Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 25, 2019, 07:15:15 am
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  MO-Marist: McCaskill +4 with third parties, tied head-to-head
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: MO-Marist: McCaskill +4 with third parties, tied head-to-head  (Read 1246 times)
Senator ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,865
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: September 04, 2018, 05:58:02 am »

McCaskill 44
Hawley 40
Campbell (L) 5
Crain (G) 3

Head-to-head:
McCaskill 47
Hawley 47

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/03/claire-mccaskill-tied-with-josh-hawley-nbc-marist-poll.html
Logged
elastic jimmie
jamespol
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,390


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: September 04, 2018, 06:06:22 am »

toss up tilt R.

lmao a year ago I was ridiculed for stating this race was a toss up when everyone had Claire doa.

Now I am in a minority in believing Hawley probably wins.

https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2018/pred.php?action=statepred&fips=29&class=1

lmao
Logged
Councilor Zaybay
Zaybay
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,176
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: September 04, 2018, 06:07:57 am »
« Edited: September 04, 2018, 06:47:47 am by Zaybay »

The third parties will likely not have as large of a percentage, but they still will take some votes, and that should hurt Hawley here. It does look like McCaskill is favoured here. Tilt D.
Logged
Clinton King Mills Congressional Dem voter for Trump
Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,788
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.00, S: -4.00

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: September 04, 2018, 06:47:14 am »

Pretty much a tossup, but gun to my head, McCaskill wins.
Logged
Hindsight is 2020
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,668
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: September 04, 2018, 06:52:40 am »

So toss up with a slight tilt to McCaskill
Logged
АndriуValeriovich
andjey
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,750
Ukraine
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: September 04, 2018, 07:01:31 am »

Tossup/Tilt D
Logged
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,008
Venezuela


Political Matrix
E: 3.29, S: -1.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: September 04, 2018, 08:00:50 am »

The disparity is a bit strange. Oh well.
Logged
KingSweden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,285
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: September 04, 2018, 09:18:19 am »

So toss up with a slight tilt to McCaskill
Logged
Bagel23
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,605
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: September 04, 2018, 09:20:56 am »

Come on Claire!!
Logged
Polarized MT Treasurer
IndyRep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16,406
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: September 04, 2018, 09:36:42 am »

This forum is going to be an absolute mess when this race is called, lol. Anyway, some other numbers:

Trump approval: 44/46 (-2)
McCaskill favorability: 41/49 (-8)
Hawley favorability: 36/36
House vote? 43R, 42D
Logged
elastic jimmie
jamespol
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,390


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: September 04, 2018, 10:00:11 am »

This forum is going to be an absolute mess when this race is called, lol. Anyway, some other numbers:

Trump approval: 44/46 (-2)
McCaskill favorability: 41/49 (-8)
Hawley favorability: 36/36
House vote? 43R, 42D

See mo02 will be competitive!
Logged
elastic jimmie
jamespol
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,390


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: September 04, 2018, 10:12:58 am »

Wish there were Auditor numbers, though that race hasnít really gotten underway. Iím sure not many people know yet that McDowell is a fraud

Galloway should win by 5 to 7.. but if environment improves for GOP significantly it is feasible that Hawley could win large enough and the Senate race dominate the air waves enough to pull that creepy witch across the finish line.

Jesus.. McDowell even looks creepy

Img
Logged
Senate/SCOTUS/EC Delenda Est 👁
The Impartial Spectator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,816


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: September 04, 2018, 10:19:37 am »

Queen Claire is in a dangerous spot, but in the end she can't lose (hopefully...)

I am a bit nervous about this one though. Also, imagine the blanching if it were a Hillary midterm and if the Reps had a better candidate like Wagner!
Logged
JG
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 867


P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: September 04, 2018, 10:33:41 am »

Queen Claire is in a dangerous spot, but in the end she can't lose (hopefully...)

I am a bit nervous about this one though. Also, imagine the blanching if it were a Hillary midterm and if the Reps had a better candidate like Wagner!

I think Claire would probably have retired.
Logged
CapoteMonster
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 483
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.49, S: -2.61

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: September 04, 2018, 11:40:54 am »

The crosstabs show Hawley winning 18-29 year olds by 30 in a head-to head. Any explanation for that?
Logged
Senate/SCOTUS/EC Delenda Est 👁
The Impartial Spectator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,816


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: September 04, 2018, 12:07:18 pm »

The crosstabs show Hawley winning 18-29 year olds by 30 in a head-to head. Any explanation for that?


It is normal for crosstabs to be wrong/have high margin of error, especially for groups that are hard to get a sample for such as young voters.
Logged
Mondale
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,273
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: September 04, 2018, 12:10:03 pm »

Hawley will not win
Logged
For Trump everything, for immigrants the law
xingkerui
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16,845
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: September 04, 2018, 01:55:25 pm »

Toss-Up, as it always has been. Imagine telling this forum a year ago that both Nelson and McCaskill would be dead even with their opponents in the polls, lol.
Logged
TarHeelDem
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,176
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: September 04, 2018, 02:20:03 pm »

Beautiful poll! I am confident that on November 6th the women of Missouri will see McCaskill through to victory.
Logged
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30,737
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -5.70

P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: September 04, 2018, 05:33:39 pm »

Here's How Claire McCaskill Is Still DOA:
Logged
Invisible Obama
DrScholl
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,418
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: September 04, 2018, 05:48:35 pm »

There were more than 300k more votes in the Democratic primary this year than in the 2010 and 2012. There were even more votes than in 2006 when the Dem primary vote narrowly surpassed the GOP one. That shows a good bit of Democratic energy. Plus, McCaskill is a great campaigner in rural areas and will undoubtedly pick up some buyer's remorse Trump voters.
Logged
Progressive Pessimist
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,814
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: September 04, 2018, 08:06:26 pm »

Tossup remains tossup.
Logged
Badger
badger
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 22,652
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: September 05, 2018, 12:20:15 am »

Pretty much a tossup, but gun to my head, McCaskill wins.
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC