Ohio Megathread

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

Pet candidate debate over analyzing incoming!

Just left the Harbaugh-Gibbs debate. Harbaugh spent most of the debate hammering Gibbs on pre-existing conditions while Gibbs gave statistics at about 200 MPH. I guess they where supposed to suggest the economy is doing good but there where some parts where I really couldn't understand him. Gibbs just isn't a great public speaker, which is understandable. The left wing of the audience was very rowdy throughout, which of course led to the climax of the night, when Gibbs told Harbaugh to "keep his constituents under control" (paraphrase) and Harbaugh responded with "They're your constituents too." Harbaugh also hit Gibbs on jokingly comparing his service in Congress to military service. Harbaugh was indirect at sometimes though, but his ability as a debater and Gibbs' inability as a public speaker should make this a no brainer who """won""" the debate.

Despite Harbaugh being a great guy, great candidate, and having a very good performance tonight, I still expect him to lose by high single digits. I really hope he dosen't stop in November though. If he was in say OH-16 then it would be a tossup, if Hagan was the R then maybe even lean or likely d at this point. He has a future in Columbus and I'm hoping even beyond.

Why is Christina Hagan such a bad candidate?

She ran Trumpian, and not McSally "just for the primary" Trumpian, I really didn't see her winning in such a suburban district.

[BuckeyeNut]

10,000 new college-aged voters have registered in OH-12 since the special election in August.

OH-12 is home to part of THE Ohio State University as well as Otterbein University in Franklin County, Ohio Wesleyan University in Delaware County, and Dennison College in Licking County.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

https://www.cleveland.com/news/2018/10/aftab-purevals-congressional-campaign-manager-steps-down.html

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Doesn't seem good coming less than a week before the election.

Lean R ---> Likely R

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

https://www.cleveland.com/news/2018/10/aftab-purevals-congressional-campaign-manager-steps-down.html

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Doesn't seem good coming less than a week before the election.

Lean R ---> Likely R

The Pureval train was fun while it lasted. OH-12 is definitely our best shot of flipping a House seat now.

[Ohioguy29]

https://www.cleveland.com/news/2018/10/aftab-purevals-congressional-campaign-manager-steps-down.html

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Doesn't seem good coming less than a week before the election.

Lean R ---> Likely R

He should've fired her long ago. This is why you don't make your college best friend you campaign manager; you overlook glaring problems. I predict we don't flip any congressional seats in Ohio.

[beesley]

I'll just do my ratings (no tossups) while there's a gap in the thread:

OH-01: Tilt R, but nearer to Tilt D than Lean R.
OH-02: Safe R.
OH-03: Safe D.
OH-04: Safe R.
OH-05: Safe R.
OH-06: Safe R. Clearly after 2012 it became a lost cause for Democrats.
OH-07: I would have said Safe R, but it appears it's actually Likely R. This is an awfully drawn district.
OH-08: Safe R. Davidson is effectively a freshman but is a good Rep.
OH-09: Safe D.
OH-10: Again, it should be Safe R, but I'll put it as Likely.
OH-11: Safe D. Safest district in the state.
OH-12: Likely R. I don't see this flipping but it is competitive, and there's the SE fallout.
OH-13: Safe D.
OH-14: Lean R, but nearer to Tilt R than Likely R. Joyce is in trouble but he should pull through.
OH-15: Safe R.
OH-16: Safe R. This race could have been competitive... but it just never did.
OH-Sen: Lean D, but nearer to Likely D than Tilt D/R.

The only changes I will make now:

OH-Sen Lean D -> Likely D
OH-01 Tilt R -> Lean R
OH-12 Likely R -> Tilt R
OH-16 Safe R -> Likely R

[Ohioguy29]

Part of why the Aftab witch hunt was so successful was because of biased hack "journalism" from the Enquirer. Jason Williams puts his hackery on display:

https://twitter.com/jwilliamscincy/status/1057703879788388353

For the record, it ended up being a traffic stop. In other news, I totally saw a police car on Steve Chabot's street. Could he be up to something?!?!?!?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

After the Cincinnati Enquirer actually endorsed Steve Chabot for Mayor of Cincinnati, I guess this is typical for that right-wing rag.

[Ohioguy29]

After the Cincinnati Enquirer actually endorsed Steve Chabot for Mayor of Cincinnati, I guess this is typical for that right-wing rag.

I thought it was Wenstrup who ran for mayor, not Chabot. Either way, they continue to be the right-wing rag they've always been, Hillary endorsement notwithstanding.

