MS-Atlantic Media Research-Espy +1 over Hyde-Smith in 3-way primary (not runoff)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Atlantic Media Research for Courageous Conservatives PAC, Aug. 22-30, 304 likely voters

Mike Espy 28
Cindy Hyde-Smith 27
Chris McDaniel 18

[IceSpear]

[UncleSam]

Atlantic Media Research for Courageous Conservatives PAC, Aug. 22-30, 304 likely voters

Mike Espy 28
Cindy Hyde-Smith 27
Chris McDaniel 18

The more important number is Hyde Smith +9 over McDaniel

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Great news

[IceSpear]

Atlantic Media Research for Courageous Conservatives PAC, Aug. 22-30, 304 likely voters

Mike Espy 28
Cindy Hyde-Smith 27
Chris McDaniel 18

The more important number is Hyde Smith +9 over McDaniel

There is no important number in this poll. It has so many issues I'd barely know where to start.

[7,052,770]

The title of this thread should be clarified to state that this is a 3-way matchup with McDaniel, not a head-to-head runoff.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

The title of this thread should be clarified to state that this is a 3-way matchup with McDaniel, not a head-to-head runoff.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The title of this thread should be clarified to state that this is a 3-way matchup with McDaniel, not a head-to-head runoff.

Good idea.  I've updated the title.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The title of this thread should be clarified to state that this is a 3-way matchup with McDaniel, not a head-to-head runoff.

[IceSpear]

I didn't realize that Trump had endorsed Hyde-Smith. I guess you can go ahead and stick that final nail in McDaniel's coffin.

[Xing]

You're right, we should be more environmentally friendly and stop throwing bad polls in the trash (assuming they're recyclable.)

[Arkansas Yankee]

You folks do understand that if the Democrats win big on 11/6, there is no way you come close to beating Hyde-Smith in the run off.  Your only slight chance is if the Democrats do not do well on 11/6. In that case the chance is not great either.

But take your pick for 11/6.

[GeorgiaModerate]

You folks do understand that if the Democrats win big on 11/6, there is no way you come close to beating Hyde-Smith in the run off.  Your only slight chance is if the Democrats do not do well on 11/6. In that case the chance is not great either.

But take your pick for 11/6.

I think another way to say this is that this race will not be the Democrats' 51st seat.

[UncleSam]

You folks do understand that if the Democrats win big on 11/6, there is no way you come close to beating Hyde-Smith in the run off.  Your only slight chance is if the Democrats do not do well on 11/6. In that case the chance is not great either.

But take your pick for 11/6.

I think another way to say this is that this race will not be the Democrats' 51st seat.

I actually think the opposite. I could well see Dem turnout spiking if it is over control of the senate. If this is some random race that decides whether Rs have 52 or 53 seats, however, then no way anyone will care.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Atlantic Media Research for Courageous Conservatives PAC, Aug. 22-30, 304 likely voters

Mike Espy 28
Cindy Hyde-Smith 27
Chris McDaniel 18

The more important number is Hyde Smith +9 over McDaniel

I am stunned that such a deplorable state like MS is voting against McDaniel.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

You folks do understand that if the Democrats win big on 11/6, there is no way you come close to beating Hyde-Smith in the run off.  Your only slight chance is if the Democrats do not do well on 11/6. In that case the chance is not great either.

But take your pick for 11/6.

Yes captain obvious, literally everyone knows the Republicans are keeping this seat ok.

[ON Progressive]

You folks do understand that if the Democrats win big on 11/6, there is no way you come close to beating Hyde-Smith in the run off.  Your only slight chance is if the Democrats do not do well on 11/6. In that case the chance is not great either.

But take your pick for 11/6.

I think another way to say this is that this race will not be the Democrats' 51st seat.

I actually think the opposite. I could well see Dem turnout spiking if it is over control of the senate. If this is some random race that decides whether Rs have 52 or 53 seats, however, then no way anyone will care.

That would also spike Republican turnout though, that's the issue. To win in MS, you can't just have really high Dem turnout. You need depressed Republican turnout, which won't happen if this is Seat 51. Not that Democrats are winning this seat either way.

Also, this poll is:

[Arkansas Yankee]

You folks do understand that if the Democrats win big on 11/6, there is no way you come close to beating Hyde-Smith in the run off.  Your only slight chance is if the Democrats do not do well on 11/6. In that case the chance is not great either.

