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| | |-+  2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
| | | |-+  FL-Quinnipiac: Gillum +3
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Author Topic: FL-Quinnipiac: Gillum +3  (Read 1880 times)
RogueBeaver
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« on: September 04, 2018, 01:11:45 pm »

50/47. Interesting crosstabs, with DeSantis winning Hispanics and Gillum Indies.
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« Reply #1 on: September 04, 2018, 01:13:34 pm »

Tossup/Tilt D.

I said Gillum was fine, but all the concern trolls were like "DeSantis is going to win BIG! FBI investigation the next Watergate!" LOL at PNM and IceSpear saying he would be destroyed by one random investigation nobody cares about.
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« Reply #2 on: September 04, 2018, 01:13:37 pm »

Great poll! Especially because Gillum is at 50%. Still a toss-up, though, but encouraging.
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« Reply #3 on: September 04, 2018, 01:14:40 pm »

Lol, DeSantis ain’t winning the Latino vote and not by that margin either. Anyways, great to see Gillum ahead.
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« Reply #4 on: September 04, 2018, 01:16:12 pm »

Trump approval at 47/51. He's definitely in a better position in FL than in the rest of the country. For some reason.

Also, lol @ the Atlas meltdown on the day of the primary.
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« Reply #5 on: September 04, 2018, 01:16:17 pm »

Wow, hes even at 50. This is tilt/lean D, especially because of the quality of the pollster.

And if DeSantis is winning the Latino vote in this poll, then I worry for DeSantis.
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« Reply #6 on: September 04, 2018, 01:24:05 pm »

4.3% margin of error though, so keep that in mind.

Base vs. bases Gillum keeps 93% of Democrats & DeSantis keeps 92% of GOP.

And independents are breaking for Gillum 55% to 42%.... DAMN
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« Reply #7 on: September 04, 2018, 01:26:02 pm »

4.3% margin of error though, so keep that in mind.

Base vs. bases Gillum keeps 93% of Democrats & DeSantis keeps 92% of GOP.

And independents are breaking for Gillum 55% to 42%.... DAMN

the crosstabs aren't great though, there's no way DeSantis is winning almost 6/10 Hispanics
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« Reply #8 on: September 04, 2018, 01:27:19 pm »

4.3% margin of error though, so keep that in mind.

Base vs. bases Gillum keeps 93% of Democrats & DeSantis keeps 92% of GOP.

And independents are breaking for Gillum 55% to 42%.... DAMN

the crosstabs aren't great though, there's no way DeSantis is winning almost 6/10 Hispanics
That just increases Gillum's lead.
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« Reply #9 on: September 04, 2018, 01:28:21 pm »


And independents are breaking for Gillum 55% to 42%.... DAMN

NPA voters are sick of the GOP.
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« Reply #10 on: September 04, 2018, 01:29:19 pm »

Tilt D.

November 6 is going to be an amazing night for progressive grassroots in the Deep South.
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« Reply #11 on: September 04, 2018, 01:31:26 pm »

I guess the crosstabs must have some pretty big MoE.
Anyway, I doubt that even Florida Hispanics will vote overwhelmingly a Trump Mini-Me.
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« Reply #12 on: September 04, 2018, 01:31:51 pm »

Just wait until DeSantis and co start to release those attack ads, I am optimistic for Gillum, but the main campaign hasn't started yet
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« Reply #13 on: September 04, 2018, 01:31:55 pm »

DeSantis isn't even leading in QU poll.
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« Reply #14 on: September 04, 2018, 01:33:22 pm »

Desantis is done
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« Reply #15 on: September 04, 2018, 01:37:58 pm »

Surprised that nobody has noted that Gillum is winning white women by 7 points (HRC lost Florida white women by 24).
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« Reply #16 on: September 04, 2018, 01:38:27 pm »

Tilt D. No Senate numbers, or will they be released tomorrow?
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« Reply #17 on: September 04, 2018, 01:41:53 pm »

The crosstabs really don't make sense, DeSantis winning the Hispanic vote (56-43) while winning the white vote by 52-45, this.....seems off, if Gillum wins the Hispanic vote (which he should) then Gillum in actuality might be leading by a LOT more
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« Reply #18 on: September 04, 2018, 01:45:32 pm »

the crosstabs aren't great though, there's no way DeSantis is winning almost 6/10 Hispanics
That just increases Gillum's lead.

I think you may have career options as a Democratic Dean Chambers. Yes, DeSantis is not going to win 6/10 Hispanics, but that is not how one ought to interpret polls, by picking on one or 2 crosstabs one doesn't like and selectively saying "this cross-tab is wrong in favor of x party." Error will generally not be confined to a single crosstab and will normally go in multiple partially offsetting directions.
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« Reply #19 on: September 04, 2018, 01:46:49 pm »

the crosstabs aren't great though, there's no way DeSantis is winning almost 6/10 Hispanics
That just increases Gillum's lead.

I think you may have career options as a Democratic Dean Chambers. Yes, DeSantis is not going to win 6/10 Hispanics, but that is not how one ought to interpret polls, by picking on one or 2 crosstabs one doesn't like and selectively saying "this cross-tab is wrong in favor of x party." Error will generally not be confined to a single crosstab and will normally go in multiple partially offsetting directions.

Agreed. DeSantis only winning Whites by 7 seems off as well.
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« Reply #20 on: September 04, 2018, 01:48:31 pm »

The crosstabs really don't make sense, DeSantis winning the Hispanic vote (56-43) while winning the white vote by 52-45, this.....seems off, if Gillum wins the Hispanic vote (which he should) then Gillum in actuality might be leading by a LOT more

That is not how to interpret polls. Yes, I think it will be a good Dem year and Gillum will more likely than not win, but a priori, it could almost as easily be that the Hispanic crosstab is entirely accurate and the White crosstab is overstating Gillum. This is only a bit less likely statistically because the white population (and hence sample size) is higher than the Hispanic population/sample.
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« Reply #21 on: September 04, 2018, 01:53:07 pm »

Still a Toss-Up, but maybe Atlas was wrong to start congratulating Governor-elect DeSantis the second Gillum won the primary?
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« Reply #22 on: September 04, 2018, 02:10:27 pm »

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« Reply #23 on: September 04, 2018, 02:39:19 pm »

I think that Independents are disgusted by trumpism of DeSantis, and Hispanics carry ethnic resentment to Afroamericans, and that's why they side mostly with GOP in this poll.
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« Reply #24 on: September 04, 2018, 03:26:43 pm »

I think that Independents are disgusted by trumpism of DeSantis, and Hispanics carry ethnic resentment to Afroamericans, and that's why they side mostly with GOP in this poll.
I think Florida Hispanics are misinformed and believe that DeSantis himself is Hispanic.
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