Williams, weirdly enough, seems like he favors for Cordray for governor. The rare Chabot/Cordray voter rears its head.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I thought it was Wenstrup who ran for mayor, not Chabot.

I guess this was maybe early '90s or so.

[Ohioguy29]

Ohio Elections Commission hearing was today, charges against Aftab were DISMISSED. He did have to pay a $100 fine because of a clerical error (money to pay for a photographer was paid from the wrong account.) Definitely not the results COAST and Chabot wanted though.

https://twitter.com/Enquirer/status/1058112696879587328

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Ohio Elections Commission hearing was today, charges against Aftab were DISMISSED. He did have to pay a $100 fine because of a clerical error (money to pay for a photographer was paid from the wrong account.) Definitely not the results COAST and Chabot wanted though.

Channel 19 never reported that it was dismissed. Aftab having to pay a fine is about all they've talked about all day.

[libertpaulian]

Ohio Elections Commission hearing was today, charges against Aftab were DISMISSED. He did have to pay a $100 fine because of a clerical error (money to pay for a photographer was paid from the wrong account.) Definitely not the results COAST and Chabot wanted though.

https://twitter.com/Enquirer/status/1058112696879587328

If he loses on Tuesday, he needs to run a fierce, no-holds barred, total revenge campaign against Chabot in 2020.

[Ohioguy29]

Ohio Elections Commission hearing was today, charges against Aftab were DISMISSED. He did have to pay a $100 fine because of a clerical error (money to pay for a photographer was paid from the wrong account.) Definitely not the results COAST and Chabot wanted though.

Channel 19 never reported that it was dismissed. Aftab having to pay a fine is about all they've talked about all day.

Of course

[BuckeyeNut]

Ohio Elections Commission hearing was today, charges against Aftab were DISMISSED. He did have to pay a $100 fine because of a clerical error (money to pay for a photographer was paid from the wrong account.) Definitely not the results COAST and Chabot wanted though.

https://twitter.com/Enquirer/status/1058112696879587328

If he loses on Tuesday, he needs to run a fierce, no-holds barred, total revenge campaign against Chabot in 2020.

Absolutely not. He needs to go back to the CoC's office and sit quiet for another term and a half.

[Ohioguy29]

Ohio Elections Commission hearing was today, charges against Aftab were DISMISSED. He did have to pay a $100 fine because of a clerical error (money to pay for a photographer was paid from the wrong account.) Definitely not the results COAST and Chabot wanted though.

https://twitter.com/Enquirer/status/1058112696879587328

If he loses on Tuesday, he needs to run a fierce, no-holds barred, total revenge campaign against Chabot in 2020.

Absolutely not. He needs to go back to the CoC's office and sit quiet for another term and a half.

Agreed. At the very least he needs to wait until after redistricting. He'd have no issue winning in 2022 if Trump wins a second term, otherwise 2024 would be his best shot. Honestly he might be able to win in 2022 even with a Democrat holding the presidency if the new district is favorable enough, but why push it?

He could also run for mayor or county prosecutor if he's interested. But those aren't the best paths to statewide office so he'll probably pass on those. Too bad, I hate Sittenfeld and Deters.

[Ohioguy29]

https://twitter.com/AftabPureval/status/1058117662436458497

I'll take "Things that never happen to Rich Cordray when he's at the gas station" for $100.

Win or lose, Aftab will be helpful in turning out the vote for other candidates. I haven't seen this kind of enthusiasm for a political candidate since Obama.

[Ohioguy29]

https://twitter.com/GelaSmith/status/1058141060038320128

Troy Balderson seeming like a hot mess here.

[BuckeyeNut]

Ohio Elections Commission hearing was today, charges against Aftab were DISMISSED. He did have to pay a $100 fine because of a clerical error (money to pay for a photographer was paid from the wrong account.) Definitely not the results COAST and Chabot wanted though.

https://twitter.com/Enquirer/status/1058112696879587328

If he loses on Tuesday, he needs to run a fierce, no-holds barred, total revenge campaign against Chabot in 2020.

Absolutely not. He needs to go back to the CoC's office and sit quiet for another term and a half.

Agreed. At the very least he needs to wait until after redistricting. He'd have no issue winning in 2022 if Trump wins a second term, otherwise 2024 would be his best shot. Honestly he might be able to win in 2022 even with a Democrat holding the presidency if the new district is favorable enough, but why push it?

He could also run for mayor or county prosecutor if he's interested. But those aren't the best paths to statewide office so he'll probably pass on those. Too bad, I hate Sittenfeld and Deters.

