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  FL-Sen: Quinnipiac: Nelson 49, Scott 49
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Author Topic: FL-Sen: Quinnipiac: Nelson 49, Scott 49  (Read 2619 times)
ajc0918
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« on: September 05, 2018, 11:01:17 am »


Nelson (D): 49
Scott (R): 49

https://poll.qu.edu/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=2566
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Mondale
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« Reply #1 on: September 05, 2018, 11:01:47 am »

Spaceman will win
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #2 on: September 05, 2018, 11:07:46 am »

Three ties in a row? Yup, pure Florida Tossup.
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Bagel23
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« Reply #3 on: September 05, 2018, 11:07:52 am »

Umm, this poll is crap, Scott is not winning hispanics by 20 lmao.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #4 on: September 05, 2018, 11:12:01 am »

Umm, this poll is crap, Scott is not winning hispanics by 20 lmao.

Then you have to disqualify most of the polls that have come out of Florida. You are not from Florida so you really don't know what's going on Hispanics here do for the most part generally like Rick Scott because of his handling of the hurricanes and Nelson hasn't been doing much. Well yes Scott is not going to win Hispanics by 20 there's a good shot he could do well with them
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yeah_93
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« Reply #5 on: September 05, 2018, 11:12:56 am »

This is the high quality poll you all wanted.

And the race is still a tossup.
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Bagel23
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« Reply #6 on: September 05, 2018, 11:13:04 am »

Umm, this poll is crap, Scott is not winning hispanics by 20 lmao.

Then you have to disqualify most of the polls that have come out of Florida. You are not from Florida so you really don't know what's going on Hispanics here do for the most part generally like Rick Scott because of his handling of the hurricanes and Nelson hasn't been doing much. Well yes Scott is not going to win Hispanics by 20 there's a good shot he could do well with them

BUT 20 IS RIDICULOUS!! Come on man!
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xingkerui
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« Reply #7 on: September 05, 2018, 11:14:42 am »

Here's how a tie means that this race is not a Toss-Up...

Umm, this poll is crap, Scott is not winning hispanics by 20 lmao.

But he's learning Spanish, which will give him a 47% boost among Latinos who vote based on this. Smiley
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« Reply #8 on: September 05, 2018, 11:14:54 am »

Umm, this poll is crap, Scott is not winning hispanics by 20 lmao.

Then you have to disqualify most of the polls that have come out of Florida. You are not from Florida so you really don't know what's going on Hispanics here do for the most part generally like Rick Scott because of his handling of the hurricanes and Nelson hasn't been doing much. Well yes Scott is not going to win Hispanics by 20 there's a good shot he could do well with them

Yeah, if we’re trying to find fault with the crosstabs, Scott "only" winning Whites by 11 seems off as well.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #9 on: September 05, 2018, 11:15:02 am »

Whoa, thats really close. And the sample was notablely GOP heavy, but I wont draw conclusions from that. Basically, Scott has failed in his one objective, get Nelson below him before Nelson ramps up the ads.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #10 on: September 05, 2018, 11:15:24 am »

Umm, this poll is crap, Scott is not winning hispanics by 20 lmao.

Then you have to disqualify most of the polls that have come out of Florida. You are not from Florida so you really don't know what's going on Hispanics here do for the most part generally like Rick Scott because of his handling of the hurricanes and Nelson hasn't been doing much. Well yes Scott is not going to win Hispanics by 20 there's a good shot he could do well with them

BUT 20 IS RIDICULOUS!! Come on man!

First of all stop using all caps it's annoying. Second they probably oversampled Cubans, which is pretty common among pollsters here. Also the factors on the ground at do suggest that Scott is going to do well with recent Puerto Rican immigrants that have registered to vote which will skew the Hispanic vote more in his favor. All I'm saying is because you see numbers that you don't like doesn't mean that you can instantly throw it away there are a lot of factors going on here that will make this race both interesting and unique.

All I'm saying is this race is going to be a toss-up it's probably going to be one of the races that's going to be the last to be called on Election night.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #11 on: September 05, 2018, 11:15:55 am »

Umm, this poll is crap, Scott is not winning hispanics by 20 lmao.

Then you have to disqualify most of the polls that have come out of Florida. You are not from Florida so you really don't know what's going on Hispanics here do for the most part generally like Rick Scott because of his handling of the hurricanes and Nelson hasn't been doing much. Well yes Scott is not going to win Hispanics by 20 there's a good shot he could do well with them

BUT 20 IS RIDICULOUS!! Come on man!
Well, this pollster did give DeSantis a large majority of Hispanics as well. Perhaps the sample is Cuban heavy.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #12 on: September 05, 2018, 11:17:14 am »

Umm, this poll is crap, Scott is not winning hispanics by 20 lmao.

Then you have to disqualify most of the polls that have come out of Florida. You are not from Florida so you really don't know what's going on Hispanics here do for the most part generally like Rick Scott because of his handling of the hurricanes and Nelson hasn't been doing much. Well yes Scott is not going to win Hispanics by 20 there's a good shot he could do well with them

Yeah, if we’re trying to find fault with the crosstabs, Scott "only" winning Whites by 11 seems off as well.

