pbrower2a
Atlas Star
Posts: 26,859
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« on: September 05, 2018, 08:00:06 AM » |
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Incumbency is an advantage unless (1900 on, implying also chances of an incumbent running for a third term for which he is Constitutionally eligible )
1. one's party splinters (1912)
2. one's grand dream of foreign policy implodes (1920)
3. the economy collapses (1932)
4. a war goes badly (1952, 1968)
5. one is an incompetent campaigner for President (1976)
6. a gross embarrassment happens in foreign policy (1980)
7. one has no idea of what to do in a Second Term (1992)
I see multiple reasons for Donald Trump to lose a re-election bid: extremism, corruption, abuse of power, and perhaps a trade war that goes badly.
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