NYT LIVE POLL THREAD:

[MT Treasurer]

The NV poll has got to be rigged, because someone just said that they're voting for Rosen.

[Roblox]

The NV poll has got to be rigged, because someone just said that they're voting for Rosen.

Just wait until they do Montana-I bet they'll have two, or even three people voting for Rosedale. Insanity, I tell you.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

When are dems triaging Rosen?

[MT Treasurer]

Heller lead down to +62 (80-18). The 18% are probably only saying Rosen because they feel sorry for her.

[MillennialModerate]

When are dems triaging Rosen?

I know this is sarcasm but I was called a joke for saying R’s hold this.

[diptheriadan]

Not a single answered call in Clarksville. Odd.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

all jokes aside, I wouldn't be surprised at all if Dean Heller beats Rosen by a slight margin

[BudgieForce]

Polling Nevada is a fool's errand.

[RI]

NV sample is 71% women so far. lol

[DataGuy]

Cruz is leading whites 66-32 now, a more realistic number, but it looks like he's still a bit overestimated among minorities.

[Beet]

These NY Times Upshot polls are the most R friendly group of polls I've seen the whole cycle.

[ON Progressive]

When are dems triaging Rosen?

I know this is sarcasm but I was called a joke for saying R’s hold this.

They've only polled 25 people dude.

[DataGuy]

I predict the TX-SEN poll will finish at Cruz +7.

[Brittain33]

When are dems triaging Rosen?

I know this is sarcasm but I was called a joke for saying R’s hold this.

No offense, but now you'll be called a joke for drawing inferences when MoE = 50%.

[RI]

Cruz is leading whites 66-32 now, a more realistic number, but it looks like he's still a bit overestimated among minorities.

On the other hand, the TN crosstabs look pretty bang-on

[BudgieForce]

These NY Times Upshot polls are the most R friendly group of polls I've seen the whole cycle.

I know it's not their fault, but these polls tend to seem Republican friendly.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Cruz is now winning the Trumpjugend (i.e. 18-29 year olds) 89%-11% - 7 respondents. Who knew young people hate Beto so much?

Beto doing best with Seniors, who he is winning 53-47.

So the White crosstab has evened out a bit, but the age crosstabs in particular (and also Hispanic) are still very funky.

[DataGuy]

Cruz is leading whites 66-32 now, a more realistic number, but it looks like he's still a bit overestimated among minorities.

On the other hand, the TN crosstabs look pretty bang-on

Yes, they do. The one crosstab that is actually verifiable is the "Primary vote" crosstab, which currently shows that 56% of respondents voted in the Republican primary and 26% voted in the Democratic primary. According to the actual numbers, Republicans got about 68% of the two-party primary vote, and 56/(56+26) is, well ... 68%.

Anything can happen of course, but it does seem like this one might be slipping away for Bredesen. Blackburn has a 13% defection rate among Republican primary voters so far and is still leading by 14.

[TarHeelDem]

It's getting hard for me to take the NYT numbers very seriously...

[Vern]

It really too early in these Senate races polls, but if the numbers say the same, we might be seeing a trend to the Republicans. But like I said, it way too early to tell.

[MAINEiac4434]

Polling NY-01 during a Red Sox/Yankees playoff game probably wasn't the best idea.

[Young Conservative]

In the last week, the NYT/Siena polls have definitely trended toward the GOP. Kavanaugh effect?

[Vern]

In the last week, the NYT/Siena polls have definitely trended toward the GOP. Kavanaugh effect?

Maybe, but I just think its just more people are starting to pay attention.

[RI]

This is the first wave of polls taken entirely post-confirmation, and they are southern states. Doesn't prove anything, obviously.

[BudgieForce]

I genuinely think a lot of these congressional race polls are off. That's the risk you take by doing so many polls in such a short time frame, but I'm seriously at the point where I think these call centers are having trouble reaching democratic voters.