PA State Legislature Megathread

[Tekken_Guy]

The GOP are going to be bleeding seats in the Philly Suburbs thanks to Trump. Trump has made everything Republican in these types of well-educated districts radioactive. The senate will be harder because only half the chamber is up this year, but I see a few potential for gains.

[Virginiá]

The GOP are going to be bleeding seats in the Philly Suburbs thanks to Trump. Trump has made everything Republican in these types of well-educated districts radioactive. The senate will be harder because only half the chamber is up this year, but I see a few potential for gains.

How do you feel about the Obama-Trump districts? IIRC, there were almost as many of those as there were Romney-Clinton, with lots of Democrats holding them. Is it likely they hold on this cycle, even if they might get booted out down the road?

Flipping the ~21 seats needed is already a pretty tough lift, and I'm surprised it's even possible in the first place. I was expecting Democrats to have to wait until 2020, when the state Supreme Court will probably have invalidated the legislative maps. That is, assuming a lawsuit is brought, and I can't see why there wouldn't be one, once Republicans can no longer unilaterally impeach and remove the justices for taking up the case.

[ctherainbow]

How do you feel about the Obama-Trump districts? IIRC, there were almost as many of those as there were Romney-Clinton, with lots of Democrats holding them. Is it likely they hold on this cycle, even if they might get booted out down the road?

Flipping the ~21 seats needed is already a pretty tough lift, and I'm surprised it's even possible in the first place. I was expecting Democrats to have to wait until 2020, when the state Supreme Court will probably have invalidated the legislative maps. That is, assuming a lawsuit is brought, and I can't see why there wouldn't be one, once Republicans can no longer unilaterally impeach and remove the justices for taking up the case.

A chunk of the Dems in Obama/Trump seats already got winnowed out in 2016, and those that survived are likely to hang in there, at least based upon polling we've seen so far from regions around the state, which indicates average PA Dems, even in less favorable districts, running even with, or outperforming, the national generic ballot.

And the good news is that despite gerrymandering, the GOP already had such an outsized presence in swing districts that a big pickup is attainable, especially given the favorable environment.  If I had to call it right now, I'd give Dems a 55-60% chance of taking the state House, which, given PA's status as a Tilt/Lean D state, will be much more representative of the electorate, despite any pro-GOP gerrymandering.

[ctherainbow]

The GOP are going to be bleeding seats in the Philly Suburbs thanks to Trump. Trump has made everything Republican in these types of well-educated districts radioactive. The senate will be harder because only half the chamber is up this year, but I see a few potential for gains.

Yeah, a lot of GOP incumbents are going to have to work their butts off in Philly burb/Lehigh Valley/small city districts to hang on to their seats.  PA suburbia as of now is polling pretty harshly for the GOP.

[Tekken_Guy]

There are several Obama/Trump voters disillusioned by the president. I can’t think of any Romney/Clinton voters who would warm up to him. So, yeah, blue-collar D’s aren’t in nearly the same danger as suburban R’s, in Pennsylvania or in any other state.

[Orser67]

The GOP are going to be bleeding seats in the Philly Suburbs thanks to Trump. Trump has made everything Republican in these types of well-educated districts radioactive.

Yeah, I expect this to be an important election not just in the short term but also in the long term for the Greater Philadelphia area. I think the GOP is going to lose a lot of suburban seats that they will not be winning back for quite a while.

The suburban Philly counties delegations are currently:
Bucks:
6-4 Republican in state house
4-0 Republican in state senate

Chester:
8-1 Republican in the state house
3-1 Republican in the state senate

Delaware:
6-5 Democrats in state house
2-2 in state senate

Montgomery:
10-8 Republican in state house
3-3 in state senate

I suspect that Republicans will lose their majorities in the house in all four counties, or at least come close. Add to that likely pickups in the U.S. House in both PA and NJ, and this is going to be a huge election for Democrats in the Greater Philadelphia Area.

[ctherainbow]

Yeah, I expect this to be an important election not just in the short term but also in the long term for the Greater Philadelphia area. I think the GOP is going to lose a lot of suburban seats that they will not be winning back for quite a while.

The suburban Philly counties delegations are currently:

Bucks:
6-4 Republican in state house
4-0 Republican in state senate

Chester:
8-1 Republican in the state house
3-1 Republican in the state senate

Delaware:
6-5 Democrats in state house
2-2 in state senate

Montgomery:
10-8 Republican in state house
3-3 in state senate

I suspect that Republicans will lose their majorities in the house in all four counties, or at least come close. Add to that likely pickups in the U.S. House in both PA and NJ, and this is going to be a huge election for Democrats in the Greater Philadelphia Area.