Nelson Always does well with white voters that's part of his coalition he's not going to win them this time but the fact that he's keeping it close means that he's still at least holding onto a big part of his coalition.
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Bagel23
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« Reply #13 on: September 05, 2018, 11:17:40 am »

Umm, this poll is crap, Scott is not winning hispanics by 20 lmao.

Then you have to disqualify most of the polls that have come out of Florida. You are not from Florida so you really don't know what's going on Hispanics here do for the most part generally like Rick Scott because of his handling of the hurricanes and Nelson hasn't been doing much. Well yes Scott is not going to win Hispanics by 20 there's a good shot he could do well with them

BUT 20 IS RIDICULOUS!! Come on man!

First of all stop using all caps it's annoying. Second they probably oversampled Cubans, which is pretty common among pollsters here. Also the factors on the ground at do suggest that Scott is going to do well with recent Puerto Rican immigrants that have registered to vote which will skew the Hispanic vote more in his favor. All I'm saying is because you see numbers that you don't like doesn't mean that you can instantly throw it away there are a lot of factors going on here that will make this race both interesting and unique.

All I'm saying is this race is going to be a toss-up it's probably going to be one of the races that's going to be the last to be called on Election night.

These aren't numbers that I don't like, they are completely unrealistic. If Scott wins hispanics by 20, it means Nelson was outed as a pedo.
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ajc0918
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« Reply #14 on: September 05, 2018, 11:18:13 am »

As with their senate poll, I think this poll oversamples the GOP by a little.
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Hindsight is 2020
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« Reply #15 on: September 05, 2018, 11:18:26 am »

Boy this is a pure toss up. But Scott does have a problem in that he has spent so much yet he is really only just even with Nelson while Nelson is about to start his ad blitz
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #16 on: September 05, 2018, 11:19:08 am »

Umm, this poll is crap, Scott is not winning hispanics by 20 lmao.

Then you have to disqualify most of the polls that have come out of Florida. You are not from Florida so you really don't know what's going on Hispanics here do for the most part generally like Rick Scott because of his handling of the hurricanes and Nelson hasn't been doing much. Well yes Scott is not going to win Hispanics by 20 there's a good shot he could do well with them

BUT 20 IS RIDICULOUS!! Come on man!

First of all stop using all caps it's annoying. Second they probably oversampled Cubans, which is pretty common among pollsters here. Also the factors on the ground at do suggest that Scott is going to do well with recent Puerto Rican immigrants that have registered to vote which will skew the Hispanic vote more in his favor. All I'm saying is because you see numbers that you don't like doesn't mean that you can instantly throw it away there are a lot of factors going on here that will make this race both interesting and unique.

All I'm saying is this race is going to be a toss-up it's probably going to be one of the races that's going to be the last to be called on Election night.

These aren't numbers that I don't like, they are completely unrealistic. If Scott wins hispanics by 20, it means Nelson was outed as a pedo.

That's a very interesting assumption that you're making. I'm not saying that he's going to win by 20 but I'm saying is he's probably at least going to keep it close
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Zaybay
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« Reply #17 on: September 05, 2018, 11:19:16 am »

Bagel and Shadow, it might just be the sample. Their poll of Gillum has similar results, with DeSantis winning a large amount of Hispanics, while the White vote is unusually close. Dont take one poll as gospel, use the average.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #18 on: September 05, 2018, 11:20:23 am »

As with their senate gubernatorial poll, I think this poll oversamples the GOP by a little.
^ this
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #19 on: September 05, 2018, 11:21:09 am »

Boy this is a pure toss up. But Scott does have a problem in that he has spent so much yet he is really only just even with Nelson while Nelson is about to start his ad blitz

Yeah it's a shame that even though Scott has spent upwards of 50 million dollars he hasn't been able to take a significant lead and that it's always been in the margin of error. Then again I'm not surprised he won both of his Governor's races with less than 50% of the vote in GOP wave years.
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ajc0918
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« Reply #20 on: September 05, 2018, 11:21:26 am »

As with their senate gubernatorial poll, I think this poll oversamples the GOP by a little.
^ this

Oops yeah!
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KingSweden
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« Reply #21 on: September 05, 2018, 11:21:47 am »

This is the high quality poll you all wanted.

And the race is still a tossup.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #22 on: September 05, 2018, 11:21:52 am »

Nelson Always does well with white voters that's part of his coalition he's not going to win them this time but the fact that he's keeping it close means that he's still at least holding onto a big part of his coalition.

Most other polls have shown him winning them by more. Anyway, all I’m saying is that we shouldn’t "unskew" these polls or obsess over the crosstabs, since the overall result (a tie) is completely believable and in line with previous polls.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #23 on: September 05, 2018, 11:23:08 am »

I can confidently predict that, without a doubt, Nelson will retain his senate seat. Moving this seat to lean D.
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yeah_93
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« Reply #24 on: September 05, 2018, 11:26:38 am »

I can confidently predict that, without a doubt, Nelson will retain his senate seat. Moving this seat to lean D.

This level of hackery is peak Atlas.
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