What chance to you give Andrew Gillum at winning this November?

[Rookie Yinzer]

50%

The race is a toss-up.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

10-19%, but that could definitely change as the campaign goes on.

[Jags]

Around 55% for me.

[wesmoorenerd]

55%. I still think he's a slim favorite given the national environment, given the lack of other data. If we get a poll showing him down that could change quickly.

[Progressive Pessimist]

40%. I'm not counting him out entirely, he can win if everything goes right, but he is not favored by the state he is running in and DeSantis' inevitably scorched earth negative campaigning against him. I'd consider this race lean R.

[MAINEiac4434]

57%...DeSantis is a moron.

[IceSpear]

57%...DeSantis is a moron.

Since when has being a moron stopped someone from winning Florida?

[Donerail]

57%...DeSantis is a moron.

Since when has being a moron stopped someone from winning Florida?

Harris '06, arguably Jeb! '94 — lot of RPOF candidates are evil, but the party didn't get to where it is by nominating people who are flat-out stupid.

[MAINEiac4434]

57%...DeSantis is a moron.

Since when has being a moron stopped someone from winning Florida?

True, but DeSantis is a special kind of stupid.

[Confused Democrat]

Pure toss-up (50%).

[IceSpear]

57%...DeSantis is a moron.

Since when has being a moron stopped someone from winning Florida?

Harris '06, arguably Jeb! '94 — lot of RPOF candidates are evil, but the party didn't get to where it is by nominating people who are flat-out stupid.

Well, morons have lost in Florida, of course. But it's hardly a disqualifying factor. See Trump, Dubya, Bondi, etc. It's not like anyone was going to beat Nelson in 2006 anyway.

[NewYorkExpress]

<1%

Florida whites aren't voting for a black man again any time soon.

The sad thing is Gillum's margin of defeat, coupled with Scott's money advantage, probably is the death knell for Bill Nelson's Senate tenure.

[Zaybay]

<1%

Florida whites aren't voting for a black man again any time soon.

The sad thing is Gillum's margin of defeat, coupled with Scott's money advantage, probably is the death knell for Bill Nelson's Senate tenure.

*Looks at 2008 and 2012*
Yeah, I dont think thats his problem. Gillum can win with the same base he used in the primary, Urbanites, Hispanics, AAs, and Liberal Whites. In fact, as other posters have mentioned, the synergy of Gillum turning out the base and Nelson trying to get the White Conservatives is really good.

And Nelson is getting an injection of around 40$ million soon, so money is not an isssue.

[junior chįmp]

I dont know how to feel about this race tbh. Desantis is a clown-tier candidate but virtually ever Graham voter I know was just like, ''well I guess I'm voting for Gillum now.'' There wasn't that sort of Bernie-Hillary division from the primaries. Reminds me of the way Republicans just decided to vote for Trump in the 2016 GE despite all the clownfoonery.

IDK...too many unknown-unknowns here...tossup I guess

[NewYorkExpress]

<1%

Florida whites aren't voting for a black man again any time soon.

The sad thing is Gillum's margin of defeat, coupled with Scott's money advantage, probably is the death knell for Bill Nelson's Senate tenure.

*Looks at 2008 and 2012*
Yeah, I dont think thats his problem. Gillum can win with the same base he used in the primary, Urbanites, Hispanics, AAs, and Liberal Whites. In fact, as other posters have mentioned, the synergy of Gillum turning out the base and Nelson trying to get the White Conservatives is really good.

And Nelson is getting an injection of around 40$ million soon, so money is not an issue.

Obama was a very different candidate who;

A: Didn't Have serious corruption investigations into his previous office.
B. Had the benefit of the economy in Florida collapsing
C. Picked a strong running mate. Gillium is able to pick his own running mate, I believe, but the only choice that theoretically can win the election, and preserve some credibility with the base is Graham, and that's not a choice he's going to make.
D. Was running against a candidate that didn't appeal to racist hicks. McCain simply didn't dogwhistle enough for most of these people's taste, so they either stayed home, or voted Obama out of spite (or to "prove" the weren't racist after all). And Romney can be explained away by the fact that most Florida evangelicals (who would probably be White) think Mormons are a cult.
E. Was able to outspend McCain, and more our less outspend Romney too. Do you really think DeSantis or especially Scott will be outspent by Gillium/Nelson?

