Virginia HoD Redraw Thread - SCOTUS will not stop map drawing

[Oryxslayer]

Is there still time for Democrats to field additional candidates for some of the seats where the Republicans are currently uncontested.

Oh yeah, a majority of the seats in the state are uncontested because it is early, and nobody who cares has announced yet - with a few exceptions. This is a after all a state house...

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

How many Districts were won by Clinton 2016 in this map?
How many by Northam 2017?
How many by Kaine 2018?

[Oryxslayer]

How many Districts were won by Clinton 2016 in this map?
How many by Northam 2017?
How many by Kaine 2018?

Info can be found here:

https://www.vpap.org/general-assembly/redistricting-2018/

I believe the accepted plans are:

Richmond A
Petersburg 2
Peninsula 2
HR A

[Oryxslayer]

Okay this is just funny:

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1087871271562547203

[Nyvin]

Dems just got their map for the Tidewater seats. Two reps in safe dem seats, and potentially more flips including the GOP Speakers. GG

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1087870131815018496

If I'm counting right (big if)

54 seats are lean to safe D

41 seats are lean to safe R

1 seat tilts D

2 seats tilt R

2 seats are tossup

[Bojack Horseman]

All right! Good riddance to the Virginia GOP.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/bluevirginia/status/1087876252973891585

The VAGOP is officially dead.

[Frodo]

https://twitter.com/bluevirginia/status/1087876252973891585

The VAGOP is officially dead.

Curious if that's the map that would have been drawn if One Virginia 2021 gets that independent redistricting commission amendment passed. 

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/bluevirginia/status/1087876252973891585

The VAGOP is officially dead.

Curious if that's the map that would have been drawn if One Virginia 2021 gets that independent redistricting commission amendment passed. 

Well, theres a rumor going around that the courts picked the dem plans to correct for the Pub stuff in other parts of the map. If the map was truly fair then some of these districts would be illegal, but most are fine.

[henster]

Glorious hopefully Kirk Cox goes down too especially after helping kill every marijuana bill this session and the ERA too.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Would it have been legal for the courts to redraw the entire map from scratch after finding VRA violations in just parts of the state? If not, then I want a source as to why. If so, I want to know why they chose not to do this.

[Bojack Horseman]

https://twitter.com/bluevirginia/status/1087876252973891585

The VAGOP is officially dead.

Curious if that's the map that would have been drawn if One Virginia 2021 gets that independent redistricting commission amendment passed. 

I sure hope they’re not actually going to put this on the ballot when we’re mere months away from drawing the Virginia GOP into extinction.

[Oryxslayer]

Would it have been legal for the courts to redraw the entire map from scratch after finding VRA violations in just parts of the state? If not, then I want a source as to why. If so, I want to know why they chose not to do this.

Only certain districts, though admittedly a quite a few were thrown out. Therefore, the court only ordered redraws of those districts. However, changing one district will affect most of its neighbors. But the neighbors beyond that shouldn't need to change, and the count didn't hand down a mandate for said change. In fact the court handed down mandates on certain areas not to touch - note how VA beach is basically unchanged in all remedial plans with the exception of the horseshoe seat. However, just unpacking VRA seats that are too full to begin with does change the math significantly, since a AA voter is almost always a D voter - if s/he turns out to the polls.

[Virginiá]

I sure hope they’re not actually going to put this on the ballot when we’re mere months away from drawing the Virginia GOP into extinction.

The legislature has to pass it in two sessions, so if it doesn't pass this year, they won't have time to get on the ballot and approved before the next round of redistricting for legislative maps.

[Gass3268]

Not looking great for Virginia Republicans:

https://twitter.com/DrawFairLines/status/1088148509256241154

[Sestak]

Okay this is just funny:

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1087871271562547203

Amazing.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Is the whole house and senate up in 2019?

[henster]

Is the whole house and senate up in 2019?

Yes and hopefully when Dems get the trifecta we can get rid of the stupid one term limit and move elections from odd years to Presidential years.

[Brittain33]

I feel old to have lived through Virginia’s transition from ancestral Democrat to Republican dominance to, finally, moderate-to-liberal metropolitan Democrat.

Virginia was the first southern state to make this change. May Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas he close behind. (I can’t think of any other comparable southern state.)

[Frodo]

I feel old to have lived through Virginia’s transition from ancestral Democrat to Republican dominance to, finally, moderate-to-liberal metropolitan Democrat.

Virginia was the first southern state to make this change. May Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas he close behind. (I can’t think of any other comparable southern state.)

I was there and following the news when Jim Gilmore rode his signature promise to cut repeal the car tax all the way to the Governor's Mansion in 1997.  

He was only partially successful.  So in effect, he cut rather than repealed the car tax.  Quite substantially too even if he failed to honor his promise (though it wasn't for lack of trying).   

[Tintrlvr]

I feel old to have lived through Virginia’s transition from ancestral Democrat to Republican dominance to, finally, moderate-to-liberal metropolitan Democrat.

Virginia was the first southern state to make this change. May Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas he close behind. (I can’t think of any other comparable southern state.)

Might happen in South Carolina long-term as well.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

I feel old to have lived through Virginia’s transition from ancestral Democrat to Republican dominance to, finally, moderate-to-liberal metropolitan Democrat.

Virginia was the first southern state to make this change. May Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas he close behind. (I can’t think of any other comparable southern state.)

I remember in 2004 pundits like Tim Brokaw were talking about the fast growing NOVA suburbs, and they might trend Democratic. They agreed that 2004 was too soon, but maybe in 2008. Colorado was the exact same with Denver suburbia. In 2004 Colorado elected a Democratic Senator Ken Salazar and had a big D trend.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Republicans can afford to lose Georgia or North Carolina, maybe even both but they cant any under circumstances afford to lose Texas.

A loss of Texas will mean the party will fall into the same place the Democrats were in the 1980s , locked out of the WH. I think TX 2020 will be like VA 2004 so it would be better for the GOP to lose in 2020 than win.

[Brittain33]

I feel old to have lived through Virginia’s transition from ancestral Democrat to Republican dominance to, finally, moderate-to-liberal metropolitan Democrat.

Virginia was the first southern state to make this change. May Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas he close behind. (I can’t think of any other comparable southern state.)

Might happen in South Carolina long-term as well.

That would surprise me as South Carolina lacks the very large city / tech hubs you need to trend D with a Trumpish GOP. It's still too rural, too many retirees, small-city conservative, Evangelical.

[Brittain33]

I feel old to have lived through Virginia’s transition from ancestral Democrat to Republican dominance to, finally, moderate-to-liberal metropolitan Democrat.

Virginia was the first southern state to make this change. May Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas he close behind. (I can’t think of any other comparable southern state.)

I was there and following the news when Jim Gilmore rode his signature promise to cut repeal the car tax all the way to the Governor's Mansion in 1997.  

He was only partially successful.  So in effect, he cut rather than repealed the car tax.  Quite substantially too even if he failed to honor his promise (though it wasn't for lack of trying).   

A notable moment for me was the 2001 election where everyone was excited that Mark Warner had won the governorship after a long drought for Dems, but he only won narrowly and meanwhile the Democrats got slaughtered in the HoDs as the Republican transition took root with new maps.