PA State Legislature Megathread

[progressive85]

On Ballotpedia they have the total votes cast in the party primary and I see more Democrats voted than Republicans in quite a few districts: Warren Kampf, Tom Murt, Todd Stephens, Joe Emrick, Tom Quigley, Christopher Quinn, Duane Milne...do you find those incumbents to be vulnerable?

https://ballotpedia.org/Pennsylvania_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2018#General_election

[ctherainbow]

On Ballotpedia they have the total votes cast in the party primary and I see more Democrats voted than Republicans in quite a few districts: Warren Kampf, Tom Murt, Todd Stephens, Joe Emrick, Tom Quigley, Christopher Quinn, Duane Milne...do you find those incumbents to be vulnerable?

https://ballotpedia.org/Pennsylvania_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2018#General_election

I haven't gotten to analyze those races yet, but generally when the opposing party casts more votes than the incumbent's, when there's not a contested primary for the opposing party, that would very much suggest that those incumbents are vulnerable.  Also, I glanced at the Quigley race, cuz his name made me giggle, and that man should be TERRIFIED this year.  He's lost his seat in the past, and only won it back by 4 points, then only won again by 2 points in 2016.  That's probably going to be a Lean/Likely D prediction for me.

[Badger]

A couple thoughts about Districts 83 and 87:

Re: 83, the City of Williamsport has just under 30k residents, of whom the percentage of African-Americans is in the low to mid teens. I'm not sure how much of a Democratic Base there is to fire up here with a black candidate. Please note I'm reflecting voter ignorance/racism rather than trumpeting it, but it gets harder for an African-American candidate in a white district with a decidedly "black" name like the Democrat running here, as opposed to a black candidate names "Mike Smith" or the like. (Yes, Barack Obama is an exception of course, but for races with infinitely less media coverage, that's still a barrier to many reachable voters who don't like Trump and their economic policies, but are suspicious of blacks as well).

Re: 87, I question whether there's no difference between the East and West Shore communities. One of my closest friends moved to Harrisburg and I went there many, many times over the years. There's a reason locals have historically also called the West Bank  "the White Bank". Probably why this is a GOP leaning district.

[ctherainbow]

A couple thoughts about Districts 83 and 87:

Re: 83, the City of Williamsport has just under 30k residents, of whom the percentage of African-Americans is in the low to mid teens. I'm not sure how much of a Democratic Base there is to fire up here with a black candidate. Please note I'm reflecting voter ignorance/racism rather than trumpeting it, but it gets harder for an African-American candidate in a white district with a decidedly "black" name like the Democrat running here, as opposed to a black candidate names "Mike Smith" or the like. (Yes, Barack Obama is an exception of course, but for races with infinitely less media coverage, that's still a barrier to many reachable voters who don't like Trump and their economic policies, but are suspicious of blacks as well).

Re: 87, I question whether there's no difference between the East and West Shore communities. One of my closest friends moved to Harrisburg and I went there many, many times over the years. There's a reason locals have historically also called the West Bank  "the White Bank". Probably why this is a GOP leaning district.

Oh, I'm fully aware that racism will probably play some part in the District 83 election.  The good news is that there's a good chunk of non-latently racist independents who are not going to be bothered by a black candidate, but I know that the potential of a black representative could turn off a small number of conservative Dems, as well as bringing the racists out of the woodwork to vote against her.  We'll have to see which trend prevails in the outcome.

I think you might've misread the District 87 post.  I said that there definitely WAS a difference; trust me, I noticed the bank-based trends while I was living there, too.   

[Badger]

A couple thoughts about Districts 83 and 87:

Re: 83, the City of Williamsport has just under 30k residents, of whom the percentage of African-Americans is in the low to mid teens. I'm not sure how much of a Democratic Base there is to fire up here with a black candidate. Please note I'm reflecting voter ignorance/racism rather than trumpeting it, but it gets harder for an African-American candidate in a white district with a decidedly "black" name like the Democrat running here, as opposed to a black candidate names "Mike Smith" or the like. (Yes, Barack Obama is an exception of course, but for races with infinitely less media coverage, that's still a barrier to many reachable voters who don't like Trump and their economic policies, but are suspicious of blacks as well).

