Ohio Megathread

[morgieb]

I get the feeling Pureval's violation was easier to stick to Pureval himself whereas it's harder for Gillum as the incident was from someone else in city hall?

[KingSweden]

I get the feeling Pureval's violation was easier to stick to Pureval himself whereas it's harder for Gillum as the incident was from someone else in city hall?

Good point

[henster]

Aftab should've waited until 2020 to run honestly, it never looks good jumping to another office almost immediately after getting elected to one. Sadly, I think his political career is probably over after this. Sometimes its all about timing if you ever want to be successful in politics.

[ON Progressive]

Aftab should've waited until 2020 to run honestly, it never looks good jumping to another office almost immediately after getting elected to one. Sadly, I think his political career is probably over after this. Sometimes its all about timing if you ever want to be successful in politics.

If there's any state where losing an election doesn't end political careers, Ohio is it. See Mike DeWine and Sherrod Brown for good examples of this.

[libertpaulian]

Aftab should've waited until 2020 to run honestly, it never looks good jumping to another office almost immediately after getting elected to one. Sadly, I think his political career is probably over after this. Sometimes its all about timing if you ever want to be successful in politics.

If there's any state where losing an election doesn't end political careers, Ohio is it. See Mike DeWine and Sherrod Brown for good examples of this.

...and potentially Ricahrd Cordray in six weeks.

[BuckeyeNut]

Aftab should've waited until 2020 to run honestly, it never looks good jumping to another office almost immediately after getting elected to one. Sadly, I think his political career is probably over after this. Sometimes its all about timing if you ever want to be successful in politics.

lol no. He'll be fine.

[politicallefty]

For those in the know, what's the general thinking on OH-14? Sabato has the race at Lean R (others Likely R), but Democrats seem to have a reasonably strong candidate and it's a pretty swingy district at the presidential level. Apart from OH-01 and OH-12 (and maybe OH-10), it seems to be the only other competitive House race in the state. Right now, it's unfortunately looking like Ohio was the most successful gerrymander this decade.

[beesley]

I'll just do my ratings (no tossups) while there's a gap in the thread:

OH-01: Tilt R, but nearer to Tilt D than Lean R.
OH-02: Safe R.
OH-03: Safe D.
OH-04: Safe R.
OH-05: Safe R.
OH-06: Safe R. Clearly after 2012 it became a lost cause for Democrats.
OH-07: I would have said Safe R, but it appears it's actually Likely R. This is an awfully drawn district.
OH-08: Safe R. Davidson is effectively a freshman but is a good Rep.
OH-09: Safe D.
OH-10: Again, it should be Safe R, but I'll put it as Likely.
OH-11: Safe D. Safest district in the state.
OH-12: Likely R. I don't see this flipping but it is competitive, and there's the SE fallout.
OH-13: Safe D.
OH-14: Lean R, but nearer to Tilt R than Likely R. Joyce is in trouble but he should pull through.
OH-15: Safe R.
OH-16: Safe R. This race could have been competitive... but it just never did.
OH-Sen: Lean D, but nearer to Likely D than Tilt D/R.

[BuckeyeNut]

I'll just do my ratings (no tossups) while there's a gap in the thread:

Generally nice ratings, and welcome to the forum! Two things, though.

1: OH-08 being safe has nothing to do with Davidson being a freshman. John Boehner had that seat drawn for him to make sure he never faced a remotely competitive challenge.

2: Sherrod is definitely Likely D. All but Safe, essentially. Renacci hasn't lead a single poll, including numerous internals.

[bagelman]

For those in the know, what's the general thinking on OH-14? Sabato has the race at Lean R (others Likely R), but Democrats seem to have a reasonably strong candidate and it's a pretty swingy district at the presidential level. Apart from OH-01 and OH-12 (and maybe OH-10), it seems to be the only other competitive House race in the state. Right now, it's unfortunately looking like Ohio was the most successful gerrymander this decade.

The Republican incumbent is also quite strong. There are plenty of yard signs for Rader but she's not running against a slouch.

I really envy the people of Pennsylvania for having their districts redrawn, this gerrymander is the pits. OH-1 ought to be at least Likely D.

[BuckeyeNut]

For those in the know, what's the general thinking on OH-14? Sabato has the race at Lean R (others Likely R), but Democrats seem to have a reasonably strong candidate and it's a pretty swingy district at the presidential level. Apart from OH-01 and OH-12 (and maybe OH-10), it seems to be the only other competitive House race in the state. Right now, it's unfortunately looking like Ohio was the most successful gerrymander this decade.

The Republican incumbent is also quite strong. There are plenty of yard signs for Rader but she's not running against a slouch.

I really envy the people of Pennsylvania for having their districts redrawn, this gerrymander is the pits. OH-1 ought to be at least Likely D.

