FL: PPP: GILLUM +5

[Zaybay]

Hes doing better than Nelson!!!

[Zaybay]

Its PPP and Gillum's favorability will crater once he starts his whole socialism sh**t

PPP has been reliable this entire cycle, and it was last year. And I really doubt that his """"""Socialism"""""", a word he has never used, will hurt him.

[Zaybay]

And to think, most on Atlas thought that we needed a centrist, boring candidate that would do nothing for liberal or progressive causes to win FL. It looks like change is finally coming! At this point, hes more favoured than Abrams, and Nelson.

[Zaybay]

And to think, most on Atlas thought that we needed a centrist, boring candidate

Not really. I think when Gillum won, more people were saying Tossup ---> Tossup.

Have you read "Gillum's chance" thread? Or the FL-Gov thread? Or my joke thread which got taken seriously?

[Zaybay]

No....... ING...... way.





Oh my God




Does anyone have salt for my crow? This is a good/almost very good first poll for Gillum. We're just getting started so you can't read too much into it.

I would agree, it is early. But DeSantis is already being pelted by scandals, Gillum has successfully pivoted the FBI invest, and hes already near 50%. Hes doing better than Nelson!

[Zaybay]

Have you read "Gillum's chance" thread? Or the FL-Gov thread? Or my joke thread which got taken seriously?

My recollection is there were a lot of sarcastic posts ironically agreeing with your joke, and a bunch of people empty quoting Tossup ---> Tossup

Some people did clearly agree that Gillum was much weaker, but it didn't seem to me like a clear majority.

Generally, it seems that people moved it to lean R after hearing that he won, but then many started to warm up to him. The percentages do show that many saw him as the underdog, however. Hopefully this changes that idea.

[Zaybay]

BADA BING

BADA BOOM

[Zaybay]

Something funny I noticed in the crosstabs. When people were saying how Gillum would be a weaker candidate, most pointed to the white vote, that he would lose this, something people like Graham and Nelson could get. And this is true, Gillum is only at 37% with the white vote.

But then I looked at Nelson, and I was shocked. He got the exact same percentage, 37%. In fact, Gillum's lead comes from the fact that he does better with AAs and Latinos, where Nelson does not.

Based on this, its highly likely that Gillum was actually the strongest candidate the whole time, and Graham was simply overhyped.

[Zaybay]

DeSantis needs to keep the race focused like a laser on social issues for the next 8 weeks, and try to ride Scott's coattails.

How would that help? According to this poll, DeSantis' only path is to take some of the Latino vote. If he goes down that path, Gillum wins.

[Zaybay]

DeSantis needs to keep the race focused like a laser on social issues for the next 8 weeks, and try to ride Scott's coattails.

How would that help? According to this poll, DeSantis' only path is to take some of the Latino vote. If he goes down that path, Gillum wins.

What? Plenty of Latinos are social conservative.

Tell that to DeSantis, cause hes alienating the lot of them.

[Zaybay]

DeSantis needs to keep the race focused like a laser on social issues for the next 8 weeks, and try to ride Scott's coattails.

How would that help? According to this poll, DeSantis' only path is to take some of the Latino vote. If he goes down that path, Gillum wins.

What? Plenty of Latinos are social conservative.

So are blacks...but they'd still never vote GOP

DeSantis is already winning 30% of Latinos in this poll, with another 10% undecided.

and since DeSantis is already alienating them, its likely that they will go DEM, and guess what, there are also 8% AAs who are undecided, and I doubt they go in a large number to DeSantis.

[Zaybay]

Yeah, I totally trust a partisan poll (who has been caught red-handed manipulating their results) taken the day after both primaries and one of the nominees having his words twisted by the media.

Also LOL Nelson.

1. Its not a partisan pollster, they are independent, and even have a GOP bias, according to nate Silver. The article you link is from 2013, when they actually worked for the Democrats, they dont anymore.

2. Its been 2 days, which is enough time to do a poll.

3. Im pretty sure that Gillum wouldnt be polling at 48% if it was DeSantis who the media was picking at, there would just be more undecideds.

[Zaybay]

I find this result stunning and hard to believe--but it clearly indicates Gillum is holding the Democratic vote and getting voters out of the woodwork.

And it's unfortunate that Florida is one of only four states that deny the vote to convicted felons--even after they have paid the penalty and served time.  Maybe a Governor Gillum can do something about this.

there is an amendment on the ballot this year, it needs 60% approval to work. It would give felons the right to vote. The good news is that the last poll gave the idea around 70% approval.

[Zaybay]

1. Its not a partisan pollster, they are independent, and even have a GOP bias, according to nate Silver. The article you link is from 2013, when they actually worked for the Democrats, they dont anymore.

PPP is most definitely a Democratic friendly pollster. Like Remington is a GOP one.

Actually, looking I was looking at last years rankings. This year, it has a D bias....of 0.3 points. Surprisingly, Remington also has a slight D bias of 1.1 points. But it should be noted that these are numbers for indie polls they do, not internals. So, if this poll was an internal from the Gillum campaign, I would believe it, but since its not, then it has a great deal of merit, having an average mistake of 4.9 points, lower than most, but not as low as Q or Monmouth.

[Zaybay]

Maybe Gillium will drag Nelson across the finish line.

It may be the biggest story on election night if we end up with Governor-elect Gillum and Senator-elect Scott.

Unlikely, FL is way too polarized. That would require one of the candidates to break the D hold on Latinos, like Rubio did. Otherwise, the two will go the same way.

[Zaybay]

Unlikely, FL is way too polarized. That would require one of the candidates to break the D hold on Latinos, like Rubio did. Otherwise, the two will go the same way.