Re: 87, I question whether there's no difference between the East and West Shore communities. One of my closest friends moved to Harrisburg and I went there many, many times over the years. There's a reason locals have historically also called the West Bank  "the White Bank". Probably why this is a GOP leaning district.

Oh, I'm fully aware that racism will probably play some part in the District 83 election.  The good news is that there's a good chunk of non-latently racist independents who are not going to be bothered by a black candidate, but I know that the potential of a black representative could turn off a small number of conservative Dems, as well as bringing the racists out of the woodwork to vote against her.  We'll have to see which trend prevails in the outcome.

I think you might've misread the District 87 post.  I said that there definitely WAS a difference; trust me, I noticed the bank-based trends while I was living there, too.    

Whoops! You're right. I misread. My bad.

Please keep this up, BTW.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is excellent thank you!

[Badger]

I agree the Senate flipping seems a stretch at first, but if Dems only need to sweep the Tit R or better seats (3 GOP incumbents apiece you rate as Tilt R or Tilt D, plus one toss-up), and then win 2 of three Lean R seats to pull a tie (with LG Fetterman casting the tie-breaker for Dem control), that seems doable in a wave. Of course, you may have a more daunting definition of "lean" than I do.

The key will of course be the Philly burbs (particularly Bucks), where I believe all but two of the seven Tilt/Lean/Tossup R seats are (the others being in greater Allentown and the Poconos).

[ctherainbow]

I agree the Senate flipping seems a stretch at first, but if Dems only need to sweep the Tit R or better seats (3 GOP incumbents apiece you rate as Tilt R or Tilt D, plus one toss-up), and then win 2 of three Lean R seats to pull a tie (with LG Fetterman casting the tie-breaker for Dem control), that seems doable in a wave. Of course, you may have a more daunting definition of "lean" than I do.

The key will of course be the Philly burbs (particularly Bucks), where I believe all but two of the seven Tilt/Lean/Tossup R seats are (the others being in greater Allentown and the Poconos).

Yeah, the seats I categorized as "Lean R" will be a stretch for Dems, but could flip if the wave is YUGE.  We'll have to see.  Southeast PA is going to be key for the PA House/Senate, as well as the US House, so it'll be a fun night of results watching.

[ctherainbow]

Even more House seats!

District 134:

Democrat:  Thomas Applebach
Republican:  Ryan Mackenzie (I)

A partial Berks/Lehigh County district, District 134 has been almost competitive in some past elections, especially in 2012.  However, overall this district has a significant Republican advantage.  Likely R.

District 135:

Democrat:  Steve Samuelson (I)

Uncontested partial Northampton County district, including parts of Bethlehem city.  Strong D.

District 136:

Democrat:  Robert Freeman (I)

Uncontested partial Northampton County district, including the county seat city of Easton.  Strong D.

District 137:

Democrat:  Amy Cozze
Republican:  Joe Emrick (I)
Libertarian:  Ed Reagan

Another partial Northampton County district, this one was represented by a Democrat up until 2010, but since then has elected a Republican representative by comfortable margins.  This is almost a Likely R seat, but because of the wave, plus a Libertarian candidate in the mix, I'm going to rate it as a little bit more vulnerable.  Lean R.

District 138:

Democrat:  Dean Donaher
Republican:  Marcia Hahn (I)
Libertarian:  Jake Towne

Also a partial Northampton County district, this one is similar to the prior district, and is in much the same situation, with a Republican incumbent and both a Democratic and Libertarian challenger.  Lean R.

District 139:

Democrat:  Orlando Marrero
Republican:  Michael Peifer (I)

A partial Wayne/Pike County district that is pretty Republican, District 139's incumbent Peifer hasn't been challenged for his seat in a decade.  That changed this year, but it looks very unlikely that challenger Marrero will unseat him, as both primaries were uncontested, and the Republican primary garnered nearly three times as many votes.  Strong R.

District 140:

Democrat:  John Galloway (I)

Uncontested partial Bucks County district.  Strong D.