He’d have competition with Zach Klein down the line, but if Aftab ran for County Prosecutor it wuld be a decent launchig pad to Attorney General.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/GelaSmith/status/1058141060038320128

Troy Balderson seeming like a hot mess here.

Holy crap, Danny O'Connor would destroy Balderson in a fight.

[Ohioguy29]

Ohio Elections Commission hearing was today, charges against Aftab were DISMISSED. He did have to pay a $100 fine because of a clerical error (money to pay for a photographer was paid from the wrong account.) Definitely not the results COAST and Chabot wanted though.

https://twitter.com/Enquirer/status/1058112696879587328

If he loses on Tuesday, he needs to run a fierce, no-holds barred, total revenge campaign against Chabot in 2020.

Absolutely not. He needs to go back to the CoC's office and sit quiet for another term and a half.

Agreed. At the very least he needs to wait until after redistricting. He'd have no issue winning in 2022 if Trump wins a second term, otherwise 2024 would be his best shot. Honestly he might be able to win in 2022 even with a Democrat holding the presidency if the new district is favorable enough, but why push it?

He could also run for mayor or county prosecutor if he's interested. But those aren't the best paths to statewide office so he'll probably pass on those. Too bad, I hate Sittenfeld and Deters.

He’d have competition with Zach Klein down the line, but if Aftab ran for County Prosecutor it wuld be a decent launchig pad to Attorney General.

As long as he stays out of the muck that is city politics. There's no way to come out of that looking good in Cincinnati.

I don't see Klein beating Aftab in a primary. Maybe that's my Cincinnati bias but that's how I see it.

[Karpatsky]

Sherrod's new ad with the washing machine company and the newspaper quotes about his appearance is great.

[BuckeyeNut]

Ohio Elections Commission hearing was today, charges against Aftab were DISMISSED. He did have to pay a $100 fine because of a clerical error (money to pay for a photographer was paid from the wrong account.) Definitely not the results COAST and Chabot wanted though.

https://twitter.com/Enquirer/status/1058112696879587328

If he loses on Tuesday, he needs to run a fierce, no-holds barred, total revenge campaign against Chabot in 2020.

Absolutely not. He needs to go back to the CoC's office and sit quiet for another term and a half.

Agreed. At the very least he needs to wait until after redistricting. He'd have no issue winning in 2022 if Trump wins a second term, otherwise 2024 would be his best shot. Honestly he might be able to win in 2022 even with a Democrat holding the presidency if the new district is favorable enough, but why push it?

He could also run for mayor or county prosecutor if he's interested. But those aren't the best paths to statewide office so he'll probably pass on those. Too bad, I hate Sittenfeld and Deters.

He’d have competition with Zach Klein down the line, but if Aftab ran for County Prosecutor it wuld be a decent launchig pad to Attorney General.

As long as he stays out of the muck that is city politics. There's no way to come out of that looking good in Cincinnati.

I don't see Klein beating Aftab in a primary. Maybe that's my Cincinnati bias but that's how I see it.

It would be an interesting primary, that’s for sure. No guarantees Aftab runs for County Prosecutor, while Klein almost certainly will.

I know you don’t like PG, but he’s got star power galore, re: Cinci City Politics being quite damaging. But Cranley definitely took a bruising in that final Mayoral primary...

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Ohio Elections Commission hearing was today, charges against Aftab were DISMISSED. He did have to pay a $100 fine because of a clerical error (money to pay for a photographer was paid from the wrong account.) Definitely not the results COAST and Chabot wanted though.

https://twitter.com/Enquirer/status/1058112696879587328

If he loses on Tuesday, he needs to run a fierce, no-holds barred, total revenge campaign against Chabot in 2020.

Absolutely not. He needs to go back to the CoC's office and sit quiet for another term and a half.

Agreed. At the very least he needs to wait until after redistricting. He'd have no issue winning in 2022 if Trump wins a second term, otherwise 2024 would be his best shot. Honestly he might be able to win in 2022 even with a Democrat holding the presidency if the new district is favorable enough, but why push it?

He could also run for mayor or county prosecutor if he's interested. But those aren't the best paths to statewide office so he'll probably pass on those. Too bad, I hate Sittenfeld and Deters.

He’d have competition with Zach Klein down the line, but if Aftab ran for County Prosecutor it wuld be a decent launchig pad to Attorney General.

As long as he stays out of the muck that is city politics. There's no way to come out of that looking good in Cincinnati.

