FL-Quinnipiac: Gillum +3

[Zaybay]

Wow, hes even at 50. This is tilt/lean D, especially because of the quality of the pollster.

And if DeSantis is winning the Latino vote in this poll, then I worry for DeSantis.

[Zaybay]

4.3% margin of error though, so keep that in mind.

Base vs. bases Gillum keeps 93% of Democrats & DeSantis keeps 92% of GOP.

And independents are breaking for Gillum 55% to 42%.... DAMN

the crosstabs aren't great though, there's no way DeSantis is winning almost 6/10 Hispanics

That just increases Gillum's lead.

[Zaybay]

Just wait until DeSantis and co start to release those attack ads, I am optimistic for Gillum, but the main campaign hasn't started yet

Whoa, don't go using too much logic here. Didn't you get the memo? The September 4th Quinnipiac poll has replaced the November election, and Gillum is now Gov-elect!

Just like how Scott's polling advantage wasn't all it was cracked up to be due to Nelson's campaign not getting off the ground until now, the same is true of this race. Gillum has yet to be targeted in a negative ad blitz. That'll change very soon. It could move the numbers, or it could not. We'll see.

It’s almost like the public hasn’t heard much about the FBI investigation yet. Imagine that! Gillum has admittedly a pretty good response to that, but if Zaybay and Politician want to count their eggs now, go right ahead. Florida is known for burning Democrats.

The FBI investigation has been known for a long time, and its unlikely to change any minds for one reason. This isnt MA, where an R can win if he runs the right campaign and turns enough heads. This is FL, where its a turnout game.

Most voters are already in their bubble before the election even starts, and there are very little swing voters. There are, of course, chinks in both party's armour, the FLDEM Hispanics and the FLGOP Panhandle Whites, but most of the time, these groups dont budge.

If you want an example of how this game works, look at 2010, and 2014. Scott tried to rely on only R voters, and the Ds were able to hold him to one point. Scott, knowing this, has been targeting Hispanics for a reason, its the D chink. DeSantis, not following Scott's lesson, is doing the exact same thing 2010 Scott did, and there is no R wave year to give him the 1-2% needed for him to win.

And candidates can still win with scandals. Scott defrauded medicare, which is probably a more serious offense than Gillum's. But the base of voters didnt care, and thats what gave Scott the win in the end.

Politics plays differently in different states. While MT, ND, IN, MA, VT, NH, and so on are convincing games, FL is a turnout game.

[Zaybay]

Just wait until DeSantis and co start to release those attack ads, I am optimistic for Gillum, but the main campaign hasn't started yet

Whoa, don't go using too much logic here. Didn't you get the memo? The September 4th Quinnipiac poll has replaced the November election, and Gillum is now Gov-elect!

Just like how Scott's polling advantage wasn't all it was cracked up to be due to Nelson's campaign not getting off the ground until now, the same is true of this race. Gillum has yet to be targeted in a negative ad blitz. That'll change very soon. It could move the numbers, or it could not. We'll see.

This is the correct take.

Its the "candidate quality only affects Ds and national environment isnt a thing" take.

[Zaybay]

Just wait until DeSantis and co start to release those attack ads, I am optimistic for Gillum, but the main campaign hasn't started yet

Whoa, don't go using too much logic here. Didn't you get the memo? The September 4th Quinnipiac poll has replaced the November election, and Gillum is now Gov-elect!

Just like how Scott's polling advantage wasn't all it was cracked up to be due to Nelson's campaign not getting off the ground until now, the same is true of this race. Gillum has yet to be targeted in a negative ad blitz. That'll change very soon. It could move the numbers, or it could not. We'll see.

This is the correct take.

Its the "candidate quality only affects Ds and national environment isnt a thing" take.

Where did I say the political environment didn't matter? If this was a neutral year I'd see Gillum winning as a huge longshot, and if it was a Republican wave he'd be DOA.

And candidate quality clearly matters less for Rs than for Ds. Look at the incumbent president.

Just wait until DeSantis and co start to release those attack ads, I am optimistic for Gillum, but the main campaign hasn't started yet

Whoa, don't go using too much logic here. Didn't you get the memo? The September 4th Quinnipiac poll has replaced the November election, and Gillum is now Gov-elect!

Just like how Scott's polling advantage wasn't all it was cracked up to be due to Nelson's campaign not getting off the ground until now, the same is true of this race. Gillum has yet to be targeted in a negative ad blitz. That'll change very soon. It could move the numbers, or it could not. We'll see.

This is the correct take.

Its the "candidate quality only affects Ds and national environment isnt a thing" take.

Where does it imply anything about the national environment? IceSpear even says the ads could work against him or not, because the scandal is there, and they're going to be used against him. That's not true for DeSantis yet,, but could very well be in the future.

As I said before in a previous post, FL is not the state where scandals and head turning can work. Its a turnout state, and Gillum is clearly doing the right thing. And, if you guys think Gillum is scandal plagued, I would like to hear your opinion on DeSantis, who got into two controversies in the first day.

[Zaybay]

Uh, the only reason Scott didn’t win by double digits like the rest of the statewide ticket in 2010 and 2014 was because he was “scandaled.” My God the hackery  on this forum sometimes

I'm sorry you refuse to accept Gillum has yet to trail in a single poll where the national environment can only get better for Democrats because "MUH GILLUM UNELECTABLE".

Yeah, if anything, Gillum is the one who will improve, not DeSantis. I cant believe that GA, where Abrams is losing, is considered a tossup, but a state where we have a modest lead is also considered a tossup because of....reasons?

[Zaybay]

Uh, the only reason Scott didn’t win by double digits like the rest of the statewide ticket in 2010 and 2014 was because he was “scandaled.” My God the hackery  on this forum sometimes

I'm sorry you refuse to accept Gillum has yet to trail in a single poll where the national environment can only get better for Democrats because "MUH GILLUM UNELECTABLE".

Terri Lynn Land can't possibly do worse than she's doing now because the environment will only get better for Republicans. Safe R.

Lynn Land did not lead in every poll and Gillum is nowhere near that level of candidate. Still butthurt Gwen Graham lost, I see?

I didn't say he was. It was just a counter example.



And yes, I am still butthurt, thanks for asking.

those polls are from January and February, its currently September. This is a pretty bad example