District 141:

Democrat:  Tina Davis (I)
Republican:  Anthony Sposato

In this partial Bucks County district, incumbent Tina Davis barely won the seat by 2 points in 2010, but since then, has been re-elected by more comfortable margins.  Those include taking 72 percent of the vote in 2012 against current challenger Anthony Sposato, and it looks unlikely that Davis will do any worse this year.  Strong D.

District 142:

Democrat:  Lauren Lareau
Republican:  Frank Farry (I)

A more northern Bucks County district, this district has had only had one term of Democratic control since 1969.  The Republican lean of this district should keep it in in Farry's hands.  Likely R.

District 143:

Democrat:  Wendy Ullman
Republican:  Joseph Flood

An open northern partial Bucks County district, this seat looks to be very competitive this cycle.  If this seat wasn't an open seat, I'd rate it as Lean/Tilt R, but the loss of longtime incumbent Marguerite Quinn will open the race up more, and more Democrats came out to vote in the primary than Republicans.  Tossup.

District 144:

Democrat:  Meredith Buck
Republican:  F. Todd Polinchock

It's another partial Bucks County district!  This one is also an open Republican seat, but looks to be a bit more Republican than the previous district, based off primary numbers.  However, this one is gonna be tight, too.  Tossup.

District 145:

Democrat:  Brian Kline
Republican:  Craig Staats (I)

Guess which county we're in?  You guessed right, this is another partial Bucks County district.  This one has an incumbent, but his vote margins in 2016 were some of the smallest of the Bucks County Republicans.  He might be able to hold on, but he's going to have to fight for it.  Tilt R.

District 146:

Democrat:  Joseph Ciresi
Republican:  Thomas Quigley (I)

This partial Montgomery County district has a messy electoral history.  Incumbent Quigley represented the district from 2004 to 2012, then lost the district to Mark Painter, then took it back in 2014, and then fended off current challenger Joseph Cirsei by only 3 points in 2016.  It looks like Cirsei's second shot at the seat was well-timed.  Tilt D.

District 147:

Democrat:  Joshua Cameron
Republican:  Marcy Toepel (I)

Another partial Montgomery County district, this one is significantly more Republican.  GOP vote margins sit around the 2 to 1 range, and it's unlikely that can be made up enough to make it competitive.  Likely R.

District 148:

Democrat:  Mary Jo Daley (I)

Uncontested partial Montgomery County district.  Strong D.

District 149:

Democrat:  Tim Briggs (I)

Uncontested partial Montgomery County district.  Strong D.

District 150:

Democrat:  Joseph Webster
Republican:  Nick Fountain

Another partial Montgomery County district, this one is an open Republican seat, and should be very competitive.  The electoral environment, plus a slight edge in the primary vote totals, looks to give Webster the edge this cycle.  Tilt D.

District 151:

Democrat:  Sara Johnson Rothman
Republican:  Todd Stephens (I)

Partial Montgomery County district.  This is a competitive district, and it's going to come down to turnout and Democratic energy versus incumbency and the slight Republican lean of the district.  Tilt R.

District 152:

Democrat:  Daryl Boling
Republican:  Thomas Murt (I)

This partial Montgomery County district also includes a little chunk of Philadelphia, and has not been represented by a Democrat in 50 years.  However, Democratic turnout in the primary was 125% of Republican turnout, so there's clearly energy in this race, and it looks to be competitive.  This could easily move to Tilt R/Tossup closer to November.  Lean R.

District 153:

Democrat:  Ben Sanchez
Republican:  Douglas Beaver Jr.
Libertarian:  Marc Bozzacco

A partial Montgomery County district, District 153's former Democratic incumbent Madeleine Dean regularly won re-election by 2-1 margins.  The seat is open now, but with the partisan lean, electoral environment, and Libertarian candidate siphoning off traditionally Republican votes, this seat should stay on the Dem side of the aisle.  Strong D.

District 154:

Democrat:  Steve McCarter (I)
Republican:  Kathleen Bowers

We're still in Montgomery County, and this district is a 4-1 Democratic district.  For some reason, Republicans keep challenging McCarter, and he keeps crushing them.  Not likely to change this year.  Strong D.

