FL: PPP: GILLUM +5

[KingSweden]

I was initially very down on Gillum, but I did move the race to tossup before the poll came out so I get to skip the crow

This is, thankfully, a public poll that isn't a Gravis, but while the numbers look good, I'll need more info before I move the race OUT of tossup. But this should prove to everyone that Gillum has a non-negligible, legitimate, honest to Dave shot.

This is a fair take.

Well, the race is still a Tossup, but the fact that he is overperforming Nelson by 4 points should be worrisome for the GOP.

And so is this.

The differences in the ethnicity numbers is staggering. It's almost a bonafide race war via democratic election

The long term trend here is concerning. Ideally, in a pluralist democracy like ours, parties would not Balkanize along ethnic lines. Down that road lies darkness. (And dont @ me about “muh Dem idpol”, the GOP started whipping that horse in 1968)

[JA]

Its PPP and Gillum's favorability will crater once he starts his whole socialism sh**t

His "socialism sh**t" (note: he isn't and never claimed to be a Socialist) is why his approval rating is so high. He's still not universally known in the state, but nearly 3/4 know about him already and only 27% dislike him. It'll almost certainly be a tight race, but to suggest his "favorability will crater" is beyond stupid af.

Hillary had 70% approval when she started rnning for president, shes less liked than trump now. Once the race gets into full gear, he's gonna crater

Those were her approval ratings when she was SoS, prior to the ridiculous investigations into Benghazi and her emails. Show me a single reputable poll where her approval rating was 70% after the primaries. That’s where the electoral campaign is at in Florida, you dingus.

[Beet]

DeSantis needs to keep the race focused like a laser on social issues for the next 8 weeks, and try to ride Scott's coattails.

[Zaybay]

DeSantis needs to keep the race focused like a laser on social issues for the next 8 weeks, and try to ride Scott's coattails.

How would that help? According to this poll, DeSantis' only path is to take some of the Latino vote. If he goes down that path, Gillum wins.

[Beet]

DeSantis needs to keep the race focused like a laser on social issues for the next 8 weeks, and try to ride Scott's coattails.

How would that help? According to this poll, DeSantis' only path is to take some of the Latino vote. If he goes down that path, Gillum wins.

What? Plenty of Latinos are social conservative.

[Zaybay]

DeSantis needs to keep the race focused like a laser on social issues for the next 8 weeks, and try to ride Scott's coattails.

How would that help? According to this poll, DeSantis' only path is to take some of the Latino vote. If he goes down that path, Gillum wins.

What? Plenty of Latinos are social conservative.

Tell that to DeSantis, cause hes alienating the lot of them.

[Use Your Illusion]

DeSantis needs to keep the race focused like a laser on social issues for the next 8 weeks, and try to ride Scott's coattails.

How would that help? According to this poll, DeSantis' only path is to take some of the Latino vote. If he goes down that path, Gillum wins.

What? Plenty of Latinos are social conservative.

Plenty? Understatement of the year. If we took an actual survey we'd find that something like almost half of the Latino population is conservative by nature. If the GOP ever actually got serious about trying with them they'd be unstoppable in Florida

[junior chįmp]

DeSantis needs to keep the race focused like a laser on social issues for the next 8 weeks, and try to ride Scott's coattails.

How would that help? According to this poll, DeSantis' only path is to take some of the Latino vote. If he goes down that path, Gillum wins.

What? Plenty of Latinos are social conservative.

So are blacks...but they'd still never vote GOP

[Beet]

DeSantis needs to keep the race focused like a laser on social issues for the next 8 weeks, and try to ride Scott's coattails.

How would that help? According to this poll, DeSantis' only path is to take some of the Latino vote. If he goes down that path, Gillum wins.

What? Plenty of Latinos are social conservative.

So are blacks...but they'd still never vote GOP

DeSantis is already winning 30% of Latinos in this poll, with another 10% undecided.

[Zaybay]

DeSantis needs to keep the race focused like a laser on social issues for the next 8 weeks, and try to ride Scott's coattails.

