TN-SEN (NBC/Marist): Bredesen+2 (user search)
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  TN-SEN (NBC/Marist): Bredesen+2 (search mode)
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Author Topic: TN-SEN (NBC/Marist): Bredesen+2  (Read 12889 times)
Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,841
« on: September 06, 2018, 04:06:30 PM »
It is interesting that to note that Bredesen is doing better with RVs (ahead by 4) than with LVs (ahead by 2).

That won't be typical in most states, but that is an indication of the way TN is different from most states with competitive Senate races, and part of why it could end up breaking differently from other races at the end.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,841
« Reply #1 on: September 06, 2018, 04:10:10 PM »

That is definitely possible (and more likely than Bredesen by 10, I would say), but definitely not clear.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,841
« Reply #2 on: September 06, 2018, 04:12:47 PM »

I know.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,841
« Reply #3 on: September 06, 2018, 04:31:57 PM »
Quote from: SnowLabrador on September 06, 2018, 04:29:56 PM
This is going to be a very close race. I know I sound like Captain Obvious here, but still.

That is not obvious at all. There have been lots of races in the past where polls have been close and then the actual results are not close. Substantial polling error does happen for various reasons, and indeed is the norm to a significant extent.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,841
« Reply #4 on: September 06, 2018, 04:35:09 PM »
Average error of Senate polls taken in August

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So this could easily end up being something like Bredesen +10 or Blackburn +6 (or more in either direction) by the time votes are actually counted.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,841
« Reply #5 on: September 06, 2018, 11:17:55 PM »
So I am reading elsewhere that Marist does not weight by education. Because college educated voters are generally more likely to get polled, that could mean that the sample may be a bit too Dem friendly.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,841
« Reply #6 on: September 06, 2018, 11:59:51 PM »

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