District 155:

Democrat:  Danielle Otten
Republican:  Becky Corbin (I)

A partial Chester County district, this is one to watch.  District 155 has had Democratic representatives in the past, but not since 1990.  Incumbent Becky Corbin is vulnerable in this cycle, though she managed to pull nearly as many voters in the primary as the contested Democratic primary.  I'm going to give this to her for now, but only just.  Tilt R.

District 156:

Democrat:  Carolyn Comitta (I)
Republican:  Nicholas Deminski

Also part of Chester County, this district is going to be tight.  Current incumbent Comitta squeaked out a win in 2016 by 25 votes, and both uncontested primaries this year were separated by only 3 votes, but she should hang onto this seat based off of the polling we've seen of the Philly suburbs this cycle.  Tilt D.

District 157:

Democrat:  Melissa Shusterman
Republican:  Warren Kampf (I)

Partial Chester/Montgomery County district, and incumbent Warren Kampf should be very, very scared.  He won by 12 points in 2016, but previous elections saw him winning by as close as 2 points, and the uncontested Democratic primary turned out almost 1,400 more voters than the uncontested GOP primary.  He's very much in trouble.  Tilt D.

District 158:

Democrat:  Christina Sappey
Republican:  Eric Roe (I)

Another partial Chester County district, this one should also be close.  In the good Republican cycle in 2016, incumbent Eric Roe only managed to win by 6 points, and the contested Republican primary this year only drew 127 more voters than the Democratic one.  Tossup.

District 159:

Democrat:  Brian Kirkland (I)
Republican:  Ruth Moton

This Delaware County district was won in 2016 by incumbent Kirkland with 75% of the vote.  This year's challenger Ruth Moton won't topple him, barring a miracle.  Strong D.

District 160:

Democrat:  Anton Andrew
Republican:  Stephen Barrar (I)

District 160 is split between Chester/Delaware County, and incumbent Barrar regularly wins over 60% of the vote.  He's not likely to lose this district, though it could be his tightest re-election in a long time.  Likely R.

District 161:

Democrat:  Leanne Krueger-Braneky (I)
Republican:  Patti Rodgers Morrisette

A Delaware County district, this is a very competitive area.  Out of the past five elections, only one candidate was able to win more than 55% of the vote.  In 2016, current incumbent Krueger-Braneky held the seat by only 2 points.  Her challenger from that election wants a rematch, but will probably not be able to take the seat, especially if suburban swing goes the way polling has suggested.  Tilt D.

District 162:

Democrat:  David Delloso
Republican:  Mary Hopper

This riverside Delaware County district is much more Republican than most Delaware County districts, and though former incumbent Nick Miccarelli retired, leaving the seat open, the partisan lean of the district should allow Mary Hopper to hold the seat for the GOP.  Likely R.

District 163:

Democrat:  Michael Zabel
Republican:  Jamie Santora (I)

Another Delaware County district, this one is more competitive.  Republicans have not been able to break 55% of the vote since 2010, and this cycle should be tough for incumbent Santora.  Tossup.

District 164:

Democrat:  Margo Davidson (I)
Republican:  Inderjit Bains

In this Delaware County district, incumbent Davidson only won the seat in her initial 2010 election by about 7 points.  However, since then, she's settled out at around 80% of the vote, and in a rematch of 2016 against Bains, she's unlikely to lose.  Strong D.

District 165:

Democrat:  Jennifer Omara
Republican:  Alexander Charlton (I)

The current incumbent of this Delaware County district won the seat in 2016 by 12 points, and this is his second term, so voters will have had a chance to get comfortable with him.  This isn't the most competitive Delaware County district, but as stated in other races, suburban swing, electoral environment, and incumbency are all going to be big factors here.  Tilt R.

District 166:

Democrat:  Gregory Vitali (I)
Republican:  Baltazar Rubio

Split between Delaware County and Montgomery County, District 166's incumbent Vitali has represented the district since the year of my birth, and seems to have been steadily increasing his win margins in recent elections.  I wouldn't rate him as vulnerable.  Strong D.

District 167:

Democrat:  Kristine Howard
Republican:  Duane Milne (I)

We're hopping back over to Chester County for this district, which has leaned Republican in recent elections.  I'd have to do more research into the 2016 race to find out why incumbent Milne dropped 4.5 points between 2014 and 2016, but even with that anamalous statistic, Milne looks like the favorite to win.  Lean R.

