FL-GOV 2018: Ron DeSantis vs. Andrew Gillum: Who wins?

[MillennialModerate]

Ugh, Likely R.

Would’ve been Tilt D, oh well.

[CookieDamage]

Ugh, Likely R.

Would’ve been Tilt D, oh well.

"Likely R" is what a lot of non Floridians seem to be saying.

[UWS]

De Santis

[Use Your Illusion]

Literally all DeSantis has to do is stand in Trump's shadow now. It's a double edged sword that's strong enough to wipe Putnam off the map after trailing. I can think of few weapons more powerful in a polarized state like Florida. The Trump phenomenon is reaching borderline mind control levels of effectiveness.

[Zaybay]

Ugh, Likely R.

Would’ve been Tilt D, oh well.

"Likely R" is what a lot of non Floridians seem to be saying.

Yeah, its also funny to see that most FL posters did not like Graham and saw her as an average/below average candidate, while everyone else is screaming at the fact that they didnt choose the boring, uncharismatic, daughter of a popular senator. In fact, Im pretty sure the FL posters, at least the D ones, are really happy about the results, based on posts so far.

[ajc0918]

Ugh, Likely R.

Would’ve been Tilt D, oh well.

"Likely R" is what a lot of non Floridians seem to be saying.

Yeah, its also funny to see that most FL posters did not like Graham and saw her as an average/below average candidate, while everyone else is screaming at the fact that they didnt choose the boring, uncharismatic, daughter of a popular senator. In fact, Im pretty sure the FL posters, at least the D ones, are really happy about the results, based on posts so far.

I didn't even vote for Gillum and I couldn't be more excited for vote for him in November.

[Podgy the Bear]

DeSantis 53%
Gillum 45%

Well, may be - 52-46. But DeSantis will be favored. Because Gillum is a progressive as well as Black. This year Democrats run "minority progressives" (their base) for governor in 3 biggest Southern states - Texas, Florida and Georgia. We will see how many of these 3 races they win.

All three are likely to lose, though Abrams has by far the best chance.  She has the advantage of concentrating her GOTV effort in the metro Atlanta area (which is about 70% of the state population).  The other two have to split their resources in the multiple metropolitan areas of Texas and Florida.

[Use Your Illusion]

Ugh, Likely R.

Would’ve been Tilt D, oh well.

"Likely R" is what a lot of non Floridians seem to be saying.

Yeah, its also funny to see that most FL posters did not like Graham and saw her as an average/below average candidate, while everyone else is screaming at the fact that they didnt choose the boring, uncharismatic, daughter of a popular senator. In fact, Im pretty sure the FL posters, at least the D ones, are really happy about the results, based on posts so far.

I'm neutral, I just want things to be different in Florida and DeSantis isn't likely to do it. I'm sure he'll be a fine Governor if he wins but I'm not excited about more of the same. Especially in the wake of Rick Scott

[wesmoorenerd]

Gillum by 2. Gillum is a massively underrated candidate (dude's charismatic as hell and I don't think the FBI stuff is going to stick, honestly) and DeSantis has zero appeal outside of his base. In a Generic FL-DEM race vs. Generic FL-GOP race in this environment, the Generic FL-DEM has a slight advantage, I'd say. That hasn't changed.

[ajc0918]

Ugh, Likely R.

Would’ve been Tilt D, oh well.

"Likely R" is what a lot of non Floridians seem to be saying.

Yeah, its also funny to see that most FL posters did not like Graham and saw her as an average/below average candidate, while everyone else is screaming at the fact that they didnt choose the boring, uncharismatic, daughter of a popular senator. In fact, Im pretty sure the FL posters, at least the D ones, are really happy about the results, based on posts so far.

I'm neutral, I just want things to be different in Florida and DeSantis isn't likely to do it. I'm sure he'll be a fine Governor if he wins but I'm not excited about more of the same. Especially in the wake of Rick Scott

Then vote for Gillum?

[Nathan Towne]

I think that this is most likely going to be a very competitive and hotly contested race. I give Mr. Gillum a tremendous amount of credit for what he accomplished in winning the primary against a field with several candidates who dramatically outspent him and had the support of very powerful elements within the Democratic party, both at the State and at the national level. His accomplishment is a great feat and he has considerable star power. I think that it is most likely going to be a tough, hard-fought race. In the end, I think that Mr. DeSantis will most likely defeat him, but it is not going to be a pushover. DeSantis is going to need to go out and run a fine campaign.

[MT Treasurer]

I don’t see either candidate winning by 4 or more like many posters in this thread have suggested. This should be another nail-biter and will most likely be decided by <2 points, so I refuse to call it at this point (thank God I don’t have a gun held to my head).

[Comrade Funk]

Gillum by 3. He might even push Nelson over the top.