How would that help? According to this poll, DeSantis' only path is to take some of the Latino vote. If he goes down that path, Gillum wins.

What? Plenty of Latinos are social conservative.

So are blacks...but they'd still never vote GOP

DeSantis is already winning 30% of Latinos in this poll, with another 10% undecided.

and since DeSantis is already alienating them, its likely that they will go DEM, and guess what, there are also 8% AAs who are undecided, and I doubt they go in a large number to DeSantis.

[adrac]

All better praise future Governor-elect Gillum for dragging Nelson across the finish line on election day.

I can hardly believe it, but it looks like we might get this.

[mencken]

Yeah, I totally trust a partisan poll (who has been caught red-handed manipulating their results) taken the day after both primaries and one of the nominees having his words twisted by the media.

Also LOL Nelson.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

As long as we keep DeSantis out I'm happy

[Beet]

First of all, 68% of voters are white, so he doesn't need any Latinos technically. It's Gillum who needs white voters. DeSantis will more easily win over white and Hispanic and black voters (the latter apart from explicit racial appeals) with social issues rather than economic issues. That's why he should focus on them.

[Zaybay]

Yeah, I totally trust a partisan poll (who has been caught red-handed manipulating their results) taken the day after both primaries and one of the nominees having his words twisted by the media.

Also LOL Nelson.

1. Its not a partisan pollster, they are independent, and even have a GOP bias, according to nate Silver. The article you link is from 2013, when they actually worked for the Democrats, they dont anymore.

2. Its been 2 days, which is enough time to do a poll.

3. Im pretty sure that Gillum wouldnt be polling at 48% if it was DeSantis who the media was picking at, there would just be more undecideds.

[ON Progressive]

!!!!

[Devout Centrist]

No way, this race is Safe R. Florida is not going to elect a socialist swinger. They will obviously vote for ‘monkey man’ Ronnie Santis

[Podgy the Bear]

I find this result stunning and hard to believe--but it clearly indicates Gillum is holding the Democratic vote and getting voters out of the woodwork.

And it's unfortunate that Florida is one of only four states that deny the vote to convicted felons--even after they have paid the penalty and served time.  Maybe a Governor Gillum can do something about this.

[Zaybay]

I find this result stunning and hard to believe--but it clearly indicates Gillum is holding the Democratic vote and getting voters out of the woodwork.

And it's unfortunate that Florida is one of only four states that deny the vote to convicted felons--even after they have paid the penalty and served time.  Maybe a Governor Gillum can do something about this.

there is an amendment on the ballot this year, it needs 60% approval to work. It would give felons the right to vote. The good news is that the last poll gave the idea around 70% approval.

[Skye]

1. Its not a partisan pollster, they are independent, and even have a GOP bias, according to nate Silver. The article you link is from 2013, when they actually worked for the Democrats, they dont anymore.

PPP is most definitely a Democratic friendly pollster. Like Remington is a GOP one.

[Zaybay]

1. Its not a partisan pollster, they are independent, and even have a GOP bias, according to nate Silver. The article you link is from 2013, when they actually worked for the Democrats, they dont anymore.

PPP is most definitely a Democratic friendly pollster. Like Remington is a GOP one.

Actually, looking I was looking at last years rankings. This year, it has a D bias....of 0.3 points. Surprisingly, Remington also has a slight D bias of 1.1 points. But it should be noted that these are numbers for indie polls they do, not internals. So, if this poll was an internal from the Gillum campaign, I would believe it, but since its not, then it has a great deal of merit, having an average mistake of 4.9 points, lower than most, but not as low as Q or Monmouth.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Maybe Gillium will drag Nelson across the finish line.

[96FJV]

My Boy Gillum! He is really charismatic and despite being far left, I find him much more electable than that idiot DeSantis.

[Vosem]

Upset primary winners typically surge after their upset. Still good news for Gillum that he's ahead of Nelson, though.

[Mr. Smith]

This only proves Nelson is seriously vulnerable. And that is concerning.

It changes nothing from my expectations.