District 168:

Democrat:  Kristin Seale
Republican:  Christopher Quinn (I)

Heading back into Delaware County, this district is yet another competitive one.  Current incumbent Quinn won the seat in 2016 with 56% of the vote, so it's down to how much his legislative record and recognition bonus weigh against energized Democratic voters.  Tilt R.

District 169:

Democrat:  Sarah Hammond
Republican:  Kate Anne Klunk (I)

Electoral information was a little hard to get for this York County district, but based on what I could find, and looking at the demographics of the area, it looks like incumbent Klunk should be holding this seat after November.  Strong R.

District 170:

Democrat:  Michael Doyle Jr
Republican:  Martina White (I)

This Philadelphia district has to be a top target for state Dems, as it was represented until 2015 by Democrat Brendan Boyle.  Current incumbent Martina White won the special election to replace him, and managed to hold her seat in 2016 with less than 54% of the vote.  This cycle looks dire for her, as Democrat Doyle Jr garnered nearly 1,200 more uncontested primary votes than uncontested incumbent White did, in a district that was decided by only around 2,000 votes last cycle.  Tilt D.

District 171:

Democrat:  Erin McCracken
Republican:  Kerry Benninghoff (I)

This district spans parts of Centre County and Mifflin County, and is pretty Republican.  Challenger McCracken managed to draw pretty close in primary vote totals, but incumbent Benninghoff is still the heavy favorite here.  Likely R.

District 172:

Democrat:  Kevin Boyle (I)

Uncontested Philadelphia district that also includes a tiny bit of Montgomery County.  Strong D.

District 173:

Democrat:  Michael Driscoll (I)

Uncontested Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 174:

Democrat:  Edward Neilson (I)

Uncontested Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 175:

Democrat:  Mary Isaacson

Uncontested open Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 176:

Democrat:  Claudette Williams
Republican:  Jack Rader Jr (I)

This 30%+ minority Monroe County district leans more Republican than I initially expected, and a contested primary on the Democratic side didn't come anywhere near the vote total of the uncontested Republican primary.  Despite some historically close elections in this district, it doesn't look to be super competitive this cycle.  Lean R.

District 177:

Democrat:  Joseph Hohenstein
Republican:  Patty Kozlowski

Back to Philadelphia, and this district is another hot one!  Republican incumbent since 1985 John Taylor is not up for re-election this cycle, and the winner of the 4-way Democratic primary still managed to get more primary votes than Republican Kozlowski, even with his winning percentage of only 37%.  This looks to be a pickup for Dems.  Lean D.

District 178:

Democrat:  Helen Tai (I)
Republican:  Wendi Thomas

In this Bucks County district, incumbent Helen Tai has only held the seat since this May's special election, which she won by only 2 points.  In the primary elections, also held in May, Thomas garnered about 400 more votes than Tai, which suggests that independents broke harder for Tai.  I'm going to give Tai the winner's Tilt advantage, but this is going to be close.  Tilt D.

District 179:

Democrat:  Jason Dawkins (I)

Uncontested Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 180:

Democrat:  Angel Cruz (I)

Uncontested Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 181:

Democrat:  Malcolm Kenyatta
Republican:  Thomas Street

To give you an idea of how Democratic this open Philadelphia district is, 57 times as many Democrats voted in the primary as Republicans.  Strong D.

District 182:

Democrat:  Brian Sims (I)
Independent:  James McDevitt

This Philadelphia district is represented by Daryl Metcalfe target, queer PA icon, and consummate daddy, Brian Sims.  He's facing an outside challenge by also gay independent James McDevitt, who is running to the left of Sims(on some issues, not all), and also focusing on issues in the racial minority portions of the Philly queer community.  However, I couldn't find a campaign website for McDevitt, and only some rudimentary Facebook pages.  Either way this race goes, the winner would caucus with the Dems, and Sims will probably hold the seat.  Strong D.

District 183:

Democrat:  Jason Ruff
Republican:  Zachary Mako (I)

For District 183, we're headed back up to Lehigh County and Northampton County, and to an incumbent with a cool shark last name.  Mako won the seat in 2016 with 58% of the vote, but Jason Ruff only got 500 less primary votes than Mako, so it looks to be significantly tighter than 2016.  Still advantage Mako.  Lean R.