I think there's a large chance of the GOP losing their House majorities in all the collar counties, and in the Democrat's best-case huge blue wave scenario, the flipping could end up looking something like this:

Bucks:
9-1 Democrat in state house
3-1 Democrat in state senate

Chester:
7-2 Democrat in state house
2-2 tied in state senate

Delaware:
9-2 Democrat in state house
3-1 Democrat in state senate

Montgomery:
13-5 Democrat in state house
4-2 Democrat in state senate

This would of course require Dems to take every Southeast PA seat that's reasonably competitive, but given some of polling that's come out about suburban swing in PA, it could happen, which would cripple the Southeast PA GOP for the next few years.

Where ya from, by the way?  You from SEPA?

[Badger]

Saw this internal for Emily Skopov in PA HD-28: https://p.pghcitypaper.com/media/pdf/emily_skopov_mike_turzai_poll_memo.pdf

It has her only down 50-45 against the Speaker of the PA House, and tied among those almost certain to vote. Wolf also leads BIG (53-39) in this district he lost 62-37 in 2014. If these numbers are remotely in reality (I am looking at these very skeptically), RIP the PA GOP.

Thanks for sharing this info!  I'm gonna add the link.  I agree that a good dose of skepticism is needed when looking at these numbers, but if results like this bear out across the Commonwealth on November 6th, the PA GOP is going to be wrecked, probably losing the state house and senate and sending an 11D/7R House delegation to Washington.

I grew up in this district. My parents moved from it to downtown Pittsburgh only a year ago. Nice if true, but color me skeptical in what has to be the most GOP friendly house district in Allegheny County, if not all SW PA. With tge possible excption of the one just to the north centered in Cranberry Twp.

[wbrocks67]

The fact that Republicans still lead the delegation in Montgomery County is a travesty.

[Orser67]

Where ya from, by the way?  You from SEPA?

Yup. Over the years I've lived in Montco, Delco, Chesco, and Philadelphia. You?

[ctherainbow]

Where ya from, by the way?  You from SEPA?

Yup. Over the years I've lived in Montco, Delco, Chesco, and Philadelphia. You?

Cool!  I lived in the Poconos for a while growing up, Harrisburg during college, and now I’m up north of Scranton in Trump country.   😅

[ctherainbow]

State House Update:

Incumbent Democrat Sid Michaels Kavulich, of the 114th House District, passed away 4 days ago, leaving his seat open.  He had been unopposed in this November's election, and now the state legislature will need to call a special election to fill his seat.  Due to the loss of a well-known incumbent, plus the district's PVI, I'm moving the seat to Tilt D for now, with updates to come as the special election shapes up.

https://www.pahomepage.com/news/pennsylvania-representative-sid-michaels-kavulich-passes-at-age-62/1527870966

[PragmaticPopulist]

Hey cthrainbow. Great job on this analysis! I'm not from PA myself, but as one of the states that's most interesting to me politically, I really enjoyed this! I made a ratings map here for the State House based on your ratings.



(Yes, I am using non-atlas colors. Sue me.)

I'll be making one for the senate as well.

[ctherainbow]

Hey cthrainbow. Great job on this analysis! I'm not from PA myself, but as one of the states that's most interesting to me politically, I really enjoyed this! I made a ratings map here for the State House based on your ratings.



(Yes, I am using non-atlas colors. Sue me.)

I'll be making one for the senate as well.

Thank you!  This is great.  I'm gonna be running through the districts one last time to double-check myself, but absent scandals or last-minute major regional voter swings, most of the ratings will likely stay the same.  Thanks again!   

[Oryxslayer]

It think that if the PA-10, PA-16, and PA-08 polls are anywhere close to accurate, then they suggest the bottom has completely fallen out of the PA republican campaign. Its a combination of local tragedy and Wagner/Barletta falling through their respective floors. And the fact that PA has virtually no early voting, so everyone will have experienced the most recent events. If so, then I wouldn't be surprised if PA dems blow right past the tossups and push deem into your lean Rep category to capture the chamber.

Bu all this is assumptions built without a quality Pennsylvania poll. Frankly, I doubt we get one before Tuesday.

[ctherainbow]

It think that if the PA-10, PA-16, and PA-08 polls are anywhere close to accurate, then they suggest the bottom has completely fallen out of the PA republican campaign. Its a combination of local tragedy and Wagner/Barletta falling through their respective floors. And the fact that PA has virtually no early voting, so everyone will have experienced the most recent events. If so, then I wouldn't be surprised if PA dems blow right past the tossups and push deem into your lean Rep category to capture the chamber.

