FL: PPP: GILLUM +5

[Progressive Pessimist]

Please let this be true! If Gillum wins it will go a long way towards Florida redeeming itself in my eyes. I will gladly eat some Floridian crow if this happens.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's not eating crow, its Trump and his lack of making things better like he said he was gonna do, make things right again; instead, brought back to Wallstreet pre Obama days. Andrew Gillum would be a stamp against the Trump administration.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Stacey Abrams and Andrew Gillum are going to be elected on November 6. Yall underestimate the brute effort being put in by immigrant interest groups, pro-choice groups like NARAL, Moms Demand Action, and black grassroots mobilization. Getting these two people elected is do-or-die for many people on the ground here. Can't wait to wake up to the news of two black governors being elected in the Deep South on the same night!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Please let this be true! If Gillum wins it will go a long way towards Florida redeeming itself in my eyes. I will gladly eat some Floridian crow if this happens.

Aren't Floridian crows an endangered species?

[NOVA Green]

So.... do we actually have a link to cross-tabs?

Is this an RV/LV Poll?, etc....

I will wait for a few more polls after the Labor Day Weekend, before starting to be able to assess the state of the GE race here.

Still, it does appear that Gillum numbers are significantly exceeding the CW punditry on Atlas and elsewhere, and this race at minimum is starting to look like a "toss-up" at this fixed point in time and space.

It appears that sometimes the heart is where it's at, rather than the head when it comes to the question of tactical voting (I like candidate XYZ more, but candidate ABC is more electable, etc....)

The Democratic Party experienced that in 2016 in the Presidential Primaries, but one must certainly ask the question "How did that work out come November 2016?"

I suspect that many Floridian Democrats asked themselves that very same question while selecting their candidate for Governor of the Great State of Florida, and went with the heart over tactical, and now the giant paycheck might be coming due this November.

[Use Your Illusion]

Stacey Abrams and Andrew Gillum are going to be elected on November 6. Yall underestimate the brute effort being put in by immigrant interest groups, pro-choice groups like NARAL, Moms Demand Action, and black grassroots mobilization. Getting these two people elected is do-or-die for many people on the ground here. Can't wait to wake up to the news of two black governors being elected in the Deep South on the same night!

There's an understandable sense of pride that comes with getting blacks elected in the south but as a lifelong southerner who was thankfully never exposed to true racism it's a different thing. Wanna know what's gonna turn my world upside-down?

Stacey Abrams (D) Governor of Georgia
Bill Nelson (D) Senator of Florida
Andrew Gillum (D) Governor of Florida
Robert O'Rourke (D) Senator of Texas
Doug Jones (D) Senator of Alabama -Even though he is not running right now
Joe Manchin (D) Senator of West Virginia

If you told me in 2016 that in August 2018 this actually had a very small but measurable prayer of happening in 2018 I'd have told you that you were crazy because there would be no way that the south ever saw that much Democratic representation in a region dominated by Republicans. In my eyes 2 of them just happen to be black. That's not to say all of this going to happen. The chances are probably less than 10% we see this lineup. If it does, then sh**t..... maybe the word isn't "blue wave" but rather "the tides of change"  

Domination by one political party for too long of a state or region is perhaps the biggest enemy that state or region can have. I pray that the likes of Jones, Abrams and Gillum can be the kind of change the tri-state region of Alabama, Georgia and Florida need.

[Scottholes 2.0]

If Atlas says a loss for Gillum is inevitable, then you ought to believe them.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

If Gillum is up 5, then a sensible moderate like Nelson, who votes for sensible moderate things like Paris Hilton never having to pay a dime in inheritance taxes, must be up solid double digits.

[Cold War Liberal]

Stacey Abrams and Andrew Gillum are going to be elected on November 6. Yall underestimate the brute effort being put in by immigrant interest groups, pro-choice groups like NARAL, Moms Demand Action, and black grassroots mobilization. Getting these two people elected is do-or-die for many people on the ground here. Can't wait to wake up to the news of two black governors being elected in the Deep South on the same night!

God I hope all this hard work pays off. In the meantime, Stacey Abrams and Andrew Gillum can have what little money I stash away to donate to political campaigns.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Stacey Abrams and Andrew Gillum are going to be elected on November 6. Yall underestimate the brute effort being put in by immigrant interest groups, pro-choice groups like NARAL, Moms Demand Action, and black grassroots mobilization. Getting these two people elected is do-or-die for many people on the ground here. Can't wait to wake up to the news of two black governors being elected in the Deep South on the same night!

God I hope all this hard work pays off. In the meantime, Stacey Abrams and Andrew Gillum can have what little money I stash away to donate to political campaigns.

I know for a fact the GOP isn’t doing what the Democrats are doing and reaching out to the voters we are reaching out to. I ignore all the “well so and so happened in 2010” and “x, y, and z has never happened before”. Ok. And the campaigns these candidates are running have never been ran before. Everything always happens until it doesn’t. A lot of backpedaling and pretending to have seen it all along will be occurring in 67 days.

[Sir Mohamed]

But muuh, titanium R.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Yay! I preferred Graham, but against DeSantis, I wholeheartedly endorse Gillum. Also nice seeing Nelson up in some poll, hope he starts working hard.

[OneJ]

Great poll!

I wish we can get one from Georgia. We haven’t gotten one of those in a while.

[Use Your Illusion]

Plot twist: Gillum is titanium D and we never even knew it

[CookieDamage]

Wouldn't be surprised if this same poll only showed Graham up by 1 or 2, if up at all.

[Zaybay]

Wouldn't be surprised if this same poll only showed Graham up by 1 or 2, if up at all.

