OH-Change Research-Brown +4

[GeorgiaModerate]

http://innovationohio.org/2018/09/06/new-poll-shows-tied-gubernatorial-race-close-races-up-and-down-the-ballot/

Aug. 31-Sep. 4,  822 likely voters

Brown 46
Renacci 42

[Skye]

Isn't change research a Republican pollster?

[Beet]

https://medium.com/@ChngRsrch/change-research-only-pollster-to-call-florida-primary-for-gillum-13c341d218c0

[Politician]

https://medium.com/@ChngRsrch/change-research-only-pollster-to-call-florida-primary-for-gillum-13c341d218c0

Safe D, obviously. Brown won't lose.

[SnowLabrador]

This probably means one of three things, given that the national GOP has pretty much given up on Renacci.

1. There's been some enormous shift in the national environment and/or a major Sherrod Brown scandal I haven't heard of.

2. This is a sh**tty pollster.

3. The Democratic Party released this poll to make it look like there's blood in the water in Ohio, in order to get the GOP to spend there rather than in other Senate battlegrounds.

I think option 2 is the most likely one. That said, the Democrats should absolutely not take this seat for granted, given that Trump won in Ohio by 8 points.

[MT Treasurer]

Brown is favored, but closer to Tester/Manchin favored than Stabenow/Baldwin/Casey favored. Lean D.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://medium.com/@ChngRsrch/change-research-only-pollster-to-call-florida-primary-for-gillum-13c341d218c0

Emerson and Gravis had some good results too but nobody would mistake them for quality pollsters.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

This was always going to get closer, weak lean D.

[Xing]

If Democrats have a lackluster night, this result wouldn't be implausible, but I definitely don't see Brown losing. Likely D.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Not a shock considering how much Dems have abandoned the Rust Belt with their economic centrist/Wall Street  kick they've been on lately. Pure toss-up...heading towards Lean R if this trend keeps at it.

[ON Progressive]

Not a shock considering how much Dems have abandoned the Rust Belt with their economic centrist/Wall Street  kick they've been on lately. Pure toss-up...heading towards Lean R if this trend keeps at it.

Tossup because of a single outlier poll from a garbage firm? LMAO.

[Ebsy]

Change is a very bad firm with a terrible record.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Not a shock considering how much Dems have abandoned the Rust Belt with their economic centrist/Wall Street  kick they've been on lately. Pure toss-up...heading towards Lean R if this trend keeps at it.

Tossup because of a single outlier poll from a garbage firm? LMAO.

Funny how polls become garbage after they show something that wrecks narratives. Reminds me of the time everyone hated on Gold Standard Marquette after it showed Walker tied with Evers.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

I see concern trolling is still alive and well on the congressional boards.

[Ebsy]

Funny how polls become garbage after they show something that wrecks narratives. Reminds me of the time everyone hated on Gold Standard Marquette after it showed Walker tied with Evers.

It's garbage because Change is a terrible firm. Any serious review of their record since their founding shows them more often than not being terribly off base.

[ON Progressive]

Not a shock considering how much Dems have abandoned the Rust Belt with their economic centrist/Wall Street  kick they've been on lately. Pure toss-up...heading towards Lean R if this trend keeps at it.

Tossup because of a single outlier poll from a garbage firm? LMAO.

Funny how polls become garbage after they show something that wrecks narratives. Reminds me of the time everyone hated on Gold Standard Marquette after it showed Walker tied with Evers.

https://medium.com/@ChngRsrch/moore-holds-six-point-lead-on-election-eve-51c1f6502a4b
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1x21Xkro409WL497_yzjXaA91QEnNjjvyRRjny0LIJxY/edit#gid=1057635540
https://twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/975859450568298496
https://www.scribd.com/document/385205055/MI-Gov-Change-Research-D-for-Abdul-El-Sayed-July-2018

[john cage bubblegum]

Change Research is a garbo pollster.  I know they came out months ago, but the last three polls of this race by legit pollsters had Brown up 13-17 points.  I could believe OH-Sen has tightened a bit from those kind of margins, but I really doubt there's been that significant of a shift here.  I'd need to see more polling data here before viewing this race as even somewhat competitive.

[President Johnson]

Still likely Democratic. I expect Brown to win by high single digits. Maybe 52-44% or so.

[Person Man]

If these people have the gov's mansion tied, things are looking good.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Brown is only ahead in a 279 friewal map, this race can get tight.

[IceSpear]

Change isn't the greatest pollster (putting it mildly) but would this result really surprise you guys that much? Remember that Brown beat trash-tier candidate Josh Mandel by only 6 points in 2012, and Ohio has veered sharply to the right since then. Yeah, 2018 will likely be a better environment for Dems, but 2012 wasn't exactly a poor environment for Senate Democrats either. I've always thought this race was going to narrow. I'd be way more shocked at Brown winning by double digits than I would be at him winning by 4.

[IceSpear]

New Poll: Ohio Senator by Other Source on 2018-09-04

Summary: D: 46%, R: 42%, U: 12%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Badger]

This was always going to get closer, weak lean D.

Just stop Limo Lib....er, Bagel.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Brown is running a better campaign than Cordray

[wbrocks67]

Change isn't the greatest pollster (putting it mildly) but would this result really surprise you guys that much? Remember that Brown beat trash-tier candidate Josh Mandel by only 6 points in 2012, and Ohio has veered sharply to the right since then. Yeah, 2018 will likely be a better environment for Dems, but 2012 wasn't exactly a poor environment for Senate Democrats either. I've always thought this race was going to narrow. I'd be way more shocked at Brown winning by double digits than I would be at him winning by 4.

Right now it's an outlier. Every other poll has had Brown double digits