[Xing]

Pretty much exactly 50%, ignoring the handwringing on Atlas.

[ON Progressive]

<1%

Florida whites aren't voting for a black man again any time soon.

The sad thing is Gillum's margin of defeat, coupled with Scott's money advantage, probably is the death knell for Bill Nelson's Senate tenure.

*Looks at 2008 and 2012*
Yeah, I dont think thats his problem. Gillum can win with the same base he used in the primary, Urbanites, Hispanics, AAs, and Liberal Whites. In fact, as other posters have mentioned, the synergy of Gillum turning out the base and Nelson trying to get the White Conservatives is really good.

And Nelson is getting an injection of around 40$ million soon, so money is not an issue.

E. Was able to outspend McCain, and more our less outspend Romney too. Do you really think DeSantis or especially Scott will be outspent by Gillium/Nelson?

Gillum already won a primary even though he was severely outspent by his opposition though! Fundraising is seriously overrated in determining the strength of a candidate.

[IceSpear]

<1%

Florida whites aren't voting for a black man again any time soon.

The sad thing is Gillum's margin of defeat, coupled with Scott's money advantage, probably is the death knell for Bill Nelson's Senate tenure.

*Looks at 2008 and 2012*
Yeah, I dont think thats his problem. Gillum can win with the same base he used in the primary, Urbanites, Hispanics, AAs, and Liberal Whites. In fact, as other posters have mentioned, the synergy of Gillum turning out the base and Nelson trying to get the White Conservatives is really good.

And Nelson is getting an injection of around 40$ million soon, so money is not an issue.

E. Was able to outspend McCain, and more our less outspend Romney too. Do you really think DeSantis or especially Scott will be outspent by Gillium/Nelson?

Gillum already won a primary even though he was severely outspent by his opposition though! Fundraising is seriously overrated in determining the strength of a candidate.

It really varies. If it wasn't for Scott destroying Nelson on the airwaves over the past few months he'd probably be losing by quite a bit right now. Compare the polls from early in the year to the ones after Scott's entrance:

https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/fl/florida_senate_scott_vs_nelson-6246.html

[junior chįmp]

I dont know how to feel about this race tbh. Desantis is a clown-tier candidate but virtually ever Graham voter I know was just like, ''well I guess I'm voting for Gillum now.'' There wasn't that sort of Bernie-Hillary division from the primaries. Reminds me of the way Republicans just decided to vote for Trump in the 2016 GE despite all the clownfoonery.

IDK...too many unknown-unknowns here...tossup I guess

I guess this will be a good test case for how far left a swing state Dem nominee can go in the event that it’s a close race or a narrow Gillum win. Republicans get away with running people just short of alt-righters in swing states all the time, so in a just world, Gillum would win too

This election reminds me of the midterms of 1978 that preceded the Reagan realignment:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It may very well be that what we consider to be losing candidates like Abrams or Gillum may in fact be candidates that reflect where we are going and the impending realignment of our party system. Perhaps Gwen Graham was another Hillary Clinton-like ''we need to nominate a moderate cookie cutter non-descript person,'' to bring out the voters when in fact what we actually need is candidates like Gillum, Abrams, etc... to win these elections.

[Zaybay]

<1%

Florida whites aren't voting for a black man again any time soon.

The sad thing is Gillum's margin of defeat, coupled with Scott's money advantage, probably is the death knell for Bill Nelson's Senate tenure.

*Looks at 2008 and 2012*
Yeah, I dont think thats his problem. Gillum can win with the same base he used in the primary, Urbanites, Hispanics, AAs, and Liberal Whites. In fact, as other posters have mentioned, the synergy of Gillum turning out the base and Nelson trying to get the White Conservatives is really good.

And Nelson is getting an injection of around 40$ million soon, so money is not an issue.

