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Author Topic: PA-GOV: Franklin and Marshall: Wolf +17  (Read 1081 times)
ltomlinson31
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« on: August 29, 2018, 11:10:13 pm »

Tom Wolf: 52%
Scott Wagner: 35%

https://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/542437385203702944-f-m-poll-release-august-2018.pdf
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« Reply #1 on: August 29, 2018, 11:10:40 pm »

Cheesy
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Lou Barletta's Teeth
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« Reply #2 on: August 29, 2018, 11:12:27 pm »

Generic Ballot in the state is D+9. In Oct. 2010 it was R+4. Final result was R+3 with 5 seats picked up by the GOP. The Blue Wave will smash into PA.

Anyways, Crosstabs! -

Wolf winning moderates by 60 points

Wolf winning college graduates by 36 points

Wolf winning whites by 15 points

Wolf winning in every region except the southwest where he is trailing by only 1 point

Wolf winning nearly 70% in Allegheny (Likely thanks to Fetterman)

Wagner is only polling 7% with nonwhites
« Last Edit: August 29, 2018, 11:25:23 pm by PittsburghSteel »Logged

Prolocutor Bagel23
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« Reply #3 on: August 29, 2018, 11:13:29 pm »

Yeet!
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #4 on: August 29, 2018, 11:58:13 pm »

Great poll!

Between their gerrymander getting thrown out, losing several of their incumbents, and Lamb winning the special election, 2018 has not been kind to the PAGOP. It's looking very likely they can add a November thumping to the list as well.
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« Reply #5 on: August 30, 2018, 12:01:45 am »

New Poll: Pennsylvania Governor by Franklin and Marshall College on 2018-08-26

Summary: D: 52%, R: 35%, U: 13%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #6 on: August 30, 2018, 01:58:29 am »

#Wolfover50
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« Reply #7 on: August 30, 2018, 02:40:12 am »

Wolf actually leads by 51-32 if you look down to the actual results in the polling memo.
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« Reply #8 on: August 30, 2018, 02:43:10 am »

Are any legislative bodies flipping, though? I can see the gains only showing in Dem-packed Philly and Pittsburgh.
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« Reply #9 on: August 30, 2018, 06:40:34 am »

#WolfUnder53
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« Reply #10 on: August 30, 2018, 07:41:26 am »

Are any legislative bodies flipping, though? I can see the gains only showing in Dem-packed Philly and Pittsburgh.
PA-Senate is basically out of reach in 2018. The only way to flip control there is gaining 8 seats in November and then Reschenthaler's seat if he's elected to Congress. Tall order.
PA-House is different. Dems need to gain 20 seats. Currently there are 18 Republicans in suburban district Clinton carried. A wave there plus gaining a few more WWC districts should be enough.
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« Reply #11 on: August 30, 2018, 08:29:22 am »

Are any legislative bodies flipping, though? I can see the gains only showing in Dem-packed Philly and Pittsburgh.
PA-Senate is basically out of reach in 2018. The only way to flip control there is gaining 8 seats in November and then Reschenthaler's seat if he's elected to Congress. Tall order.
PA-House is different. Dems need to gain 20 seats. Currently there are 18 Republicans in suburban district Clinton carried. A wave there plus gaining a few more WWC districts should be enough.
Based on the current numbers we are getting in the PA suburbs(D+20), we should see a VA like sweep, the house is probably tilt-D at this point IMO. The senate, however is difficult. While 7 seats are tossups and likely to go to us, that 8th seat will be hard to find, but its definitely possible. Lean R. But really we only need one chamber to get Wolf some power and to get a D-favourable map in the 2020s.
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« Reply #12 on: August 30, 2018, 09:03:29 am »

Are any legislative bodies flipping, though? I can see the gains only showing in Dem-packed Philly and Pittsburgh.
PA-Senate is basically out of reach in 2018. The only way to flip control there is gaining 8 seats in November and then Reschenthaler's seat if he's elected to Congress. Tall order.
PA-House is different. Dems need to gain 20 seats. Currently there are 18 Republicans in suburban district Clinton carried. A wave there plus gaining a few more WWC districts should be enough.
Based on the current numbers we are getting in the PA suburbs(D+20), we should see a VA like sweep, the house is probably tilt-D at this point IMO. The senate, however is difficult. While 7 seats are tossups and likely to go to us, that 8th seat will be hard to find, but its definitely possible. Lean R. But really we only need one chamber to get Wolf some power and to get a D-favourable map in the 2020s.
Dems have a good chance of winning the Senate in 2020 right in time for redistricting
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« Reply #13 on: August 30, 2018, 09:44:18 am »

With this kind of GCB and Wolf coattails, the race in PA-01 may have just been tilted back in Wallace's favor. Scott and DiNicola have a real opening here.
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« Reply #14 on: August 30, 2018, 09:47:05 am »

With this kind of GCB and Wolf coattails, the race in PA-01 may have just been tilted back in Wallace's favor. Scott and DiNicola have a real opening here.
I agree, though I would say that he was favoured the whole time, since the only poll so far had him down by 2, 4 months ago. But with this consistent double digit GCB in PA, its likely that we win the entire Eastern side, PA-17, and gain a good shot at PA-10 and PA-16.
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« Reply #15 on: August 30, 2018, 10:09:47 am »

With this kind of GCB and Wolf coattails, the race in PA-01 may have just been tilted back in Wallace's favor. Scott and DiNicola have a real opening here.

Yeah, Wolf is dominating in Eastern PA (as well as the West) but his eastern coattails could actually save Scott Wallace.
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« Reply #16 on: August 30, 2018, 12:57:37 pm »

With this kind of GCB and Wolf coattails, the race in PA-01 may have just been tilted back in Wallace's favor. Scott and DiNicola have a real opening here.

Yeah, Wolf is dominating in Eastern PA (as well as the West) but his eastern coattails could actually save Scott Wallace.

Speaking of Wallace, I just saw that he came out with a new ad just yesterday. Gotta say, it's actually pretty good. Perhaps I've been underestimating him. He's still not the best candidate, but he may well be better than I gave him credit for.
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« Reply #17 on: August 30, 2018, 04:15:23 pm »

Wagner's Communications Director's response-

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« Reply #18 on: August 30, 2018, 07:35:42 pm »

Wagner's Communications Director's response-



"Any poll that's not favorable to my party is fake"
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« Reply #19 on: August 31, 2018, 06:30:55 pm »

Wagner's Communications Director's response-



"Any poll that's not favorable to my party is fake"

That's the GOP's way of looking at everything.
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« Reply #20 on: August 31, 2018, 06:49:21 pm »

Wagner's Communications Director's response-



"Any poll that's not favorable to my party is fake"

That's the GOP's way of looking at everything.
Muh polls predicted Hillary would win a landslide
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olowakandi
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« Reply #21 on: September 01, 2018, 07:41:09 am »

Wagner's Communications Director's response-



"Any poll that's not favorable to my party is fake"

That's the GOP's way of looking at everything.
Muh polls predicted Hillary would win a landslide

A wave is Dems winning big in blue states like Pa, that's what it is. And a big Wolf win isn't out of question due to 3-4 seat pickup by Dems in the House😁 Pa 5,6, and 17
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« Reply #22 on: September 01, 2018, 01:01:33 pm »

Barletta be like 48% of PA won't vote for Wolf, well even in that case he still wins lol.
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Joshua
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« Reply #23 on: September 04, 2018, 10:22:21 pm »

GOP campaign staff sweating like dogs.

Must be Titanium D.
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