Ohio Megathread

[KingSweden]

Ken Harbaugh has released his first TV ad for the general and it is fantastic. Haters are whining about "toxic masculinity" or some crap. Whatever, he isn't running to win over your feminist book club, he's running to win in Trump country.

I for one would love to see an ad designed exclusively to win over feminist book clubs

[IceSpear]

Ken Harbaugh has released his first TV ad for the general and it is fantastic. Haters are whining about "toxic masculinity" or some crap. Whatever, he isn't running to win over your feminist book club, he's running to win in Trump country.

Just a tad over the top, don't you think? Seems like it's trying a bit too hard, especially with that narrator. Jason Kander's toxic masculinity ad is more my style.

This ad will definitely make him Atlas's favorite new #populist though, lol. Move over Ojeda!

[IceSpear]

Ken Harbaugh has released his first TV ad for the general and it is fantastic. Haters are whining about "toxic masculinity" or some crap. Whatever, he isn't running to win over your feminist book club, he's running to win in Trump country.

I for one would love to see an ad designed exclusively to win over feminist book clubs

https://youtu.be/YttscNOoAjA

[Ohioguy29]

Ken Harbaugh has released his first TV ad for the general and it is fantastic. Haters are whining about "toxic masculinity" or some crap. Whatever, he isn't running to win over your feminist book club, he's running to win in Trump country.

Just a tad over the top, don't you think? Seems like it's trying a bit too hard, especially with that narrator. Jason Kander's toxic masculinity ad is more my style.

This ad will definitely make him Atlas's favorite new #populist though, lol. Move over Ojeda!

Trump is a bit over the top too and he won by 30 points here. I don't think there's any need to tone things down, it seems to be what people here like. I know when I saw the original video of him doing the truck thing I heard a couple people in the audience going like "he has my vote!"

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Ken Harbaugh has released his first TV ad for the general and it is fantastic. Haters are whining about "toxic masculinity" or some crap. Whatever, he isn't running to win over your feminist book club, he's running to win in Trump country.

What the hell was that illogical Xtreme sports and stuff? Doesn't even matter, he's gonna lose big anyways.

[Ohioguy29]

CLF released another attack ad. This one is unlisted on youtube and they didn't tweet about it. Maybe they're wary of backlash this time around. Blah blah, Pelosi, open borders, terrorism. They're straight up citing tweets here. The "open borders" tweet was Aftab saying he supports the dreamers, which is no secret. I didn't go back far enough on his feed to see what screening process he opposes which would prevent terrorism, but I'm guessing it's the Muslim ban.

[KingSweden]

Ken Harbaugh has released his first TV ad for the general and it is fantastic. Haters are whining about "toxic masculinity" or some crap. Whatever, he isn't running to win over your feminist book club, he's running to win in Trump country.

I for one would love to see an ad designed exclusively to win over feminist book clubs

https://youtu.be/YttscNOoAjA

Thanks for ruining that song for me

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ken Harbaugh has released his first TV ad for the general and it is fantastic. Haters are whining about "toxic masculinity" or some crap. Whatever, he isn't running to win over your feminist book club, he's running to win in Trump country.

I for one would love to see an ad designed exclusively to win over feminist book clubs

^^^

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That's a corny ad but actually being offended by it?

[BuckeyeNut]

I like Ken a lot, but that ad does not jive with me. I get what he’s doing, it’s a terrible district to be running in, and he’s done an amazing job, so the Twitter haters from New York — and they are from New York — can go eff off.

It’s just that the ad does not really feel authentic. Ken is definitely a tough guy, and that’s clear to anyone who knows his story, but you don’t get a sense of machismo from him talking to him in person. The original stunt was cool, and running against Pelosi is fine, but he should have just re-cut his introductory video which is MUCH better.

[Ohioguy29]

I like Ken a lot, but that ad it does not jive with me. I get what he’s doing, it’s a terrible district to be running in, and he’s done an amazing job, so the Twitter haters from New York — and they are from New York — can go eff off.

