FL: PPP: GILLUM +5

[Zaybay]

IceSpear and RubioRepublican told me Gillum can't win though

Atlas just got so much egg on its face.

You must be pretty bad at math if you think 30% = 0%.

Anyway, the level of football spiking in this thread over a single August poll is insane. From reading this thread you'd think Gillum just won the actual election by double digits. I'll admit he's doing better than I suspected he would in this poll, but again, it's a single poll. In August. You all need to chill out, the hackery here is reaching insane and unprecedented levels.

The problem with this line of thinking is that it should be DeSantis overpreforming at this point, not Gillum. In wave years, the party in opposition, the Dems, should see a shift from undecideds after labour day. It happened in 2010, 2006, 2008 and 2014. What most people are freaking out about, and rightfully so, is that Gillum has a modest lead in an independent poll from a B pollster before Labour day. Thats pretty big.

Well, two things. For one, this is only a single data point. We'll need to see what other pollsters find (assuming they're not junk polls, which admittedly is a big ask these days.) Secondly, polls taken immediately after a primary frequently give wonky results. Off the top of my head, Creigh Deeds was actually leading in a poll in 2009 taken immediately after the primary which caused Dem hacks to start popping the champagne, and we all know how that turned out.

But, again, you are making the mischaractization of who should be leading. In 2009, the opposition party was the Republican Party, so it makes sense that Deeds would start to fall and eventually lose. In FL, the party that should be leading right now should be the Republicans, to some extent. Gillum is already polling almost outside the margin of error. And while it is one data point, it is a rather reliable data point, especially since most FL pollsters tend to be.....not the greatest.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Please let this be true! If Gillum wins it will go a long way towards Florida redeeming itself in my eyes. I will gladly eat some Floridian crow if this happens.

Aren't Floridian crows an endangered species?

Probably. But DeSantis winning would certainly be worse for the species than me eating one of them. I don't know, I just expect Republicans to end protections for endangered species or making it legal to hunt them or something.

[Shadows]

Isn't he a socialist or too liberal for Swing state Florida? He is unelectable !

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Isn't he a socialist or too liberal for Swing state Florida? He is unelectable !

He's a pragmatic Dem like Kamala and Obama. I think. Graham has some questions about her electability, that's why Gillum shot ahead of her😁

[Shadows]

Isn't he a socialist or too liberal for Swing state Florida? He is unelectable !

He's a pragmatic Dem like Kamala and Obama. I think. Graham has some questions about her electability, that's why Gillum shot ahead of her😁

How is abolishing ICE pragmatic? It is not a widely supported position & not even 10% in Congress would support. And not even 20% of Senators support Medicare-for-all which Gillum supports & Obama doesn't which will massively expand government, kind of double it !

Gillum was the only Democrat in the primary to support a Single Payer healthcare system. He is a far left radical it comparison to other pragmatic Dems !

[Adam Griffin]

Yeah, I mean...assuming this poll is accurate, then it's likely that virtually any Democratic candidate for Governor here would have been up by as much or more had they secured the nomination. For all the talk of voter enthusiasm, it seems too many here have too much of their own and not enough of an understanding of how it works.

In this particular case, it's not as if hundreds of thousands of black and low propensity progressive voters went from knowing nothing about the race to "oh em gee I'm definitely voting now!" in 4 days. FL is a swing state but it doesn't gyrate - and certainly not this much - on a whim. There probably aren't even enough people in the entire state who heard any meaningful amount more about the race in the 4 days between the primary and this poll to take the final margin from a tie to +5.

Anyway, the underlying mistake is that Atlas posters once again assume the electorate follows politics with the focus of die-hard fans (i.e. themselves), but makes their decisions like absent-minded asylum patients.

[Zaybay]

Yeah, I mean...assuming this poll is accurate, then it's likely that virtually any Democratic candidate for Governor here would have been up by as much or more had they secured the nomination. For all the talk of voter enthusiasm, it seems too many here have too much of their own and not enough of an understanding of how it works.

In this particular case, it's not as if hundreds of thousands of black and low propensity progressive voters went from knowing nothing about the race to "oh em gee I'm definitely voting now!" in 4 days. FL is a swing state but it doesn't gyrate - and certainly not this much - on a whim. There probably aren't even enough people in the entire state who heard any meaningful amount more about the race in the 4 days between the primary and this poll to take the final margin from a tie to +5.

Anyway, the underlying mistake is that Atlas posters once again assume the electorate follows politics with the focus of die-hard fans (i.e. themselves), but makes their decisions like absent-minded asylum patients.

The problem with this arguement, and the one that Gwen or Levine would do the same/ overpreform, is the crosstabs. In this race we actually have someone to compare Gillum to, Nelson.

Gillum is getting 37% of the white vote in this poll. Now, this should be the low point for FL Ds, as Levine and Gwen should be overpreforming. But Nelson, who is close to Gwen and Levine in strategy/politics, is only getting 37% of the white vote. This shows that, even Gwen, the white vote would be similar.

Now, Gillum has focused on Hispanics and AAs for his election. He won both groups in the primary. And, looking at his numbers, it shows. He is massively overpreforming with these groups. Gwen and Levine, who aimed to court white voters in the panhandle, would not be receiving this percentage. Nelson shows this, being down compared to Gillum.

So yeah, most of the other candidates might be only tied with DeSantis, or only a little ahead. Gillum was probably the best candidate we could have chosen.

