Religion and the 2004 Election

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Introduction

The other day I was looking a some religion figures by county and I had an idea.

I will list which way all the counties where Church X or Church Y is the largest denomination and list who they voted for. I might get round to doing a more detailed version and maybe one using the same methods, but for ancestory instead.
Put simply, this will just be a scorecard (or dataset or list or whatever you feel like calling it) that will hopefully give some indication of how different religious groups voted in the 2004 election. It isn't going to be precise and probably won't be especially accurate in places becuase of the methodology used, but I hope it'll be interesting anyway. This should be covered by a couple of edits over a few days...
It is possible that I've made a few mistakes along the way

Maine

Catholics are the largest denomination in all counties. Kerry took 13 and Bush 2.

New Hampshire

Catholics are the largest denomination in all counties. Kerry took 6 and Bush 4.

Vermont

Catholic: Kerry 12 out of 13, Bush 1 out of 13
United Church of Christ: Kerry 1 out of 1

Massachusetts

Catholics are the largest denomination in all counties. Kerry won all counties (14)

Rhode Island

Catholics are the largest denomination in all counties. Kerry won all counties (5)

Connecticut

Catholics are the largest denomination in all counties. Kerry took 7, Bush took 1

New York

Catholics are the largest denomination in all counties. Kerry took 22, Bush took 41

New Jersey

Catholics are the largest denomination in all counties. Kerry took 12, Bush took 9

Pennsylvania

Catholic: Kerry 13 out of 48, Bush 35 out of 48
Methodist: Bush 15 out of 15
Lutheran: Bush 3 out of 3
Mennonite: Bush 1 out of 1

Delaware

Catholic: Kerry 1 out of 2, Bush 1 out of 2
Methodist: Bush 1 out of 1

Maryland

Catholic: Kerry 6 out of 17, Bush 11 out of 17
Methodist: Bush 6 out of 6
Lutheran: Bush 1 out of 1

Virginia

somewhat approx due to those independent cities

Baptist: Bush 73 out of 85, Kerry 12 out of 85
Methodist: Bush 15 out of 17, Kerry 2 out of 17
Catholic: Kerry 5 out of 8, Bush 3 out of 8
Presbytarian: Bush 2 out of 2
Lutheran: Bush 1 out of 1
Restoration Movement: Bush 1 out of 1
Adventist: Bush 1 out of 1

West Virginia

Baptist: Bush 17 out of 23, Kerry 6 out of 23
Methodist: Bush 23 out of 24, Kerry 1 out of 24
Catholic: Bush 4 out of 5, Kerry 1 out of 5
Restoration Movement: Bush 2 out of 2
Pentecostal: Kerry 1 out of 1

Next: NC down to FL I think

[KEmperor]

I fail to see what you are trying to prove here.  Catholics are highly concentrated in the Northeast, which tended to go for Kerry.  But in the rural counties that went for Bush, apparently Catholics also voted for Bush.

Also, you list all counties in many states as having Catholics as the largest denomination.  That is probably true, but do they actually make up the majority?  I'm sure if you add together all the protestant sects(Episcopalians, Baptists, etc.)  you will find that they outnumber the Catholics.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I fail to see what you are trying to prove here.

Not trying to prove anything

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True but not really the point

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Episcopalians and Baptists are as different from each other as they are different from Catholics.

[muon2]

Also, you list all counties in many states as having Catholics as the largest denomination.  That is probably true, but do they actually make up the majority?  I'm sure if you add together all the protestant sects(Episcopalians, Baptists, etc.)  you will find that they outnumber the Catholics.

Episcopalians and Baptists are as different from each other as they are different from Catholics.

It would be appropriate to place the "mainline" protestants together. That includes the Episcopalians, Methodists, Presbyterians, UCCers, much of the Lutheran groups, as well as some smaller denominations. They all share very similar theology, but differ primarily on their polity, or interal governance.

