mitt Romney, John Lehman, Sam Nunn, and Joe Lieberman, who she deems insufficiently conservative. She's also spent some time in Iowa recently, meeting with the state's Republican leaders and giving a rally too the conservative faithful. Steve Schmidt recently said to CNN. "She wants to be President, and she doesn't care about this administration at all." Lately, she's been working with conservative state AGs to roll back gay marriage in states across the Union. Such as in Vermont, she remains very unpopular.


Presidential Job Approval
Approve: 44%
Disapprove: 49%

Vice Presidential Job Approval
Approve: 39%
Disapprove: 56%

[Joe Biden 2024]

I feel like Palin is either going to resign or be forced off the ticket in 2012.

[KaiserDave]

I feel like Palin is either going to resign or be forced off the ticket in 2012.

If the President runs for reelection

[Joey1996]

Have a feeling McCain might pass away early in this timeline

[KaiserDave]

PRESIDENT McCAIN



Dems Pass Tax Plan with 57

After the Democratic Tax Bill cruised through the house, Democrats passed their tax plan through the Senate without 60 vote using budget reconciliation. The entire Democratic party voted yes, save Senators Ben Nelson and Mary Landrieu. Senator Bernie Sanders also voted no, objecting to continuing the Bush Tax Cuts at all, and called the bill in a floor speech, "a sham, what we need is real, full tax reform that works for average Americans, and against Wall Street interests." Nevertheless, Democrats passed the bill through both houses, where it awaits at the President's desk.






Presidential Job Approval
Approve: 45%
Disapprove: 48%

Vice Presidential Job Approval
Approve: 42%
Disapprove: 56%

[KaiserDave]

PRESIDENT McCAIN



BIN LADEN IS DEAD

Osama Bin Laden, the mastermind behind the devastating September 11th attack, is dead. The terrorist leader who lead Al-Qaeda for the past three decades, has been found and killed by US Navy Seals. After a special mission, overseen by the President (a photo is below that has been released by the government, it includes the President, the National Security Advisor John Lehman, and Senator Hillary Clinton) was conducted, that killed the terrorist, the President gave a televised address on most TV channels, telling of the death of Osama bin Laden, and the great victory for the war on terror. At Citi Field in Queens, the large screen showed the announcement while Mets 3rd Baseman David Wright was at the plate, and massive chants of USA began, and heightened after he batted a two run double. The nation was in a joyous mood, after the most wanted man in the world was hunted down. The official story of events is that Osama Bin Laden was moving from mountainous areas of Pakistan's FATA to Abbottabad, a city on the border with Afghanistan. He was traveling in the cover of night in a small vehicle with two armed companions. A helicopter had already entered the valley, and US marines found the truck, and with silenced weapons, eliminated every person in the truck, and took Bin Laden's body with them. The President's approval ratings have jumped significantly, and he's received praise form leaders of both parties.




Presidential Job Approval
Approve: 53%
Disapprove: 45%

Vice Presidential Job Approval
Approve: 42%
Disapprove: 55%

US Unemployment Rate
9.4% ↓

[KaiserDave]

PRESIDENT McCAIN



Supreme Court sides with Citizens United, with caveat

The Supreme Court, had long delayed ruling on the case FEC vs Citizens United, in which the conservative activist group Citizens United challenged the FEC's power to regulate contributions to political campaigns. At last, the Supreme Court heard oral arguments, and sided 5-4 with Citizens United. Justices Alito, Scalia, Roberts, Kennedy, and Thomas voted with Citizens United, and Justices Garland, Ginsburg, Souter, and Breyer sided with the FEC. Justice Garland authorized his first major "spotlight" dissent, arguing on constitutional principle that currency was not speech. Justice Kennedy authored the decision. But there was one caveat with the Court's decision. Justice Kennedy dictated that all organizational contributions must be disclosed by the FEC to the public. But essentially, campaign finance is unregulated, save transparency as to what organizations are sending money where.

McCain promises action in Syria

Riding high on the popularity after finding Osama bin Laden, President McCain kept focus on the Middle East and foreign policy. Some have said this is an attempt to dodge from unemployment which has not dropped from just above 9%. But nevertheless, McCain spent his week first in talks with British Prime Minister David Cameron, and then visited active troops in bases in West Virginia, and then to Eglin Air Force Base, where he spoke to pilots. He then held critical meetings in DC. He gave a rose garden speech earlier today, in which he spoke about the dictatorial actions of President Bashar Al-Assad in Syria, and promised quick retribution for his actions against protestors calling for his removal.
"The tide of democracy, freedom, and liberty is rushing forward. It has no patience for petty crooks and thugs like Bashar Al-Assad. And if Assad tries to use violence to stall the tide, we, with American might, will quicken it."
Secretary of State Joe Lieberman met with Syrian Opposition Leaders, and also finalized the new START treaty, in Moscow. Polls say intervention in Syria is fiercely opposed by Democrats, and supported by a vast majority of Republicans, while independents are leaning to oppose, but are largely undecided.