I don't see Klein beating Aftab in a primary. Maybe that's my Cincinnati bias but that's how I see it.

Klein would steamroll Pureval; it wouldn’t even be close.  Tbh, Pureval is damaged goods at this point.  He blew a very winnable race by making some pretty dumb mistakes.  The idea that his comeback path (if he has one) will run through a law enforcement office even though part of how he blew the race was by breaking the law strikes me as problematic (to say the least).  I mean, it’s being blown out of proportion, but it is a legit scandal.  Pureval isn’t the victim of a witchhunt, he gave Chabot a club to whack him over the head with.  And folks aren’t just gonna clear a path for him in the primary when that heavily Democratic HamCo seat gets created.

I don’t think Pureval has much of a future in statewide or congressional politics anymore (and even if he did, he wasn’t going to beat Klein even before he his  congressional bid), barring a wave save on Election Day.  He could definitely have a solid career in HamCo Democratic politics if he keeps his head down and does solid work for the rest of his term as CoC.  Pureval isn’t a rising star anymore and he also hasn’t run a terribly impressive campaign despite a strong start and a perfect political environment.

[Ohioguy29]

Ohio Elections Commission hearing was today, charges against Aftab were DISMISSED. He did have to pay a $100 fine because of a clerical error (money to pay for a photographer was paid from the wrong account.) Definitely not the results COAST and Chabot wanted though.

https://twitter.com/Enquirer/status/1058112696879587328

If he loses on Tuesday, he needs to run a fierce, no-holds barred, total revenge campaign against Chabot in 2020.

Absolutely not. He needs to go back to the CoC's office and sit quiet for another term and a half.

Agreed. At the very least he needs to wait until after redistricting. He'd have no issue winning in 2022 if Trump wins a second term, otherwise 2024 would be his best shot. Honestly he might be able to win in 2022 even with a Democrat holding the presidency if the new district is favorable enough, but why push it?

He could also run for mayor or county prosecutor if he's interested. But those aren't the best paths to statewide office so he'll probably pass on those. Too bad, I hate Sittenfeld and Deters.

He’d have competition with Zach Klein down the line, but if Aftab ran for County Prosecutor it wuld be a decent launchig pad to Attorney General.

As long as he stays out of the muck that is city politics. There's no way to come out of that looking good in Cincinnati.

I don't see Klein beating Aftab in a primary. Maybe that's my Cincinnati bias but that's how I see it.

Klein would steamroll Pureval; it wouldn’t even be close.  Tbh, Pureval is damaged goods at this point.  He blew a very winnable race by making some pretty dumb mistakes.  The idea that his comeback path (if he has one) will run through a law enforcement office even though part of how he blew the race was by breaking the law strikes me as problematic (to say the least).  I mean, it’s being blown out of proportion, but it is a legit scandal.  Pureval isn’t the victim of a witchhunt, he gave Chabot a club to whack him over the head with.  And folks aren’t just gonna clear a path for him in the primary when that heavily Democratic HamCo seat gets created.

I don’t think Pureval has much of a future in statewide or congressional politics anymore (and even if he did, he wasn’t going to beat Klein even before he his  congressional bid), barring a wave save on Election Day.  He could definitely have a solid career in HamCo Democratic politics if he keeps his head down and does solid work for the rest of his term as CoC.  Pureval isn’t a rising star anymore and he also hasn’t run a terribly impressive campaign despite a strong start and a perfect political environment.

I doubt he goes the AG path anyway, personally. Imo he should just run for reelection for clerk of courts in 2020. How much of a political future he has depends on the outcome of this whole Sarah Topy debacle. As far as the campaign finance stuff, nobody is going to give a damn about any of it five years from now, or even one year from now. It's possible he could have a career in statewide politics if he keeps his head down for a while, but even if that's not an option he definitely could easily win this congressional district in 2022. Folks will not necessarily clear a path for him in the primary, but he's the most popular Democrat in Hamilton County by far. He has a cultlike following and his scandals haven't changed that. Sittenfeld would be his only real competition and he's probably gonna run for mayor instead. Even if he runs, I legit think Aftab would win the primary still. I think Aftab could kill someone and still win a Democratic primary here.

Imo the only way he gets to statewide office is by getting to Congress though and proving himself over the next couple years; the rest of Ohio will understandably be more skeptical, charismatic as he may be. So it's a ways off if it happens at all. Hopefully he's learned from his blunders this time around. I still like him but I am irritated with him for messing this up. How did he go from beating a Winkler to this mess? Like I said before, don't make your best friend from college your campaign manager.