If Republicans win the PV but lose the EC...
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Process (Moderator: muon2)
  If Republicans win the PV but lose the EC...
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Author Topic: If Republicans win the PV but lose the EC...  (Read 7495 times)
President Phil Scott
marco.rem451
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« Reply #25 on: November 27, 2018, 02:35:19 PM »
« edited: November 27, 2018, 06:03:55 PM by President Phil Scott »

Pretty much the only time this was a realistic possibility in recent memory was 2004. Kerry might well have won Ohio and the EV while losing the PV.

Assuming an uniform swing, didn't the EC mathematically favor Obama in both his runs?

It did. Favored GOP (decisively) in '00, Dems in '04 and '12, GOP decisively in '16 again, and ambiguous in '08 due to relative closeness in disparity between the parties + large 7-point overall Obama margin, so it's not safe to assume uniform in 08. But probably Dem that year too, he performed about as expected in the EC but fell short of his national polling by a bit.

P.S. by decisively i don't mean a big difference, just that it "changed" the winner, of the election
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mgop
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« Reply #26 on: November 27, 2018, 03:29:08 PM »

I heard someone on YouTube stating that if Trump had won the popular vote in 2016 while losing the electoral college, his supporters would have rioted and Republicans would have successfully pushed to abolish the EC.

Do you think this line of speculation would have been accurate?

[FYI: FiveThirtyEight's final forecast on Election Day 2016 indicated that there was a 0.5% chance of Trump losing the EC while winning the PV, so this scenario is certainly not out of the question, however far-fetched it may seem.]

i remember in 2012. there was talk that romney could win pv and lose ec, and every liberal talking head said "so what, that's the rules". and they are right that's the rules and united states are federation, maybe ec will be changed but never abolished!
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #27 on: November 27, 2018, 03:54:14 PM »

Pretty much the only time this was a realistic possibility in recent memory was 2004. Kerry might well have won Ohio and the EV while losing the PV.

Assuming an uniform swing, didn't the EC mathematically favor Obama in both his runs?

It did. Favored GOP (decisively) in '00, Dems in '04 and '12, GOP decisively in '16 again, and ambiguous in '08 due to relative closeness in disparity between the parties + large 7-point overall Obama margin, so it's not safe to assume uniform in 08. But probably Dem that year too, he performed about as expected in the EC but fell short of his national polling by a bit.
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Annatar
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« Reply #28 on: November 27, 2018, 07:41:44 PM »

I think the EC still stays, on a somewhat related note its somewhat funny that from 1996 to 2016 there have been 6 elections, in 4 of them the Dems had the EC advantage, the tipping point state was to the left of the PV ad in none of them, 1996, 2004, 2008, 2012 did it matter, but in the 2 elections where the GOP had the EC advantage, 2000 and 2016 it proved decisive.
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