[Adam Griffin]

Yeah, I mean...assuming this poll is accurate, then it's likely that virtually any Democratic candidate for Governor here would have been up by as much or more had they secured the nomination. For all the talk of voter enthusiasm, it seems too many here have too much of their own and not enough of an understanding of how it works.

In this particular case, it's not as if hundreds of thousands of black and low propensity progressive voters went from knowing nothing about the race to "oh em gee I'm definitely voting now!" in 4 days. FL is a swing state but it doesn't gyrate - and certainly not this much - on a whim. There probably aren't even enough people in the entire state who heard any meaningful amount more about the race in the 4 days between the primary and this poll to take the final margin from a tie to +5.

Anyway, the underlying mistake is that Atlas posters once again assume the electorate follows politics with the focus of die-hard fans (i.e. themselves), but makes their decisions like absent-minded asylum patients.

The problem with this arguement, and the one that Gwen or Levine would do the same/ overpreform, is the crosstabs. In this race we actually have someone to compare Gillum to, Nelson.

Gillum is getting 37% of the white vote in this poll. Now, this should be the low point for FL Ds, as Levine and Gwen should be overpreforming. But Nelson, who is close to Gwen and Levine in strategy/politics, is only getting 37% of the white vote. This shows that, even Gwen, the white vote would be similar.

Now, Gillum has focused on Hispanics and AAs for his election. He won both groups in the primary. And, looking at his numbers, it shows. He is massively overpreforming with these groups. Gwen and Levine, who aimed to court white voters in the panhandle, would not be receiving this percentage. Nelson shows this, being down compared to Gillum.

So yeah, most of the other candidates might be only tied with DeSantis, or only a little ahead. Gillum was probably the best candidate we could have chosen.

It's one poll; you really shouldn't make broad proclamations about how the candidates are going to perform with sub-samples based on that. Nevertheless, if we're going to do that, it's important to note that even white voters in the poll are going to have a MoE of +/- 5 points or so; among minority groups, even larger. Even within the same poll, fluctuations in candidates' numbers that are statistically significant can occur.

Gillum is not Abrams. Gillum has barely been on the radar of most Florida primary voters until a few weeks ago; among a GE electorate, practically nonexistent. He has had neither the resources nor attention necessary to produce any statistically-significant difference with minority voters up until this point. it's likely just noise, with perhaps a tiny uptick due to the favorable news cycle in the few days before the poll.

Just as an example, Gillum has roughly the level of Latino support that Nelson pulled in 2012 - the fact that this poll shows Nelson losing 5 points of Latino support compared to 2012 (despite FL's Latino electorate becoming more Democratic) tells you all you need to know about the level of preciseness that cross-tabs from a single poll provide. In practically every state, analyzing Latino crosstabs in particular is a pretty futile exercise.

And as far the white vote equivalents...yeah, in these two particular match-ups, they probably will end up being comparable. Nelson is a polarizing federal figure who has had plenty of time for his sheen to wear off among Panhandle voters and the like. Graham - who won a district so Republican that it wasn't even on most people's radars, and in a GOP wave year no less - would have undoubtedly overperformed Nelson with white voters in her pursuit of running for a statewide office rather than a federal one (especially considering how well she did among those Panhandle whites when running and winning a prior federal office).

In the end, Gillum will win more black voters than Nelson; Graham would've won more white voters than Nelson. Whether either would produce a significant net advantage is unclear, but I'm betting it wouldn't. Graham could've done just 2 points better than Nelson among whites and it'd produce the same benefit as Gillum doing 5 points better among non-whites (and you can't max out the black vote much more and Cubans still put a hard ceiling on Latino support).

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

It's one poll; you really shouldn't make broad proclamations about how the candidates are going to perform with sub-samples based on that. Nevertheless, if we're going to do that, it's important to note that even white voters in the poll are going to have a MoE of +/- 5 points or so; among minority groups, even larger. Even within the same poll, fluctuations in candidates' numbers that are statistically significant can occur.

Gillum is not Abrams. Gillum has barely been on the radar of most Florida primary voters until a few weeks ago; among a GE electorate, practically nonexistent. He has had neither the resources nor attention necessary to produce any statistically-significant difference with minority voters up until this point. it's likely just noise, with perhaps a tiny uptick due to the favorable news cycle in the few days before the poll.

Just as an example, Gillum has roughly the level of Latino support that Nelson pulled in 2012 - the fact that this poll shows Nelson losing 5 points of Latino support compared to 2012 (despite FL's Latino electorate becoming more Democratic) tells you all you need to know about the level of preciseness that cross-tabs from a single poll provide. In practically every state, analyzing Latino crosstabs in particular is a pretty futile exercise.

And as far the white vote equivalents...yeah, in these two particular match-ups, they probably will end up being comparable. Nelson is a polarizing federal figure who has had plenty of time for his sheen to wear off among Panhandle voters and the like. Graham - who won a district so Republican that it wasn't even on most people's radars, and in a GOP wave year no less - would have undoubtedly overperformed Nelson with white voters in her pursuit of running for a statewide office rather than a federal one (especially considering how well she did among those Panhandle whites when running and winning a prior federal office).

In the end, Gillum will win more black voters than Nelson; Graham would've won more white voters than Nelson. Whether either would produce a significant net advantage is unclear, but I'm betting it wouldn't. Graham could've done just 2 points better than Nelson among whites and it'd produce the same benefit as Gillum doing 5 points better among non-whites (and you can't max out the black vote much more and Cubans still put a hard ceiling on Latino support).

Good post.