It’s just that the ad does not really feel authentic. Ken is definitely a tough guy, and that’s clear to anyone who knows his story, but you don’t get a sense of machismo from him taking to him in person. The original stunt was cool, and running against Pelosi is fine, but he should have just re-cut his introductory video which is MUCH better.

This is a criticism I can get, and a fine one to make (same goes for others in this thread who have a similar criticism.) I certainly wouldn't want this to be his whole campaign. I think I just find the fact that it's a bit different than a typical political ad refreshing. I've been watching way too many ads lately and they get a bit repetitive, even the good ones.

[KingSweden]

So I’ve watched the ad now and sprouted a bunch of chest hair spontaneously

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Suburban areas will trend D here b/c of the racist posting. Obviously trump's base wont care but this is the kind of district that people will get turned off by things such as this.

[Ohioguy29]

Suburban areas will trend D here b/c of the racist posting. Obviously trump's base wont care but this is the kind of district that people will get turned off by things such as this.

If you think suburbanites in OH-1 are turned off by racism, you don't know this area. But luckily for Aftab, people's racism here is focused on black people; I don't think these ads will help the GOP all that much even with racist white suburbanites. And I do think these ads will energize Indian-Americans in Mason and West Chester (a small portion of the population, but it could make a difference in a close race.) It also seems to be energizing black people in Cincinnati to some degree; there isn't any real bond between the black community and the Indian community, but black people know some racist bullsh**t when they see it and it pisses them off. Or at least that's what I've been seeing in response to these ads. In a district where 22% of voting age adults are black, turnout is vital.

Quite honestly though, I think if Aftab were black and they were running racist ads about that, it would work.

[TJ in Oregon]

Ken Harbaugh's ad was the only good one in this thread: it introduced him and gave his biography in a way that was appealing. Sure it wasn't informative about policy, but none really are, and this is going to do a whole lot more to sell himself to the voters than some ridiculous pinocchio cartoon.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

If you think suburbanites in OH-1 are turned off by racism, you don't know this area.

Suburban Cincinnati has some of the worst racists in America - and some of the worst outright classism. Luckily, the central cities can be enough to outvote it, depending on the geographic area.

[Ohioguy29]

If you think suburbanites in OH-1 are turned off by racism, you don't know this area.

Suburban Cincinnati has some of the worst racists in America - and some of the worst outright classism. Luckily, the central cities can be enough to outvote it, depending on the geographic area.

Ah, someone who's spent time in this area. Were we surprised that one of the violent Charlottesville marchers was from Mason? No, we were not.

Honestly, there's also a lot of racist and classist people in Cincinnati itself, but also luckily a lot of black people and working class people (plus the jerks and snobs of Cincinnati are usually Democrats anyway.) OH-1 contains 4/5 of Cincinnati, and it's largely up to city to save us. Although Aftab is making some surprising inroads into Warren County; I think it's possible he might crack 40% of the vote there (my estimate is he needs 35% there to win.) This man has insane appeal, I've seen some MAGA-y people who support him. I think these racist ads are an attempt to at least win those voters back. We'll see how it goes.

[Ohioguy29]

Ken Harbaugh's ad was the only good one in this thread: it introduced him and gave his biography in a way that was appealing. Sure it wasn't informative about policy, but none really are, and this is going to do a whole lot more to sell himself to the voters than some ridiculous pinocchio cartoon.

I recommend you check out Ken Harbaugh's intro video which he released during the primary. Ken Harbaugh is consistently great. I'm sure he'll continue to release great material as his campaign continues.

Of course, it's not like it hard to make better ads than Steve Chabot. This one always makes me laugh. And in this one, they try to attack him for firing patronage employees. My friend who canvasses for Aftab was like, "uh, that's something I usually cite as a positive."

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Why is Steve Chabot running ads that are calling attention to the fact that Aftab is attractive?

[BuckeyeNut]

Of course, it's not like it hard to make better ads than Steve Chabot. This one always makes me laugh. And in this one, they try to attack him for firing patronage employees. My friend who canvasses for Aftab was like, "uh, that's something I usually cite as a positive."

Jesus, he's scared.