Based on the crosstabs, I would have to agree with you. Nelson and Gillum are getting the same percentage of the white vote, while Gillum overpreforms with AAs and Hispanic voters. These voters were not Graham's base, it would have been the white voters. But it seems that they wont even budge for Nelson.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

All better praise future Governor-elect Gillum for dragging Nelson across the finish line on election day.

Someone Should Make a Meme out of this post

Brilliant, A++

[Devils30]

Gillum's chances are significantly higher than Abrams. Florida just has more persuadable white voters compared to Georgia.

[Podgy the Bear]

Gillum's chances are significantly higher than Abrams. Florida just has more persuadable white voters compared to Georgia.

You may be right but I have my doubts.  Georgia has elected blacks to significant statewide offices (Thurbert Baker for AG as one example).  Furthermore, I believe that the white migration into Georgia (somewhat diverse and younger) is somewhat more leftish than Florida's influx (mostly older retirees).   With over 30% of Georgia's population as black (and overwhelmingly Democratic), Abrams appears to be a in better shape.  But both candidates will have to run extremely strong and inclusive campaigns to have a chance.

[IceSpear]

IceSpear and RubioRepublican told me Gillum can't win though

Atlas just got so much egg on its face.

You must be pretty bad at math if you think 30% = 0%.

Anyway, the level of football spiking in this thread over a single August poll is insane. From reading this thread you'd think Gillum just won the actual election by double digits. I'll admit he's doing better than I suspected he would in this poll, but again, it's a single poll. In August. You all need to chill out, the hackery here is reaching insane and unprecedented levels.

[IceSpear]

It's late August 2018.

Check back with me in mid-September.

Hillary was leading Trump in August 2016. Trump was leading in September.

Still tossup.

You could basically say this about any poll ever

Yes...you could. All polls this early should be viewed with the knowledge that things can, do, and likely will change. There's plenty of factors to evaluate a race on aside from what the polls are saying two months in advance. Most of this forum was circlejerking about Hillary winning in a double digit 400+ EV landslide because of early polls, despite the fact that the fundamentals of our extremely polarized country pointed to at least a somewhat competitive race. People never seem to learn this lesson though, and continue to be absolutely stunned every election that most of the August polls (and even worse, 6 months/1 year/2 years in advance polls) weren't accurate in the end.

[Politician]

IceSpear and RubioRepublican told me Gillum can't win though

Atlas just got so much egg on its face.

You must be pretty bad at math if you think 30% = 0%.

Anyway, the level of football spiking in this thread over a single August poll is insane. From reading this thread you'd think Gillum just won the actual election by double digits. I'll admit he's doing better than I suspected he would in this poll, but again, it's a single poll. In August. You all need to chill out, the hackery here is reaching insane and unprecedented levels.

Dunleavy +10 is a single poll in August, and you treat it as gospel.

[Zaybay]

IceSpear and RubioRepublican told me Gillum can't win though

Atlas just got so much egg on its face.

You must be pretty bad at math if you think 30% = 0%.

Anyway, the level of football spiking in this thread over a single August poll is insane. From reading this thread you'd think Gillum just won the actual election by double digits. I'll admit he's doing better than I suspected he would in this poll, but again, it's a single poll. In August. You all need to chill out, the hackery here is reaching insane and unprecedented levels.

The problem with this line of thinking is that it should be DeSantis overpreforming at this point, not Gillum. In wave years, the party in opposition, the Dems, should see a shift from undecideds after labour day. It happened in 2010, 2006, 2008 and 2014. What most people are freaking out about, and rightfully so, is that Gillum has a modest lead in an independent poll from a B pollster before Labour day. Thats pretty big.

[IceSpear]

IceSpear and RubioRepublican told me Gillum can't win though

Atlas just got so much egg on its face.

You must be pretty bad at math if you think 30% = 0%.

Anyway, the level of football spiking in this thread over a single August poll is insane. From reading this thread you'd think Gillum just won the actual election by double digits. I'll admit he's doing better than I suspected he would in this poll, but again, it's a single poll. In August. You all need to chill out, the hackery here is reaching insane and unprecedented levels.

Dunleavy +10 is a single poll in August, and you treat it as gospel.

Not really. Dunleavy has had decent sized leads in every single one of the last four polls. In terms of fundamentals, Alaska is a very Republican state. And it's simply common sense that of course the de facto Democratic candidate from 2014 and the current Democratic candidate are going to split the left leaning vote in what is already a Republican state to begin with, which further boosts Dunleavy's chances.

[IceSpear]

IceSpear and RubioRepublican told me Gillum can't win though

Atlas just got so much egg on its face.

You must be pretty bad at math if you think 30% = 0%.

Anyway, the level of football spiking in this thread over a single August poll is insane. From reading this thread you'd think Gillum just won the actual election by double digits. I'll admit he's doing better than I suspected he would in this poll, but again, it's a single poll. In August. You all need to chill out, the hackery here is reaching insane and unprecedented levels.

The problem with this line of thinking is that it should be DeSantis overpreforming at this point, not Gillum. In wave years, the party in opposition, the Dems, should see a shift from undecideds after labour day. It happened in 2010, 2006, 2008 and 2014. What most people are freaking out about, and rightfully so, is that Gillum has a modest lead in an independent poll from a B pollster before Labour day. Thats pretty big.

Well, two things. For one, this is only a single data point. We'll need to see what other pollsters find (assuming they're not junk polls, which admittedly is a big ask these days.) Secondly, polls taken immediately after a primary frequently give wonky results. Off the top of my head, Creigh Deeds was actually leading in a poll in 2009 taken immediately after the primary which caused Dem hacks to start popping the champagne, and we all know how that turned out.