[angus]

It would be appropriate to place the "mainline" protestants together. That includes the Episcopalians, Methodists, Presbyterians, UCCers, much of the Lutheran groups, as well as some smaller denominations. They all share very similar theology, but differ primarily on their polity, or interal governance.

you gotta figure al's got that down pretty well.  evangelical prots, mainline prots, catholics have different voting proclivities as well.  mainline protestants used to go for repbulicans, while catholics and evangelicals went for democrats.  nowadays, mainline protestants often vote democrat and evangelical protestants vote republican.  I suppose that is a gross oversimplification.  and catholics, once a reliable bloc for the democrats, have been moving toward the GOP.  (whether you view it as republicans chipping away at Catholic support, slowly, or the support for democrats eroding, slowly, probably depends on whether you're a fan of folks like Karl Rove, or just don't like the DNC, as they're two different things.)  in fact, I think I read that in 2000, about 51% of catholics went for Bush, so 2000, and not 2004 was the tipping election, or the election when a majority of catholics went the other way.  As Al suggests, the support may be swinging back to the DNC, however.  I view this less as Democrats doing well, and more as Republicans doing poorly.  By the way, Al, I though you weren't into pushing the politics of ethnicity and division, but rather an idealized moralistic socialdemocrat version of statism in which a rising tide lifts all boats.  But as long as you're delving into religiocentricity or ethnoreligious voting enclaves, give us a stat or two on hindus, muslims, jews, buddhists and taoists while you're at it.  I'd read that the GOP lost big in the muslim community between '00 and '04 (Any breakdown between sunni, shia, and wahabbi?); that the jews remained pretty steady at 25 and 75 for republican and democrat, respectively, with hassidic and orthodox jew remaining two of the most reliable GOP blocs, and reform jew being on of the most reliable DNC voting blocs; and hindus pretty steady at about 66 to 33 respectively (Gonesha is still a blue elephant.  the free association can't be bad for the GOP.)  Never read any stats on Taoists or Buddhists.  And, of course, Confucianists don't vote.  At least none of them I know vote.  My guess is that not too many taoists or buddhists vote either, which is probably why there's not enough of a sample to do stats.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

By the way, Al, I though you weren't into pushing the politics of ethnicity and division,

Just because I dislike that sort of politics doesn't mean it shouldn't be analysised

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I'll take that as a compliment

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I'll see what I can find

[nclib]

Interesting, Al. I look forward to seeing more of this.

[Ebowed]

Interesting, Al. I look forward to seeing more of this.

^^^

Very interesting stuff.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Thanks to both of you
I'm hoping to get some more done tomorrow

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

New York

Catholics are the largest denomination in all counties. Kerry took 22, Bush took 41

Kerry won 21.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Also, you list all counties in many states as having Catholics as the largest denomination.  That is probably true, but do they actually make up the majority?  I'm sure if you add together all the protestant sects(Episcopalians, Baptists, etc.)  you will find that they outnumber the Catholics.

Episcopalians and Baptists are as different from each other as they are different from Catholics.

It would be appropriate to place the "mainline" protestants together. That includes the Episcopalians, Methodists, Presbyterians, UCCers, much of the Lutheran groups, as well as some smaller denominations. They all share very similar theology, but differ primarily on their polity, or interal governance.

Agreed. That's how I like to classify things considering that my Lutheran denomination has way more in common with say the United Methodists (mainline Methodists) than the far more conservative Lutheran denoms (Missouri and Wisconsin synod).

[Gustaf]

The biggest problem is really that Bush won a lot more counties than Kerry did...still, interesting to see. I didn't know Catholics dominated like that in states like Maine and New Hampshire, I thought they were concentrated in RI and MA.

[they don't love you like i love you]

The biggest problem is really that Bush won a lot more counties than Kerry did...still, interesting to see. I didn't know Catholics dominated like that in states like Maine and New Hampshire, I thought they were concentrated in RI and MA.

They don't really "dominate", they just have the plurality. Also true for about half the counties in Minnesota, actually Catholics have a plurality in Minnesota (Lutherans of course being a very close runner up)

[YoMartin]

This is quite interesting. I would only say that you need to add other elements in the picture. By only considering religion you could end up explaining the differences by the wrong reason. If Northeast catholics vote Democrat but Southern catholics vote Republican, then religion is not the cause for their voting behaviour. Also, the plurality of voters in certain county may be catholic, and candidate X may win that county, but maybe all the catholics voted for candidate Y while all the other people voted for the winning X. That´s the problem with aggregate data, which can only be solved with rather complex statistical models, or by just using polls.

[Nym90]

This was a very interesting thread, and I hope Al finishes the whole country eventually.