Presidential Job Approval
Approve: 53%
Disapprove: 45

Vice Presidential Job Approval
Approve: 42%
Disapprove: 54%

US Unemployment Rate
9.5% ^

[KaiserDave]

PRESIDENT McCAIN



McCain Vetoes Dem Tax Plan

After hinting at it the day before, President McCain vetoed the Democratic tax plan. Press Secretary Ed Gillespie had hinted at it the day before, saying:
"The President pushed for deficit-sensible, tax-cutting tax plan. Democrats insisted on a tax and spend bill that would raise the deficit, bankrupt our kids, and leave so many Americans without a tax cut. It is unlikely to become law."
The President then followed up the threat, and vetoed the bill. Senator Max Baucus said he was:
"Very disappointed with the President's decision. This was a bill that cut taxes for middle class Americans everywhere, he has shown he's unwilling to compromise with congress."
Senators Coleman, Collins, Snowe, Murkowski, and Lugar met with Democrats Melançon, Landrieu, Nelson (Ben), Nelson (Bill), Lincoln, Warner, and Goddard to discuss a compromise bill. Senator Clinton met directly with Senator Graham, and held a joint compromise of extending the Bush Tax Cuts for everyone, save those making 325,000 dollars or more.

2012 Election Cycle Begins

Though Election Day 2012 is over a year away, the cycle has already begun. Fundraising, candidate recruitment, and of course speculating about the Presidency has begun. Here are the prospective candidates for both party.

Democrats:

Hillary Clinton
The 2008 runner-up is the obvious Democratic frontrunner. She's got the instant support of many women, as well as mainstream liberal, as well as most moderate Democrats, and some conservative Democrats. She's met with Democratic activists in New Hampshire, Iowa Senator Tom Harkin, and always kept her name in the headlines. Footage of her grilling Rudy Giuliani is all over the internet, and won her praise from Democrats everywhere. She of course, remains very popular in New York and elsewhere. In primary polls, she leads the pack by over 15 points. But less so when this man rans (below).

Barack Obama

The 2008 loser retains a vast group of enthusiastic supporters, eager to see him run again. The hope for the first African-American President remains among the black community and elsewhere. If he ran, he'd reignite the 2008 primary fight, which we may not be good for the party. Others blame him for messing up what should have been a winnable election. He has not done much publicly, but hinted on late night talk that he's thinking about a run. In primary polling, he trails Clinton slightly.

Russ Feingold

Senator Russ Feingold of Wisconsin won a surprising 12 point victory over businessman Ron Johnson in his reelection bid, and aims to lead a progressive insurgency in 2012. After almost 12 years of Republicans, progressives are certainly galvanized and enthused. He has said he is considering a run, and would certainly bring a lot to the table. He's called for single-payer healthcare, bringing all the troops home from Iraq, and many from Afghanistan, and for a vast new stimulus program, as well as further banking reform.

Ted Strickland
The Ohio governor won a comfortable victory over Representative John Kasich in this McCain state. He's reportedly considering a run, and has written a book. He's hoping to use his midwest energy to surge into an Iowa victory, and propel him to the nomination. He's emphasized jobs, and his handling of the Ohio economy lately. It's possible he may run.

Phil Bredesen
The conservative democrat, and former Tennessee governor is aiming to galvanize southern Democrats, and bring Reagan and McCain Democrats back into the party. He's met with southern Democrat leaders like Blanche Lincoln, Mark Pryor, and Bill Nelson. His hinted a run, and he may try to win based on being a red state centrist, to take back the White House.

Donald Trump
The New York businessman, real estate developer, and game show host is considering a run. He's flirted with politics before, having run for President briefly in 2000. He tweeted out how the current administration is "historic disaster." And gave the Vice President the nickname, "stupid Sarah."

Republicans:

John McCain
The President is the obvious frontrunner for the Republican nomination, no Republican president has had a serious challenge since President Ford. However, he's almost 76, and his health is not always stable. He's appeared frail at times, and admitted to not being what he used to be. He's also angered conservatives by ignoring the Vice President, though she's ignored him, and nominating a moderate liberal-leaning judge instead of a conservative. If he runs, he'd likely head to the nomination, if not, the field opens. He has not said anything as of yet.

Sarah Palin
Vice President Palin is the first choice of conservatives if the President opts to not run. She's spent three years acting like she's running, and she's whipped the conservative grassroots into a frenzy. After the President's unsatisfying term for conservatives at least, she may benefit from her undermining of the President. Polling puts her ahead in the Iowa Caucus, if the President does not run. Though in a general election, Poll show her down by 11 against Senator Clinton.

Mitt Romney
The Treasury Secretary, Former Governor of Massachusetts, and 2008 Republican runner-up is speculated to be the establishment pick if the President chooses not to run. Republican leaders seek to avoid the potential catastrophes of Palin on the ticket. He would rally moderate and somewhat conservative Republicans to his side, to look to win the moderate primary in New Hampshire.

Ron Paul
The Texas Congressman has said he is likely to run for President regardless of whether the President runs for reelection. The libertarian congressman has blasted the President for the wars, spending, and government waste. He's called for abolishing the Departments of Energy, Commerce, Education, the EPA, and the IRS. As well as bringing the troops home.



Presidential Job Approval
Approve: 50%
Disapprove: 47

Vice Presidential Job Approval
Approve: 41%
Disapprove: 54%

US Unemployment Rate
9.5% -