Bu all this is assumptions built without a quality Pennsylvania poll. Frankly, I doubt we get one before Tuesday.

Yeah, a lack of good statewide campaigns is definitely hurting downballot candidates here; Scott Wagner has ramped up advertising over the last week, and I finally saw a Barletta ad for the first time this October, but it's looking like too little, too late.  The more local candidates whose campaigns I've been able to monitor seem to be very excited about their prospects, even Dems in rural areas.  I know that Atlas dreads mentions of yard signs, but in my local congressional and state house races, I haven't seen this many Dem yard signs up in the district since Chris Carney held the seat here.

So while I'm a bit scared about Dems like McCaskill and Donnelly, I'm 99% sure that we'll be sending Casey back to Washington, along with potentially an 11D/7R House delegation (I'm thinking 9D/9R if the GOP overperforms expectations).  As far as the state goes, also 99% sure Wolf will get his second term, and I'm expecting the GOP to retain control of the State Senate, while I think it's likely Dems will flip the State House.  But we'll have to see.   

[wbrocks67]

Yep, I've only just recently started seeing Wagner ads in the last week. Not sure why he waited this long to go up.

Also been seeing tons of ads for Susan Wild and Chrissy Houlahan. In addition to the still constant barrage of Wallace/Fitzpatrick ads.

Still a ton of Wolf/Casey ads, and those have been going for weeks now.

The local GOP chapter in Montco has really ramped up putting signs up for Barletta, Wagner, McCauley, and even Dan David (PA-04). The thing is, their all in general public places. Haven't seen a ton of those signs in peoples actual yards.

Recently went through PA-06 area, saw a ton of Chrissy Houlahan signs. Also, going through PA-11, saw some Smucker signs but also a surprising amount of Jess King signs.

[Oryxslayer]

Well what do I know, we go a F&M poll that had a GCB of D+15 and topline leads of 15 for Casey and 26 for Wolf. This definitely feels like a Pennsylvania backlash that will flip the State House.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Well what do I know, we go a F&M poll that had a GCB of D+15 and topline leads of 15 for Casey and 26 for Wolf. This definitely feels like a Pennsylvania backlash that will flip the State House.

A D+15 generic also puts Democrats pretty close to flipping the State Senate.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Here's the senate map!

[Oryxslayer]

Here's the senate map!

Nice! I think it would help, particularly in SEPA, if you get one with only seats up for election labeled.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

If Dems got close to a Senate takeover (i.e. a D+6 or 7) would that tee them up for a takeover in 2020? Or is the anticipated Dem wave in PA this year unique enough where the 2020 GOP incumbents won't be as threatened and the uphill climb is too much for Dems.

[Mr.Phips]

If Dems got close to a Senate takeover (i.e. a D+6 or 7) would that tee them up for a takeover in 2020? Or is the anticipated Dem wave in PA this year unique enough where the 2020 GOP incumbents won't be as threatened and the uphill climb is too much for Dems.

Well I would think SD-49 should be a Dem pickup in 2020.  That seat is most of Erie county and Hillary won there by a good margin.  I don't know what the Dem incumbent did to lose there in 2016.

[ctherainbow]

If Dems got close to a Senate takeover (i.e. a D+6 or 7) would that tee them up for a takeover in 2020? Or is the anticipated Dem wave in PA this year unique enough where the 2020 GOP incumbents won't be as threatened and the uphill climb is too much for Dems.

In 2020, Dems should definitely look to target Republican-held Districts 9, 13, 15, 29, and 49 (maybe Districts 35, 37, and 47) while Republicans would likely look to target Democrat-held District 19 (maybe District 45).  All those seats are within the realm of possibility to flip, and as Mr Phips said, District 49 would (unless something crazy happened) be a likely flip.  If the evening goes very well for PA Dems this year(+7 or +8, if they sweep the seats I have as "Tilt R"), they would only need a net gain of about 3-4 seats in 2020 to take control of the Senate, and have a trifecta going into redistricting.

[ctherainbow]

My final (as final as they can be, given the sheer messiness of recent elections) predictions for the state legislature are going to be Republicans keeping a decreased majority in the State Senate, and Dems taking the State House.  If I had to put numbers on it, I'd say:

PA State Senate:  28 R/22 D

PA State House:  98 R/105 D

Which would be D+6 in the Senate, and D+23 in the House.  That would require Dems not losing any of their current seats that are up for election in either chamber, and taking all the GOP-controlled seats in my "Lean D", "Tilt D", "Tossup" districts, as well as half of the "Tilt R" districts.