Obama was a very different candidate who;

A: Didn't Have serious corruption investigations into his previous office.
B. Had the benefit of the economy in Florida collapsing
C. Picked a strong running mate. Gillium is able to pick his own running mate, I believe, but the only choice that theoretically can win the election, and preserve some credibility with the base is Graham, and that's not a choice he's going to make.
D. Was running against a candidate that didn't appeal to racist hicks. McCain simply didn't dogwhistle enough for most of these people's taste, so they either stayed home, or voted Obama out of spite (or to "prove" the weren't racist after all). And Romney can be explained away by the fact that most Florida evangelicals (who would probably be White) think Mormons are a cult.
E. Was able to outspend McCain, and more our less outspend Romney too. Do you really think DeSantis or especially Scott will be outspent by Gillium/Nelson?

alright, retort time!

A. The problem is that Gillum is not under investigation. Its a clerk, who happened to be working at the same time as Gillum was mayor. The connection between the two is rather weak, which is why, even though this has been known for a year now, none of the other primary opponents attacked him on it, and why the local and national media is not really discussing it.

B. I dont really think thats a positive for Obama. It was under his term that the FL economy continued to sag. In fact, that probably jeopardized his hold if anything.

C. Biden was an above average to great running mate, I will give you that. But there is no proof that Gillum is going to choose a poor Lt. Gov. And why should he choose Graham? She only has reach in the panhandle, and is a boring and terrible speaker. The better idea would be to get a Latino on the Lt. Gov, considering that is the strategy he is going for, not to woe over some couple of Panhandlers that could easily dump him.

D. The idea that DeSantis' racism will help him is ludicrous at best. It alienates the Latinos in the South that he needs, and it energizes the Ds. Sure, it keeps the Panhandlers on his side, but that was never his strategy to begin with. DeSantis is actually helping Gillum preform his strategy, if anything.

E. Money isnt everything. Scott outspent his opponents like crazy in 2010 and 2014, and he only won by a point, in two R waves. And even this year, his current RCP advantage is only Scott +1.5. And Gillum was also outspent massively in the primary, with Levine dumping more money than Scott, and Graham spending in the 30$ millions. But both, just like Scott, focused on ads. Gillum is building infrastructure, and is using GOTV operations, and those are much cheaper, and much more effective. And, it should be noted, that his ActBlue page crashed due to too many donations for 5 hours after he won, so I think he will get a nice influx of cash.

[Donerail]

B. Had the benefit of the economy in Florida collapsing

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Florida,_2012

C. Picked a strong running mate. Gillium is able to pick his own running mate, I believe, but the only choice that theoretically can win the election, and preserve some credibility with the base is Graham, and that's not a choice he's going to make.

no.

D. Was running against a candidate that didn't appeal to racist hicks. McCain simply didn't dogwhistle enough for most of these people's taste, so they either stayed home, or voted Obama out of spite (or to "prove" the weren't racist after all). And Romney can be explained away by the fact that most Florida evangelicals (who would probably be White) think Mormons are a cult.

this is a truly incomprehensible accounting of voting behavior. "racist hicks" in dixie county turned out and voted for obama to prove to their neighbors that they're racially tolerant. amazing.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

OK I'm WAY more confident of Gillum's chances after watching his victory speech.

This guy was able to get me to feel optimistic and fuzzy about the future of f[inks]ing Florida. Optimistic and warm and fuzzy about Florida.

[Zaybay]

OK I'm WAY more confident of Gillum's chances after watching his victory speech.

This guy was able to get me to feel optimistic and fuzzy about the future of f[inks]ing Florida. Optimistic and warm and fuzzy about Florida.

yep, that is his greatest strength. He was the best speaker of all of them. Levine was okay, and Graham was downright terrible, but Gillum, he just puts a grin on your face and a fire in your belly. No wonder he won the primary.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

A lot of buzz is generating over Gillum possibly choosing Graham as his running mate. Obviously this is a terrific idea but we'll see if it actually happens.

[Zaybay]

A lot of buzz is generating over Gillum possibly choosing Graham as his running mate. Obviously this is a terrific idea but we'll see if it happened.

Would be better for him to choose a Latino from South Florida, but I guess Graham is fine too.