[Zaybay]

I think that this is most likely going to be a very competitive and hotly contested race. I give Mr. Gillum a tremendous amount of credit for what he accomplished in winning the primary against a field with several candidates who dramatically outspent him and had the support of very powerful elements within the Democratic party, both at the State and at the national level. His accomplishment is a great feat and he has considerable star power. I think that it is most likely going to be a tough, hard-fought race. In the end, I think that Mr. DeSantis will most likely defeat him, but it is not going to be a pushover. DeSantis is going to need to go out and run a fine campaign.

This is a better take than most Ds on this forum have given. Congrats.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

I say Gillum wins, but it will be very contested.

[BL53931]

I'm not psychic but I see a nasty race followed by a virtual tie with recounts taking it weeks past Election Day.

[Saint Milei]

Does Gillum support open borders?

Only people who want open borders are the Koch brothers so they can suppress wages.

Abolishing ICE, a proposal I do not support, has nothing to do with open borders. Customs and Border Protection already protects the border.

you hate immigrants

[96FJV]

I love this Race a Progressive vs a Trumptard. Gillum I think wins by 2%. People want a more left-wing Democrat, plus I think RDS does not have the appeal outside his base that  Gillum will have. Gillum is much more charismatic and already stunned us once.

[fluffypanther19]

I think that this is most likely going to be a very competitive and hotly contested race. I give Mr. Gillum a tremendous amount of credit for what he accomplished in winning the primary against a field with several candidates who dramatically outspent him and had the support of very powerful elements within the Democratic party, both at the State and at the national level. His accomplishment is a great feat and he has considerable star power. I think that it is most likely going to be a tough, hard-fought race. In the end, I think that Mr. DeSantis will most likely defeat him, but it is not going to be a pushover. DeSantis is going to need to go out and run a fine campaign.

this is my current thinking right now

I think that this is most likely going to be a very competitive and hotly contested race. I give Mr. Gillum a tremendous amount of credit for what he accomplished in winning the primary against a field with several candidates who dramatically outspent him and had the support of very powerful elements within the Democratic party, both at the State and at the national level. His accomplishment is a great feat and he has considerable star power. I think that it is most likely going to be a tough, hard-fought race. In the end, I think that Mr. DeSantis will most likely defeat him, but it is not going to be a pushover. DeSantis is going to need to go out and run a fine campaign.

This is a better take than most Ds on this forum have given. Congrats.

[Skye]

I'd say DeSantis if the GOP successfully ties him to the FBI scandal.

It's still a Tossup, though.

[Use Your Illusion]

Ugh, Likely R.

Would’ve been Tilt D, oh well.

"Likely R" is what a lot of non Floridians seem to be saying.

Yeah, its also funny to see that most FL posters did not like Graham and saw her as an average/below average candidate, while everyone else is screaming at the fact that they didnt choose the boring, uncharismatic, daughter of a popular senator. In fact, Im pretty sure the FL posters, at least the D ones, are really happy about the results, based on posts so far.

I'm neutral, I just want things to be different in Florida and DeSantis isn't likely to do it. I'm sure he'll be a fine Governor if he wins but I'm not excited about more of the same. Especially in the wake of Rick Scott

Then vote for Gillum?

It would have been as easy as voting for him in the primary if he is who I wanted. No mistake I am too socially liberal to be an actual independent but at the same time I abhor how extreme everything needs to be.

We gotta legalize ALL the pot!

We gotta go for the gut on gun laws!

Raising taxes is socialist diatribe!

We need to be tough on terrorism!!!!!!! ........ Becuase Al-Queda is in FL right?

Jesus Christ, nowadays on both sides it's speak firmly, carry a big stick and then once you get elected make sure you swing it everywhere and tell everyone what a great job you're doing while making sure you convince the masses they are fighting for humanity itself by voting for them

Gillum is gonna have to fight fire with fire if he wants to win and all its going to do is create more sensationalism.

[Dereich]

DeSantis takes a mostly consistent 4 point lead in the polls within a month and doesn't relinquish it through the campaign. With better organization and less skeletons in his closet, DeSantis easily out-raises and out-campaigns Gillum. Democrats blame racism, voting laws, and money as it becomes clear on election night that they have needlessly thrown away yet another winnable Florida race by nominating the FLGOP dream candidate.

[mencken]

DeSantis, obviously.

[I’m not Stu]

Are Florida voters racially polarized, or is there a fair amount of white swing voters?

[Zaybay]

Are Florida voters racially polarized, or is there a fair amount of white swing voters?

Sort of. The panhandle is full of AA and ancestral Ds, so that sometimes swings for the right candidate(Nelson is the only one so far). The entire state of FL is rather polarized, and there is only really a small group of undecideds. Unlike OH, which is a match of convincing, FL is a match of base turnout, which is why this race will be very interesting.