District 184:

Democrat:  Elizabeth Fiedler

Uncontested open Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 185:

Democrat:  Maria Donatucci (I)

Uncontested Delaware County and Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 186:

Democrat:  Jordan Harris (I)

Uncontested Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 187:

Democrat:  Michael Blichar Jr
Republican:  Gary Day (I)

This Berks/Lehigh County district has a pretty Republican lean, and current challenger Blichar Jr got on the ballot after primary winner Archie Follweiler withdrew in June.  Likely R.

District 188:

Democrat:  James Roebuck Jr (I)

Uncontested Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 189:

Democrat:  Adam Rodriguez
Republican:  Rosemary Brown (I)

In this Monroe/Pike County district, incumbent Rosemary Brown has built up comfortable 63%+ wins the past two elections, though if you look towards the beginning of her tenure in this seat, the margins drop by almost 10 points.  This should be a tougher year for her than usual, though she starts off as the favorite, due to both her tenure and a lackluster Democratic primary.  Lean R.

District 190:

Democrat:  Vanessa Lowery Brown (I)

Uncontested Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 191:

Democrat:  Joanna McClinton (I)

Uncontested Delaware County/Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 192:

Democrat:  Morgan Cephas (I)

Uncontested Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 193:

Democrat:  Matthew Nelson
Republican:  Torren Ecker

Heavily Republican open Adams/Cumberland County district.  Republicans regularly win 70%+ of the vote.  Strong R.

District 194:

Democrat:  Pamela DeLissio (I)
Republican:  Sean Stevens
Libertarian:  Matthew Baltsar

Montgomery County/Philadelphia district with a hefty Democratic advantage.  Toss in a Libertarian candidate, and DeLissio looks very safe.  Strong D.

Last batch of seats, starting with District 195: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=300810.msg6407560#msg6407560

[Badger]

Wolf and letterman should just relocate to bucks and Montgomery till election day

[Virginiá]

Slightly off-topic here, but a 2020 analysis of PA's legislative elections could end up looking a lot different than this. I'd say there is a 80% chance that a lawsuit is brought in state court(s) against the legislative districts in 2019, leading to new districts ahead of the 2020 elections. Given the unhinged response of Republicans in the legislature over the Congressional redraw, it stands to reason that said groups are just waiting until the legislature no longer has the votes to unilaterally remove PASC justices. After all, it is one thing to go after the Republican House delegation, and another to effectively threaten the jobs of dozens of Republican state lawmakers (who have the power to impeach)

[ctherainbow]

Wolf and letterman should just relocate to bucks and Montgomery till election day

Eh, I'd keep Fetterman bouncing around SWPA for now, but Wolf should definitely be campaigning in the SEPA area.  Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery, and Schuylkill counties are all going to be key in the statewide races as well as many US and state legislative races.  If Dems can't knock Fitzpatrick out of the 1st US Congressional District(Bucks), they're not gonna have a great night.

[ctherainbow]

Slightly off-topic here, but a 2020 analysis of PA's legislative elections could end up looking a lot different than this. I'd say there is a 80% chance that a lawsuit is brought in state court(s) against the legislative districts in 2019, leading to new districts ahead of the 2020 elections. Given the unhinged response of Republicans in the legislature over the Congressional redraw, it stands to reason that said groups are just waiting until the legislature no longer has the votes to unilaterally remove PASC justices. After all, it is one thing to go after the Republican House delegation, and another to effectively threaten the jobs of dozens of Republican state lawmakers (who have the power to impeach)

I could definitely see this being the case.  Which districts do you think are some of the worst, and should be redistricted?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Wolf and letterman should just relocate to bucks and Montgomery till election day

Eh, I'd keep Fetterman bouncing around SWPA for now, but Wolf should definitely be campaigning in the SEPA area.  Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery, and Schuylkill counties are all going to be key in the statewide races as well as many US and state legislative races.  If Dems can't knock Fitzpatrick out of the 1st US Congressional District(Bucks), they're not gonna have a great night.

Winning the 1st isn't a must for the Dems to win the house.

