Does Arizona 2018 == Virgina 2006?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Whatchya think?

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Depends on whether or not the 2020 candidate (/party) develops a party infrastructure/brand in the state like OFA did in Virginia in 2008. Even if OFA didn't play nice with coordinated campaigns in the state the work they pulled to bring voters into the party was phenomenal. If we see a replica of that in AZ it's possible; I don't know enough about the state to say where that pool of voters is though (maybe new transplants to Phoenix?)

eta: I misread the poll option as AZ 2020 instead of 2018. My thoughts are for 2020. But maybe the void left by McCain and an anemic Flake not running for reelection is enough to depress Republican enthusiasm to a point where lots consider fleeing the party for good this year

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

Depends on whether or not the 2020 candidate (/party) develops a party infrastructure/brand in the state like OFA did in Virginia in 2008. Even if OFA didn't play nice with coordinated campaigns in the state the work they pulled to bring voters into the party was phenomenal. If we see a replica of that in AZ it's possible; I don't know enough about the state to say where that pool of voters is though (maybe new transplants to Phoenix?)

eta: I misread the poll option as AZ 2020 instead of 2018. My thoughts are for 2020. But maybe the void left by McCain and an anemic Flake not running for reelection is enough to depress Republican enthusiasm to a point where lots consider fleeing the party for good this year

There are a lot of hispanic nonvoters who could be registered.

[Zaybay]

I mean, its very possible, but I see GA being the one to go through a VA transformation, as it has the same factors that lead to VA going Blue(rise in AA turnout, large metro growth, a large growth in party infrastructure).

[OSR stands with Israel]

I mean, its very possible, but I see GA being the one to go through a VA transformation, as it has the same factors that lead to VA going Blue(rise in AA turnout, large metro growth, a large growth in party infrastructure).

One major difference is NoVA unlike Atlanta’s suburbs has way more public sector jobs and due to that I think that favored the dems a lot more

[Person Man]

I mean, its very possible, but I see GA being the one to go through a VA transformation, as it has the same factors that lead to VA going Blue(rise in AA turnout, large metro growth, a large growth in party infrastructure).

One major difference is NoVA unlike Atlanta’s suburbs has way more public sector jobs and due to that I think that favored the dems a lot more

It's not just a public primary dichotomy. Software Engineers for insurance companies are probably far more progressive than the average defense or law enforcement bureaucrat.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hopefully, Gov Garcia appoints pro-choice Cindy McCain and the Democrats recapture it in 2020

[mencken]

It will be much slower since you also have predominantly Republican internal migration of retirees (same with Florida)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

With an open seat in 2020, it will be enough for Dems to capture the state since 1996 for Harris-Ryan team

[5280]

Democrats obsession with Arizona becoming blue is ridiculous. Try for Texas 38 EVs and you won't have to focus on other states.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Democrats obsession with Arizona becoming blue is ridiculous. Try for Texas 38 EVs and you won't have to focus on other states.

J.Kyl is retiring and Cindy McCain is likely to be appointed should Garcia win the governorship, and then another Democrat can be appointed in 2020. J.McCain's harsh words for Trump leaves no doubt, that AZ is becoming a Secular state.

[Xing]

Atlas has this weird obsession with saying that states will trend in exactly the same way as other states did previously. Arizona may be trending Democratic, but I don't think it's about to go Democratic by mid-high single digits in 2020, unless we're talking about a landslide.

[pbrower2a]

With dissimilar demographics, Arizona and Virginia are not fully comparable. If Arizona elects Sinema in November we have an interesting coincidence. Going against the Republican nominee in 2020? Now that will make more of an analogy.

Both have been profoundly conservative states -- until they weren't. Arizona has a large Hispanic (largely Mexican-American) minority and Virginia has a large black minority, which makes a demographic and cultural difference. This said, both Arizona and Virginia had gone for a Democratic nominee for President only once since 1948 before 2008 in Virginia and... polls suggest that the streak comes to an end in Arizona in 2020. 

The similarity is people coming away from other states for either jobs or to get away from a high cost of living elsewhere -- those people being more liberal than people as a whole already there.

A difference is that Virginia has areas going more R, at least in recent years, as people from more liberal states move in.   

[Person Man]

With dissimilar demographics, Arizona and Virginia are not fully comparable. If Arizona elects Sinema in November we have an interesting coincidence. Going against the Republican nominee in 2020? Now that will make more of an analogy.

Both have been profoundly conservative states -- until they weren't. Arizona has a large Hispanic (largely Mexican-American) minority and Virginia has a large black minority, which makes a demographic and cultural difference. This said, both Arizona and Virginia had gone for a Democratic nominee for President only once since 1948 before 2008 in Virginia and... polls suggest that the streak comes to an end in Arizona in 2020. 

The similarity is people coming away from other states for either jobs or to get away from a high cost of living elsewhere -- those people being more liberal than people as a whole already there.

A difference is that Virginia has areas going more R, at least in recent years, as people from more liberal states move in.   

What about the elderly Boomers whom never gave up their generation's love affair for Reagan? That's my guess at why some urbanizing states are more resistant to political change.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Georgia is far more comparable to Virginia 2006 than Arizona.

Arizona has plenty of white retirees entering the state every year and Hispanics have proven (especially after 2016) to not be as reliable a voting bloc (or as Democratic as suspected) compared to say, black voters in Virginia. There is still plenty of room for growth for Democrats in Arizona with the generational turnover and with suburban college educated voters, but Georgia is a much better bet.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This could be the map of 2020

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

This could be the map of 2020

The left coast annexes Arizona, beautiful! You would be able to drive from Seattle to Denver if that happened.