Did It Help Sinema In Maricopa That She Was From There And McSally Was Not?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Protracted argument my dad I have been having for months over this. I think it substantially helped Sinema, like a 5 out of 10, 0 being not important at all and 10 being key to victory. He puts at at like a 1.

[pppolitics]

The question is misleading.

The question asks if being from Maricopa County helps Sinema performs better in that county.

Later, you talk about that being the key to her victory in a statewide race.

Sinema being from Maricopa County probably helps her in Maricopa County, but nationwide, it's probably cancelled by McSally advantage in Pima County.

So, is the poll about whether Sinema being from Maricopa County helps her in THAT county OR whether Sinema being from Maricopa County helps her overall (statewide)?

[pppolitics]

Well, Sinema obviously did better in Maricopa County because she's from there.

That said, McSally is from Pima County, which is Democratic county so she's able to cut into Sinema's lead there.

Overall, it's probably a wash.

[lfromnj]

Also, the question is misleading.

The question asks if being from Maricopa County helps Sinema performs better in that county.

Later, you talk about that being the key to her victory in a statewide race.

Sinema being from Maricopa County probably helps her in Maricopa County, but nationwide, it's probably cancelled by McSally advantage in Pima County.

So, is the poll about whether Sinema being from Maricopa County helps her in that county OR whether Sinema being from Maricopa County helps statewide overall?

ah because constantly being on the media market for the past 6 years in a very large compared to a medium sized county is completely equal. Yeah I get atlas has a Mcsally hate for being a horrible candidate when in reality she was just an average to a bit above. Its clear being from Tucson isn't as helpful as being from the county where the majority of people live.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Well I was thinking both since Maricopa is well over 50% of the state.

[pppolitics]

ah because constantly being on the media market for the past 6 years in a very large compared to a medium sized county is completely equal. Yeah I get atlas has a Mcsally hate for being a horrible candidate when in reality she was just an average to a bit above. Its clear being from Tucson isn't as helpful as being from the county where the majority of people live.

Well I was thinking both since Maricopa is well over 50% of the state.

Sinema won statewide by 55900 votes.

Sinema won Pima County by 60692 votes

No Pima County = No Sen. Sinema

Oh wait, guess who is from Pima County? (Hint: It's McSally)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

ah because constantly being on the media market for the past 6 years in a very large compared to a medium sized county is completely equal. Yeah I get atlas has a Mcsally hate for being a horrible candidate when in reality she was just an average to a bit above. Its clear being from Tucson isn't as helpful as being from the county where the majority of people live.

Well I was thinking both since Maricopa is well over 50% of the state.

Sinema won statewide by 55900 votes.

Sinema won Pima County by 60692 votes

No Pima County = No Sen. Sinema

Oh wait, guess who is from Pima County? (Hint: It's McSally)

Pima is already blue and a fraction of the size of Maricopa. But McSally did do alright in Pima, she stalled out any gains from HRC (only like 2 points or less) and did better than Marquez-Peterson. It just was not enough with Pima being small compared to Maricopa and relatively unremarkable since it was already a blue county. Maricopa however is much larger and light red, but Sinema significantly pushed against that dna, and likewise she won Maricopa by slightly over 60k votes as well, so no Maricopa=no Sen. Sinema too. I won’t say the last line since it’s unnecessary and don’t feel the need to be a jerk today.

[pppolitics]

ah because constantly being on the media market for the past 6 years in a very large compared to a medium sized county is completely equal. Yeah I get atlas has a Mcsally hate for being a horrible candidate when in reality she was just an average to a bit above. Its clear being from Tucson isn't as helpful as being from the county where the majority of people live.

Well I was thinking both since Maricopa is well over 50% of the state.

Sinema won statewide by 55900 votes.

Sinema won Pima County by 60692 votes

No Pima County = No Sen. Sinema

Oh wait, guess who is from Pima County? (Hint: It's McSally)

Pima is already blue and a fraction of the size of Maricopa. But McSally did do alright in Pima, she stalled out any gains from HRC (only like 2 points or less) and did better than Marquez-Peterson. It just was not enough with Pima being small compared to Maricopa and relatively unremarkable since it was already a blue county. Maricopa however is much larger and light red, but Sinema significantly pushed against that dna, and likewise she won Maricopa by slightly over 60k votes as well, so no Maricopa=no Sen. Sinema too. I won’t say the last line since it’s unnecessary and don’t feel the need to be a jerk today.

You are just making excuses to justify McSally's lost.

Sinema's district only cover a fraction of Maricopa County

In fact, there are more registered voters in McSally's district than there are in Sinema's district.

[Tintrlvr]

I gave her a 3. I think it's plausible that it helped a bit. The fact that she only represented part of the county is a bit of red herring - especially in places like Arizona, politicians do tend to have name recognition more on a metro regional basis than strictly on the basis of district lines. All else equal (e.g., in a race between two candidates of the same party with basically the same platform, etc.), the candidate from Phoenix beats the candidate from Tucson statewide every time, so it's not implausible that Sinema gained half a percent to a percent statewide from her regional advantage. That wouldn't actually make a difference in the overall result, but it could have if the overall result were closer.

[pppolitics]

I gave her a 3. I think it's plausible that it helped a bit. The fact that she only represented part of the county is a bit of red herring - especially in places like Arizona, politicians do tend to have name recognition more on a metro regional basis than strictly on the basis of district lines. All else equal (e.g., in a race between two candidates of the same party with basically the same platform, etc.), the candidate from Phoenix beats the candidate from Tucson statewide every time, so it's not implausible that Sinema gained half a percent to a percent statewide from her regional advantage. That wouldn't actually make a difference in the overall result, but it could have if the overall result were closer.

I think the entire argument sucks.

Maybe Sinema started out with a higher name recognition than McSally, but the entire state has been inundated with so many ads that pretty much everyone knows who Sinema and McSally are.

This isn't an obscure race where the winner was determined by name recognition.