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November 17, 2019, 12:03:43 pm
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  2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  Emerson-IA: Hubbell +5
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Author Topic: Emerson-IA: Hubbell +5  (Read 3217 times)
RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #50 on: September 13, 2018, 10:52:30 pm »

Emerson= trash
Still give Hubble a slight edge
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2016
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« Reply #51 on: September 14, 2018, 06:25:47 pm »

It's nice to see Hubbell in the lead but I can't take this poll too seriously. I wish I could though. Those disapproval numbers for Trump are glorious!

So, you really believe Trump has a 37/53 JA Rating in Iowa while per Suffolk he has a 46/50 JA in Nevada?

This doesn't pass the smell test as Iowa is much more friendly to Trump than Nevada.

Emerson is doing big garbage here IMO.
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Badger
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« Reply #52 on: September 15, 2018, 07:24:26 pm »

It's nice to see Hubbell in the lead but I can't take this poll too seriously. I wish I could though. Those disapproval numbers for Trump are glorious!

So, you really believe Trump has a 37/53 JA Rating in Iowa while per Suffolk he has a 46/50 JA in Nevada?

This doesn't pass the smell test as Iowa is much more friendly to Trump than Nevada.

Emerson is doing big garbage here IMO.

Comparing Iowa to Nevada is comparing apples to oranges. I'm sure Trump has a lower approval rating in Nevada than Iowa, but couldn't it be that the Suffolk was wrong in that respect?

That said, I suspect Trump is doing at least somewhat better in Iowa than the negative 16 approval rating this poll gives him.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #53 on: September 15, 2018, 08:19:08 pm »

The GOP assumed Iowa was leaning red, this state is still purple
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Zaybay
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« Reply #54 on: September 15, 2018, 08:33:45 pm »

It's nice to see Hubbell in the lead but I can't take this poll too seriously. I wish I could though. Those disapproval numbers for Trump are glorious!

So, you really believe Trump has a 37/53 JA Rating in Iowa while per Suffolk he has a 46/50 JA in Nevada?

This doesn't pass the smell test as Iowa is much more friendly to Trump than Nevada.

Emerson is doing big garbage here IMO.

Not that far fetched. Both Morning Consult and IA pollsters like Selzar found similar results. The thing is that while IA went to Trump, and by a large margin, its still made up of historically Democratic, WWC people. The state is experiencing the same snap-back that the entire Rust Belt is seeing, and its perfectly logical that this state, being hit by tariffs as well, would go against him.

NV, on the other hand, is rather inelastic, and has lines drawn. You cant get Trump's approval down below a certain point, because both the Democratic and Republican bases are cooked in. Unlike IA, which has swung by large margins, NV stays rather static, and has only swung hard once, in 2014 for popular governor Sandoval.

Anyway, the idea that IA is going hard anti-Trump is not one with no logic.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #55 on: September 18, 2018, 12:51:22 pm »

If that WI poll is accurate, I think Hubbell being a little ahead makes sense, even though this is Emerson.
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North Fulton Swing
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« Reply #56 on: September 18, 2018, 01:16:57 pm »

The polls in the Midwest (Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan, Iowa) clearly indicate that the Trump bloom is off.
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Scottholes 2.0
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« Reply #57 on: September 18, 2018, 03:14:24 pm »

The Trump effect is alive and well in the midterms!
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #58 on: September 18, 2018, 05:56:26 pm »

If that WI poll is accurate, I think Hubbell being a little ahead makes sense, even though this is Emerson.

The Selzer poll having Reynolds ahead by 5 in January was why I've had this as a toss up for a while actually. If she could only lead Hubbell by 5 when he was completely unknown, it seems logical it would be a toss up once his name recognition went up.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #59 on: September 18, 2018, 06:43:32 pm »

The polls in the Midwest (Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan, Iowa) clearly indicate that the Trump bloom is off.

But I thought these were all safe R states now!?
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Scottholes 2.0
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« Reply #60 on: September 18, 2018, 08:53:58 pm »

The polls in the Midwest (Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan, Iowa) clearly indicate that the Trump bloom is off.

But I thought these were all safe R states now!?

The Midwest is now seeing what voting R is doing to them.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #61 on: September 19, 2018, 12:39:46 am »

The polls in the Midwest (Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan, Iowa) clearly indicate that the Trump bloom is off.

But I thought these were all safe R states now!?

The Midwest is now seeing what voting R is doing to them.

At least they seem able to learn from their mistakes, unlike Southern whites.

Yeah, we thought they learned in 2006/2008 too. Just wait for the next Democratic president and the GOP will be their saviors again in the next midterm.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #62 on: September 19, 2018, 06:30:07 pm »

The polls in the Midwest (Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan, Iowa) clearly indicate that the Trump bloom is off.

But I thought these were all safe R states now!?

The Midwest is now seeing what voting R is doing to them.

At least they seem able to learn from their mistakes, unlike Southern whites.

Yeah, we thought they learned in 2006/2008 too. Just wait for the next Democratic president and the GOP will be their saviors again in the next midterm.

True. Being swingy doesn't necessarily mean that they are being rational.
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