[ctherainbow]

Eh, I'd keep Fetterman bouncing around SWPA for now, but Wolf should definitely be campaigning in the SEPA area.  Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery, and Schuylkill counties are all going to be key in the statewide races as well as many US and state legislative races.  If Dems can't knock Fitzpatrick out of the 1st US Congressional District(Bucks), they're not gonna have a great night.

Winning the 1st isn't a must for the Dems to win the house.

I didn't say that.     I said that if they can't knock him out, they're not going to have a GREAT night, which I would classify as not just winning the House, but also having a good margin.  And Fitzpatrick is also the most vulnerable sitting Republican in the PA delegation(maybe tied with Rothfus), so if Dems are going to do well in Pennsylvania, he'll be the first to go.  

[ctherainbow]

I'm finally done with initial research/predictions!  Here are the last few seats:

District 195:

Democrat:  Donna Bullock (I)

Uncontested Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 196:

Republican:  Sean Grove (I)

Uncontested York County district.  Strong R.

District 197:

Democrat:  Danilo Burgos

Uncontested open Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 198:

Democrat:  Rosita Youngblood (I)

Uncontested Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 199:

Democrat:  Joseph McGinnis Jr
Republican:  Barbara Gleim
Libertarian:  Charles Boust

Open Cumberland County district that is heavily Republican.  Libertarian Boust could siphon votes, but likely won't change the outcome here.  Likely R.

District 200:

Democrat:  Christopher Rabb (I)

Uncontested Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 201:

Democrat:  Stephen Kinsey (I)

Uncontested Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 202:

Democrat:  Jared Solomon (I)

Uncontested Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 203:

Democrat:  Isabella Fitzgerald (I)

Uncontested Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

Thanks so much for reading my rundown/analysis/predictions!    

[Badger]

I'm finally done with initial research/predictions!  Here are the last few seats:

District 199:

Democrat:  Joseph McGinnis Jr
Republican:  Barbara Gleim
Libertarian:  Charles Boust

Open Cumberland County district that is heavily Republican.  Libertarian Boust could siphon votes, but likely won't change the outcome here.  Likely R.

District 200:

Democrat:  Christopher Rabb (I)

Uncontested Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 201:

Democrat:  Stephen Kinsey (I)

Uncontested Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 202:

Democrat:  Jared Solomon (I)

Uncontested Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 203:

Democrat:  Isabella Fitzgerald (I)

Uncontested Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

Thanks so much for reading my rundown/analysis/predictions!   

Great job!

Now start right away on updates.

[ctherainbow]

Great job!

Now start right away on updates.

[ctherainbow]

Some Senate candidate press updates:

Senate District 6:

Even though she wasn't charged, this is bad press for Democratic Senate hopeful Tina Davis, as her husband was charged with theft of housing assistance funds:

http://www.buckscountycouriertimes.com/news/20180911/husband-of-state-rep-tina-davis-charged-with-housing-assistance-theft

Not great for her, as she's in a competitive district, where any missteps could cost her the race.

Senate District 44:

Democratic candidate Katie Muth decides not to share the stage with accused fellow Democrat and State Senator Daylin Leach; Leach lashes out at her:

http://www2.philly.com/philly/columnists/clout/clout-daylin-leach-sexual-harassment-katie-muth-jewell-williams-20180907.html

Senate District 46:

Democrat James Craig being investigated for potential nomination petition signature fraud; he denies knowledge of fraud:

http://www.timesonline.com/news/20180908/beaver-county-da-investigates-state-senate-candidate-james-craigs-petitions-for-possible-forged-signatures

Recent news that I could find on State Senate races seems to be mostly bad for Democratic candidates, and Tina Davis and James Craig are two candidates who both have a chance to win the seats they're running for, so bad press like this could make the difference in November.

[ctherainbow]

I bet the Dem candidate running in House District 193 wishes that current representative Will Tallman was running for re-election and not leaving the position, because this mess happened:

http://www.mcall.com/news/nationworld/pennsylvania/mc-nws-pennsylvania-tallman-political-speech-ban-bill-20180917-story.html#

[ON Progressive]

Saw this internal for Emily Skopov in PA HD-28: https://p.pghcitypaper.com/media/pdf/emily_skopov_mike_turzai_poll_memo.pdf

It has her only down 50-45 against the Speaker of the PA House, and tied among those almost certain to vote. Wolf also leads BIG (53-39) in this district he lost 62-37 in 2014. If these numbers are remotely in reality (I am looking at these very skeptically), RIP the PA GOP.