Hell, it would be under the 2002-2012 lines...

[TJ in Oregon]

For those in the know, what's the general thinking on OH-14? Sabato has the race at Lean R (others Likely R), but Democrats seem to have a reasonably strong candidate and it's a pretty swingy district at the presidential level. Apart from OH-01 and OH-12 (and maybe OH-10), it seems to be the only other competitive House race in the state. Right now, it's unfortunately looking like Ohio was the most successful gerrymander this decade.

OH-14 has traditionally had no problem electing moderate R's by a huge margin. Joyce would seem pretty well set to continue in that vein. On paper it should be competitive, but it's probably a wave insurance tier seat with Joyce.

[Ohioguy29]

Alright, the NYTimes OH-1 poll has concluded now, and it shows Chabot ahead by 9. I honestly can't even take this seriously; a recent Republican internal could only manage to get him ahead by 7. So throw it on the pile, but it's an outlier.

The fact that a reputable poll can even get those numbers is concerning though. This race hasn't been "tilt D" for me for a while now, and at this point I'm thinking it's "tilt R." Not because of this poll, which only cemented concerns I already had. I was feeling a change already. People are seeing Aftab differently.

[BuckeyeNut]

The campaign finance hit is sticking, looks like. Even though the average of poll results still only show R+5. It'll be interesting to see how things look in the twelfth, which hasn't been publicly polled since the special.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Yet another casualty of the right-wing media.

[Ohioguy29]

Yet another casualty of the right-wing media.

My question is why the hell isn't the DCCC or some similar group running a bunch of nasty attack ads of their own? Chabot has possible campaign finance violations that really sound like some shady stuff; it would be be so easy to blast him on that stuff. I hope they start doing it in the last month before the election. If not, they didn't leave it all on the field. Connie Pillich already laid the groundwork by filing an FEC complaint; time for Democrats to follow through.

[IceSpear]

Yet another casualty of the right-wing media.

My question is why the hell isn't the DCCC or some similar group running a bunch of nasty attack ads of their own? Chabot has possible campaign finance violations that really sound like some shady stuff; it would be be so easy to blast him on that stuff. I hope they start doing it in the last month before the election. If not, they didn't leave it all on the field. Connie Pillich already laid the groundwork by filing an FEC complaint; time for Democrats to follow through.

Running attack ads against Republicans is too uncivil and coastal elitist. Remember, when they go low, we go high.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Yet another casualty of the right-wing media.

My question is why the hell isn't the DCCC or some similar group running a bunch of nasty attack ads of their own? Chabot has possible campaign finance violations that really sound like some shady stuff; it would be be so easy to blast him on that stuff. I hope they start doing it in the last month before the election. If not, they didn't leave it all on the field. Connie Pillich already laid the groundwork by filing an FEC complaint; time for Democrats to follow through.

Running attack ads against Republicans is too uncivil and coastal elitist. Remember, when they go low, we go high.

YOU CALLED US DEPLORABLE! MUH COASTAL ELITISM!

[Ohioguy29]

Donald Trump and Steve Chabot did a rally together in the Warren County suburb of Lebanon where they talked about Kanye West and stuff. Local politician Jeff Pastor has interpreted this as Trump attempting to reach out to the black community lol (I like Pastor but sometimes his Republican hackishness really comes through.) Aftab and John Lewis did their own rally at a black church because Aftab actually makes an effort to reach out to black voters.

https://www.wcpo.com/news/local-news/hamilton-county/cincinnati/civil-rights-icon-john-lewis-stumps-for-aftab-pureval-in-congressional-race-to-unseat-steve-chabot

[Skye]

Just dropping this here 'cause I thought it was hilarious:

https://twitter.com/HenryJGomez/status/1052631849133137921

[ON Progressive]

Just dropping this here 'cause I thought it was hilarious:

https://twitter.com/HenryJGomez/status/1052631849133137921

LMAO. That's a brutal insult.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Just dropping this here 'cause I thought it was hilarious:

https://twitter.com/HenryJGomez/status/1052631849133137921

Brutal

[KingSweden]

Just dropping this here 'cause I thought it was hilarious:

https://twitter.com/HenryJGomez/status/1052631849133137921

Ahahahahahaha that’s amazing

[Ohioguy29]

Just dropping this here 'cause I thought it was hilarious:

https://twitter.com/HenryJGomez/status/1052631849133137921

Lol was coming to post that.

I spent so long being convinced that Renacci was a better candidate for the GOP than Mandel. How I overestimated him...

[Ohioguy29]

The last gasps of a dying campaign:

https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/2018/10/17/jim-renacci-steps-up-allegations-assault-against-sherrod-brown-says-multiple-women-have-come-forward/1669229002/