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Author Topic: GA-UGA (AJC/WSB-TV): Abrams/Kemp tied at 45  (Read 1735 times)
Fremont Speaker ON Progressive
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« on: September 06, 2018, 05:04:46 pm »

Stacey Abrams (D) 45
Brian Kemp (R) 45

https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/dead-even-ajc-channel-poll-shows-georgia-governor-race-tied/h0XFd9yauWEe1xeizfnxiL/

Crosstabs: https://s3.amazonaws.com/ajc-isabetai/polls/AJC+Election+Poll+Results.pdf
« Last Edit: September 06, 2018, 05:17:37 pm by ON Progressive »Logged
Pericles
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« Reply #1 on: September 06, 2018, 05:06:06 pm »

Ugh Georgia will disappoint again, won't it?
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RFKFan68
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« Reply #2 on: September 06, 2018, 05:21:42 pm »

Ugh Georgia will disappoint again, won't it?
No. The people who make up the ingredients of Abrams's secret sauce won't be polled.  Republicans are going to be mortified on Election Night when Abrams is leading and Fulton and DeKalb haven't even fully reported yet. Tongue
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Joni Ernst 20∞
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« Reply #3 on: September 06, 2018, 05:26:03 pm »

Toss-up, but I doubt she’ll crack 50% in November.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #4 on: September 06, 2018, 05:27:06 pm »

Other races like ME, and Iowa and NV needs to be polled aside from FL and GA
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Holmes
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« Reply #5 on: September 06, 2018, 05:35:05 pm »

Other races like ME, and Iowa and NV needs to be polled aside from FL and GA

It's not like we get many GA polls to begin with.
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« Reply #6 on: September 06, 2018, 05:35:25 pm »

The favorables (Kemp-40/32, Abrams-34/21) and the high undecided vote (10 percent) indicate a rather fluid situation here.  I think Abrams could have the advantage to come out ahead on Election Day, but I remain skeptical that she can break 50+1.
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Politician
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« Reply #7 on: September 06, 2018, 05:35:35 pm »

Jason Carter 2.0, obviously. /s

This is a tossup and could basically go either way, and if Abrams wins, she'll almost certainly get 50% on election night.
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RFKFan68
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« Reply #8 on: September 06, 2018, 05:36:43 pm »

Jason Carter 2.0, obviously. /s

This is a tossup and could basically go either way, and if Abrams wins, she'll almost certainly get 50% on election night.
At this point I’m predicting 51-47-2 Abrams
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Fremont Speaker ON Progressive
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« Reply #9 on: September 06, 2018, 05:39:01 pm »

This could be considered encouraging for Abrams when you look at the crosstabs:

Black voters are more undecided than white voters, younger voters are more undecided than older ones, Dems are more undecided than Republicans.
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« Reply #10 on: September 06, 2018, 05:42:06 pm »

I'm pretty close to moving this to Toss-Up.
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Senate/SCOTUS/EC Delenda Est 👁
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« Reply #11 on: September 06, 2018, 05:59:51 pm »

Ugh Georgia will disappoint again, won't it?
No. The people who make up the ingredients of Abrams's secret sauce won't be polled.  Republicans are going to be mortified on Election Night when Abrams is leading and Fulton and DeKalb haven't even fully reported yet. Tongue

It does make sense to think that Abrams could outperform polls if they are using an ordinary midterm LV model, because that is clearly not the focus of her campaign. It has the potential to be like Obama Iowa Caucuses '08 where most polls (except Selzer) had Obama down because of their turnout model.
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« Reply #12 on: September 06, 2018, 07:15:53 pm »

Eh, this probably goes to a runoff.
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Pollster
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« Reply #13 on: September 06, 2018, 08:37:54 pm »

Abrams winning independents 45/30.
Her favorability among independents is 48/11.
Kemp's is 26/41.
Trump's approval among them is 25/63.

Abrams needs these margins to hold.
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« Reply #14 on: September 06, 2018, 08:50:48 pm »

Ugh Georgia will disappoint again, won't it?
No. The people who make up the ingredients of Abrams's secret sauce won't be polled.  Republicans are going to be mortified on Election Night when Abrams is leading and Fulton and DeKalb haven't even fully reported yet. Tongue

That sounds like something Trump supporters were saying before the election lol
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« Reply #15 on: September 06, 2018, 08:53:30 pm »

Tossup>>>>>>>>>>>>Tossup.

At least we FINALLY got some polling out of this race!!!
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olowakandi
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« Reply #16 on: September 06, 2018, 08:54:30 pm »

Summer polls tend to favor Dems, we will see polls continue to tighten as Dems resurrect the 279 blue wall, and Jealous will make a comeback
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #17 on: September 06, 2018, 10:49:33 pm »

Obviously Abrams and Kemp will both get at least 45%. My guess is they stay knotted up like this for a while, maybe even the entire race, but Abrams' biggest obstacle remains the fact that she needs a majority rather than a plurality. The fact that Georgia "undecideds" always seem to break Republican doesn't help matters either (shout out to Adam Griffin if he wants to go on a rant about this. Tongue)

Lean R
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #18 on: September 06, 2018, 10:52:19 pm »

New Poll: Georgia Governor by Atlanta Journal Constitution on 2018-09-04

Summary: D: 45%, R: 45%, U: 10%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #19 on: September 06, 2018, 11:02:07 pm »

I am keeping it as a lean R. I think it'll be much closer than typical elections, but I think Kemp seeks out a victory.
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« Reply #20 on: September 06, 2018, 11:12:30 pm »

Good news for Abrams. Hope she pulls it off.
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #21 on: September 06, 2018, 11:37:00 pm »

Just wondering.  Will women out vote men by 10% in this gubernatorial race?
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Pericles
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« Reply #22 on: September 07, 2018, 02:01:07 am »

Maybe it's just me but if Abrams is getting 50% she should be ahead of Kemp in the polls. A tie portends a runoff.
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Fmr. Pres. Griff
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« Reply #23 on: September 07, 2018, 03:39:46 am »

The fact that Georgia "undecideds" always seem to break Republican doesn't help matters either (shout out to Adam Griffin if he wants to go on a rant about this. Tongue)

Don't get me started on the suburbrons!

Anyway, this poll looks like what you'd expect with a couple of months remaining. GA Democrats who are somewhat competitive tend to have two periods where they peak/might lead in polling - one around the time school starts back and one a few weeks before the election (right before the undecideds start sticking the knife in). Right now, we're smack in the middle of those two periods. Most decent polls tend to account for new voters in their methodologies but if the share of the electorate that is usually first-time/irregular voters (10-15%) ends up being substantially higher, then it obviously wouldn't be reflective. As-is, though, this poll looks pretty average for Democrats in comparison to recent past cycles.
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This thread went completely off the rails. Exactly as Griffin would have wanted.
RFKFan68
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« Reply #24 on: September 07, 2018, 08:09:09 am »

Maybe it's just me but if Abrams is getting 50% she should be ahead of Kemp in the polls. A tie portends a runoff.
This sample is whiter than the actual electorate will be in November and also doesn’t have enough infrequent and non-voters (the type of voter Team Abrams is going after hard).
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