[Duke of York]

Saw this internal for Emily Skopov in PA HD-28: https://p.pghcitypaper.com/media/pdf/emily_skopov_mike_turzai_poll_memo.pdf

It has her only down 50-45 against the Speaker of the PA House, and tied among those almost certain to vote. Wolf also leads BIG (53-39) in this district he lost 62-37 in 2014. If these numbers are remotely in reality (I am looking at these very skeptically), RIP the PA GOP.

That would be amazing to see him go down after the temper tantrum the PA GOP threw regarding the district lines decision.

[IceSpear]

Saw this internal for Emily Skopov in PA HD-28: https://p.pghcitypaper.com/media/pdf/emily_skopov_mike_turzai_poll_memo.pdf

It has her only down 50-45 against the Speaker of the PA House, and tied among those almost certain to vote. Wolf also leads BIG (53-39) in this district he lost 62-37 in 2014. If these numbers are remotely in reality (I am looking at these very skeptically), RIP the PA GOP.

That would be amazing to see him go down after the temper tantrum the PA GOP threw regarding the district lines decision.

Not only that, he also flat out admitted he only passed the voter ID law to help Mitt Romney win the state. That worked out great for him. The guy's a real scumbag. I'd love to see him lose, but it's probably too good to be true.

[ctherainbow]

Saw this internal for Emily Skopov in PA HD-28: https://p.pghcitypaper.com/media/pdf/emily_skopov_mike_turzai_poll_memo.pdf

It has her only down 50-45 against the Speaker of the PA House, and tied among those almost certain to vote. Wolf also leads BIG (53-39) in this district he lost 62-37 in 2014. If these numbers are remotely in reality (I am looking at these very skeptically), RIP the PA GOP.

Thanks for sharing this info!  I'm gonna add the link.  I agree that a good dose of skepticism is needed when looking at these numbers, but if results like this bear out across the Commonwealth on November 6th, the PA GOP is going to be wrecked, probably losing the state house and senate and sending an 11D/7R House delegation to Washington.

[ctherainbow]

I've started going back over all the races, checking for news and doing a deeper dive into the demographics and partisan trends of each district, so I have some updated predictions for the State Senate:

District 6:  Tilt R --> Tilt R

While there's no actual change in rating here, this race had been edging closer to Tossup range.  However, Democratic candidate Tina Davis' husband was charged with housing assistance theft, and it was widely reported upon by local press.  What level of association voters will have between Tina and her husband's crimes remains to be seen, but this is definitely not a positive development for her campaign.

District 12:  Lean R --> Tilt R

For District 12, I dove a bit deeper into partisan demographic trends, as well as checked my bit overblown "PA legacy candidate electability" bias, and came out with an eye towards moving this race a bit closer to the middle.  I still expect Republican candidate Stewart Greenleaf Jr to win, but it is probably going to be closer than I initially expected.

District 38:  Tilt D --> Lean D

In this northern Allegheny County district, Democratic candidate Lindsey Williams appears to be doing a good job consolidating support, especially with younger voters.  While an internal Williams campaign poll from early September looked a bit optimistic for her, since then, we've gotten PA regional polling from more reputable sources that indicate she and other Southwest PA Democratic candidates are running better than expected.  I'm keeping my eye on this race, but for now I'm moving it to Lean D.

District 46:  Tilt D --> Tossup

Democratic candidate James Craig's campaign has been dogged by allegations of fraudulent signatures on his nominating petition since September, and his opponent is continuing to make an issue of it in more recent debates.  Craig still would have gotten on the ballot without the contested signatures, but appearing fraudulent at all is going to impact his candidacy.  I still think he has a shot to win, but this unnecessary scandal is going to hurt him at least a bit.


Other races had some under-reported sketchy campaign doings and slightly different demographics than I initially analyzed, but no races beyond these four had enough change for me to consider moving or mentioning them.