[Progressive Pessimist]

So I’ve watched the ad now and sprouted a bunch of chest hair spontaneously

[Ohioguy29]

Why is Steve Chabot running ads that are calling attention to the fact that Aftab is attractive?

There just aren't any pictures of Aftab where he doesn't look attractive. I'm sure the GOP looked hard, but they simply don't exist.

[Ohioguy29]

Of course, it's not like it hard to make better ads than Steve Chabot. This one always makes me laugh. And in this one, they try to attack him for firing patronage employees. My friend who canvasses for Aftab was like, "uh, that's something I usually cite as a positive."

Jesus, he's scared.

He damn well should be. Unlike smarter congressmen like Dave Joyce, Chabot has made no attempt to moderate or appeal to people in this district even though he knew a wave election was coming up, and now he's paying the price for it. His west side advantage has eroded (as far as I can tell no one there has any loyalty to him anymore), and Aftab is making shocking inroads even in Warren County. Aftab noticed that Chabot wasn't reaching out to these areas (or anywhere) and he took advantage of that.

My friend who predicted Trump would win thinks Chabot has no chance at this point. I wouldn't go that far, but I definitely think Aftab is favored. And while I think Chabot's current strategy is ineffective, I can't actually think of any way he could change the tide. There's nothing much to attack Aftab on, and he hasn't accomplished anything in quite a while so he can't run on that. His strategy for winning would've been to be a better congressman and to have started taking this campaign seriously from the start. Aftab started campaigning on the west side before he did and now it's too late to catch up. Chabot's years of laziness and lack of availability to constituents have caught up to him.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Of course, it's not like it hard to make better ads than Steve Chabot. This one always makes me laugh. And in this one, they try to attack him for firing patronage employees. My friend who canvasses for Aftab was like, "uh, that's something I usually cite as a positive."

Jesus, he's scared.

He damn well should be. Unlike smarter congressmen like Dave Joyce, Chabot has made no attempt to moderate or appeal to people in this district even though he knew a wave election was coming up, and now he's paying the price for it. His west side advantage has eroded (as far as I can tell no one there has any loyalty to him anymore), and Aftab is making shocking inroads even in Warren County. Aftab noticed that Chabot wasn't reaching out to these areas (or anywhere) and he took advantage of that.

My friend who predicted Trump would win thinks Chabot has no chance at this point. I wouldn't go that far, but I definitely think Aftab is favored. And while I think Chabot's current strategy is ineffective, I can't actually think of any way he could change the tide. There's nothing much to attack Aftab on, and he hasn't accomplished anything in quite a while so he can't run on that. His strategy for winning would've been to be a better congressman and to have started taking this campaign seriously from the start. Aftab started campaigning on the west side before he did and now it's too late to catch up. Chabot's years of laziness and lack of availability to constituents have caught up to him.

I still think Chabot wins by 4, and his best chance to victory is to just go full Maga at this point. It's too late to moderate or do much else, he is clearly is still on the Trump Train and did not get off at any stopping point, and they are all past now. So his best chance is to just go full throttle Maga like crazy and just shovel the coal as fast as he can into the Trump Train engine and hope it gets him past the finish line via high amounts of Trumpkin turnout. I know, bad strategy. But it's really the best of all his bad options he has now. What else could he do that would give him a better chance?

[Ohioguy29]

Hamilton County GOP twitter update: right now they're taking a break from dumb tweets about Aftab to harass a school board member. There's at least 10 tweets about him or in response to him all in the course of a couple days, but this one was the highlight for me.

https://twitter.com/HamCoGOP/status/1038641320288497669

Oh, and they also retweeted Sebastian Gorka. I'm starting to wonder who the hell is in charge of their twitter account nowadays. Is it crazy Andrew Pappas? It didn't use to be like this at all and I don't think this is the kinda image our local GOP is trying to project. They usually go for the "fiscal responsibility" route; for heaven's sake, their vice chair is a black woman. Like don't get me wrong, many local Republicans are racist (ex. Joe Deters), but they like to be subtle. Alex Triantifilou needs to fire whoever's doing their twitter right now.