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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  PA-SEN: Franklin and Marshall: Casey +13
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Author Topic: PA-SEN: Franklin and Marshall: Casey +13  (Read 751 times)
ltomlinson31
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« on: August 29, 2018, 11:08:51 pm »

Bob Casey - 47%
Lou Barletta - 34%

https://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/542437385203702944-f-m-poll-release-august-2018.pdf
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Bagel23
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« Reply #1 on: August 29, 2018, 11:12:42 pm »

First, and heck yeah!!
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Lou Barletta's Teeth
PittsburghSteel
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« Reply #2 on: August 29, 2018, 11:20:40 pm »
« Edited: August 29, 2018, 11:32:01 pm by PittsburghSteel »

The PA GOP is going to have an extraordinarily rough midterm, and deservedly so after the whole redistricting fiasco with the state legislature.

Anyways, Crosstabs! -

Casey winning Moderates by 55 points

Casey winning every age group

Casey winning college grads by 37 points

Barletta polling only 9% with nonwhites

Casey winning the Northwest by 44 points (Sirens for Mike Kelly)

Barletta with a -1 favorable rating, Casey at +13
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #3 on: August 30, 2018, 12:16:47 am »

Those who thought that WI/MI/PA were permanent red states after 2016 are going to have a rough night on November 6th.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #4 on: August 30, 2018, 01:57:10 am »

But 47% means that 53% DON'T want Casey there. And TRUMP won the state. Lean R.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #5 on: August 30, 2018, 02:16:36 am »

Looking at the crosstabs Casey should be leading by a lot more than 13... for instance:

Img


If he is leading by 15 with telephone surveys and 31 with web surveys, how can he only by up by 13 overall? Similarly:

Img


If he is leading among whites by 15 and nonwhites by 49, how is he only up by 13?
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Ebsy
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« Reply #6 on: August 30, 2018, 02:25:41 am »
« Edited: August 30, 2018, 02:29:47 am by Ebsy »

Later in the memo it says Casey leads 48-29, by 19 points.

Img


Mystery solved. Amateur hour at F&M.
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IA less likely to flip than OH/TX/FL/GA/NC/AZ
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« Reply #7 on: August 30, 2018, 09:42:46 am »

If this is accurate, itís hard to see Trump winning PA again in 2020, even in a close election.
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Lou Barletta's Teeth
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« Reply #8 on: August 30, 2018, 09:59:38 am »

So I guess we should change the poll to Casey +19? Idk why they have so many different outcomes. F&M are a pretty good pollster.
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