But take your pick for 11/6.

I think another way to say this is that this race will not be the Democrats' 51st seat.

I actually think the opposite. I could well see Dem turnout spiking if it is over control of the senate. If this is some random race that decides whether Rs have 52 or 53 seats, however, then no way anyone will care.

I think the Georgia Senate runoff in 2008 is some evidence to support my view. 
Here is a recap of that race.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Georgia,_2008

[IceSpear]

You folks do understand that if the Democrats win big on 11/6, there is no way you come close to beating Hyde-Smith in the run off.  Your only slight chance is if the Democrats do not do well on 11/6. In that case the chance is not great either.

But take your pick for 11/6.

I think another way to say this is that this race will not be the Democrats' 51st seat.

I actually think the opposite. I could well see Dem turnout spiking if it is over control of the senate. If this is some random race that decides whether Rs have 52 or 53 seats, however, then no way anyone will care.

I think the Georgia Senate runoff in 2008 is some evidence to support my view. 
Here is a recap of that race.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Georgia,_2008

Republicans got way less primary votes than Democrats but Chambliss still won!

#VoterFraud
#RussiaHacks

[Arkansas Yankee]

You folks do understand that if the Democrats win big on 11/6, there is no way you come close to beating Hyde-Smith in the run off.  Your only slight chance is if the Democrats do not do well on 11/6. In that case the chance is not great either.

But take your pick for 11/6.

I think another way to say this is that this race will not be the Democrats' 51st seat.

I actually think the opposite. I could well see Dem turnout spiking if it is over control of the senate. If this is some random race that decides whether Rs have 52 or 53 seats, however, then no way anyone will care.

I think the Georgia Senate runoff in 2008 is some evidence to support my view. 
Here is a recap of that race.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Georgia,_2008

Republicans got way less primary votes than Democrats but Chambliss still won!

#VoterFraud
#RussiaHacks

Until 2010 I think Republican primaries in the south almost uniformly had fewer voters than the Democrat primaries.  It was not until after Obama’s election that many white southerns finally left the Democrat Party.  It is only since 2010 that a low GOP turnout in a primary was a danger signal in the south.

[7,052,770]

If control of the Senate is on the line, Espy's chances are near 0.

If Republicans have already locked up control, Espy has a shot, but Republicans will be excited and Democrats depressed. Also there will be interest in giving Trump as big of a majority as possible in case there are any more deaths, Alabamas, etc., over the next 2 years.

If Democrats have already locked up control, that would give Espy the best chance because Democrats will be excited while Republicans are depressed. Still not a great chance, plausible enough to keep a close eye on it. Espy's really not that great of a candidate, but neither is CHS really.

[Arkansas Yankee]

If control of the Senate is on the line, Espy's chances are near 0.

If Republicans have already locked up control, Espy has a shot, but Republicans will be excited and Democrats depressed. Also there will be interest in giving Trump as big of a majority as possible in case there are any more deaths, Alabamas, etc., over the next 2 years.

If Democrats have already locked up control, that would give Espy the best chance because Democrats will be excited while Republicans are depressed. Still not a great chance, plausible enough to keep a close eye on it. Espy's really not that great of a candidate, but neither is CHS really.

We will have to agree to disagree.  It is when you have been defeated and should be down and out that people fight the hardest.

It really seems Espy is a pipe dream all around no matter the circumstance.

[IceSpear]

It really seems Espy is a pipe dream all around no matter the circumstance.

+1

[Badger]

It really seems Espy any MS Democrat winning a US Senate seat in 2018 except MAYBE Jim Hood vs. McDaniel is a pipe dream all around no matter the circumstance.

+1

Corrected.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If control of the Senate is on the line, Espy's chances are near 0.

If Republicans have already locked up control, Espy has a shot, but Republicans will be excited and Democrats depressed. Also there will be interest in giving Trump as big of a majority as possible in case there are any more deaths, Alabamas, etc., over the next 2 years.

If Democrats have already locked up control, that would give Espy the best chance because Democrats will be excited while Republicans are depressed. Still not a great chance, plausible enough to keep a close eye on it. Espy's really not that great of a candidate, but neither is CHS really.

We will have to agree to disagree.  It is when you have been defeated and should be down and out that people fight the hardest.

It really seems Espy is a pipe dream all around no matter the circumstance.

Dems will win TX and TN before they win MS. Control won't be in balance