... and what Scott's campaign is actively trying to do, yes.

According to polling, its not working, so, thats good.

[Zaybay]

Let us stop all bull.

Florida is the most difficult state in the country to poll.

PPP was way off the mark in Florida in 2016.  Rasmussen was off in at least 2012.  If you look at the polls 2016: they were all over the place.

I believe until all the polls substantially line up with one person ahead by a lest 4, it is proper to call the Florida Senate and Gubernatorial races toss ups.

Any other call is really a call of your heart.

....Your kidding right? FL is not at all difficult to poll, in fact, demographics make it a more R leaning bias in polling(retirees are more likely to answer a robo-call). There are 3 states that are difficult to poll. NV, IN, and ND, due to polling laws, and, in NV's case, the FL problem.

And for being off in 2016, they were good in the senate race, and PPP didnt do the actual general, so I have no idea what you are talking about.

[Zaybay]

PPP isn't reliable at all. You probably can put PPP & NBC/Marist in the same box IMO.

Marist is one of the most reliable polls of all time, so I dont know what you are trying to say.

[Zaybay]

Wouldn't be surprised if this same poll only showed Graham up by 1 or 2, if up at all.

Based on the crosstabs, I would have to agree with you. Nelson and Gillum are getting the same percentage of the white vote, while Gillum overpreforms with AAs and Hispanic voters. These voters were not Graham's base, it would have been the white voters. But it seems that they wont even budge for Nelson.

[Zaybay]

IceSpear and RubioRepublican told me Gillum can't win though

Atlas just got so much egg on its face.

You must be pretty bad at math if you think 30% = 0%.

Anyway, the level of football spiking in this thread over a single August poll is insane. From reading this thread you'd think Gillum just won the actual election by double digits. I'll admit he's doing better than I suspected he would in this poll, but again, it's a single poll. In August. You all need to chill out, the hackery here is reaching insane and unprecedented levels.

The problem with this line of thinking is that it should be DeSantis overpreforming at this point, not Gillum. In wave years, the party in opposition, the Dems, should see a shift from undecideds after labour day. It happened in 2010, 2006, 2008 and 2014. What most people are freaking out about, and rightfully so, is that Gillum has a modest lead in an independent poll from a B pollster before Labour day. Thats pretty big.

[Zaybay]

IceSpear and RubioRepublican told me Gillum can't win though

Atlas just got so much egg on its face.

You must be pretty bad at math if you think 30% = 0%.

Anyway, the level of football spiking in this thread over a single August poll is insane. From reading this thread you'd think Gillum just won the actual election by double digits. I'll admit he's doing better than I suspected he would in this poll, but again, it's a single poll. In August. You all need to chill out, the hackery here is reaching insane and unprecedented levels.

The problem with this line of thinking is that it should be DeSantis overpreforming at this point, not Gillum. In wave years, the party in opposition, the Dems, should see a shift from undecideds after labour day. It happened in 2010, 2006, 2008 and 2014. What most people are freaking out about, and rightfully so, is that Gillum has a modest lead in an independent poll from a B pollster before Labour day. Thats pretty big.

Well, two things. For one, this is only a single data point. We'll need to see what other pollsters find (assuming they're not junk polls, which admittedly is a big ask these days.) Secondly, polls taken immediately after a primary frequently give wonky results. Off the top of my head, Creigh Deeds was actually leading in a poll in 2009 taken immediately after the primary which caused Dem hacks to start popping the champagne, and we all know how that turned out.

But, again, you are making the mischaractization of who should be leading. In 2009, the opposition party was the Republican Party, so it makes sense that Deeds would start to fall and eventually lose. In FL, the party that should be leading right now should be the Republicans, to some extent. Gillum is already polling almost outside the margin of error. And while it is one data point, it is a rather reliable data point, especially since most FL pollsters tend to be.....not the greatest.

[Zaybay]

Yeah, I mean...assuming this poll is accurate, then it's likely that virtually any Democratic candidate for Governor here would have been up by as much or more had they secured the nomination. For all the talk of voter enthusiasm, it seems too many here have too much of their own and not enough of an understanding of how it works.

In this particular case, it's not as if hundreds of thousands of black and low propensity progressive voters went from knowing nothing about the race to "oh em gee I'm definitely voting now!" in 4 days. FL is a swing state but it doesn't gyrate - and certainly not this much - on a whim. There probably aren't even enough people in the entire state who heard any meaningful amount more about the race in the 4 days between the primary and this poll to take the final margin from a tie to +5.

Anyway, the underlying mistake is that Atlas posters once again assume the electorate follows politics with the focus of die-hard fans (i.e. themselves), but makes their decisions like absent-minded asylum patients.

The problem with this arguement, and the one that Gwen or Levine would do the same/ overpreform, is the crosstabs. In this race we actually have someone to compare Gillum to, Nelson.

Gillum is getting 37% of the white vote in this poll. Now, this should be the low point for FL Ds, as Levine and Gwen should be overpreforming. But Nelson, who is close to Gwen and Levine in strategy/politics, is only getting 37% of the white vote. This shows that, even Gwen, the white vote would be similar.

Now, Gillum has focused on Hispanics and AAs for his election. He won both groups in the primary. And, looking at his numbers, it shows. He is massively overpreforming with these groups. Gwen and Levine, who aimed to court white voters in the panhandle, would not be receiving this percentage. Nelson shows this, being down compared to Gillum.

So yeah, most of the other candidates might be only tied with DeSantis, or only a little ahead. Gillum was probably the best candidate we could have chosen.