Emerson-IA: Hubbell +5
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  Emerson-IA: Hubbell +5
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Author Topic: Emerson-IA: Hubbell +5  (Read 5306 times)
mds32
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« Reply #25 on: September 10, 2018, 01:33:59 PM »

What a crappy poll. Everyone hear raves that Gravis is trash yet we are giving Emerson a thumbs up? They don't even push their undecideds in any way.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #26 on: September 10, 2018, 02:03:28 PM »

Not meaningful with both candidates way below 40%. But 31% is a pretty low floor for an incumbent who was not challenged in the primary.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #27 on: September 10, 2018, 02:09:08 PM »

She passed that restrictive abortion rights bill and she hasn't been elected in her own right, except with Branstand. She wasn't gonna win a huge blowout
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Canis
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« Reply #28 on: September 10, 2018, 02:11:46 PM »

imagine drawing conclusions from a poll where neither candidate is above 40%.
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hofoid
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« Reply #29 on: September 10, 2018, 02:33:11 PM »

Shy Tory effect here. Those undecides still break heavily Reynolds' way.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #30 on: September 10, 2018, 02:36:33 PM »

It will be refreshing to see Iowa's (and the Midwest's in general) total reversal in characterization as soon as they vote for literally one Democrat again. Tongue

More seriously, Iowa was and will be (for the foreseeable future) a swing state.  Not a surprising poll.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #31 on: September 10, 2018, 02:36:55 PM »

imagine drawing conclusions from a poll where neither candidate is above 40%.

According to Nate Silver's "Myth of 50%", incumbent Governors and Senators can typically add 6.5% to an early prediction of how much vote they will get against an unnamed challenger. With 44% the chance of getting re-elected is just over 50%. With 43% the chance of getting re-elected is just under 50%. Chances rapidly approach one if one is above 44% or zero if the beginning number is below 43%. This holds true in both wave and non-wave elections, and it has held true in elections from 2010 to 2014. The assumption is that someone already elected has shown an ability to get a significant gain in electoral campaign from campaigning. This pattern is unreliable for appointed Senators or Governors who have never shown evidence that they can ever be elected.

But it is no longer early, so the incumbent should have numbers of at least 47% against an opponent by now to have a reasonable chance of winning.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/myth-of-incumbent-50-rule/
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hofoid
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« Reply #32 on: September 10, 2018, 02:38:28 PM »

It will be refreshing to see Iowa's (and the Midwest's in general) total reversal in characterization as soon as they vote for literally one Democrat again. Tongue

More seriously, Iowa was and will be (for the foreseeable future) a swing state.  Not a surprising poll.
Dead cat bounce at best. National Dems have shown they would rather flush away their Midwestern hopes down the toilet to chase billionaire trophy wives in Atlanta and Phoenix.
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Scottholes 2.0
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« Reply #33 on: September 10, 2018, 02:40:25 PM »

Good for Hubbell.

I'd be shocked if a Democrat wins the governor's seat in Iowa and incumbent Scott Walker wins Wisconsin simultaneously.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #34 on: September 10, 2018, 02:49:51 PM »

It will be refreshing to see Iowa's (and the Midwest's in general) total reversal in characterization as soon as they vote for literally one Democrat again. Tongue

More seriously, Iowa was and will be (for the foreseeable future) a swing state.  Not a surprising poll.
Dead cat bounce at best. National Dems have shown they would rather flush away their Midwestern hopes down the toilet to chase billionaire trophy wives in Atlanta and Phoenix.

I used to think that, but all the districts that are Clinton GOP districts Dems need to pickup are in IA, MN, IL, WI,  and Pa
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #35 on: September 10, 2018, 02:51:32 PM »

It will be refreshing to see Iowa's (and the Midwest's in general) total reversal in characterization as soon as they vote for literally one Democrat again. Tongue

More seriously, Iowa was and will be (for the foreseeable future) a swing state.  Not a surprising poll.
Dead cat bounce at best. National Dems have shown they would rather flush away their Midwestern hopes down the toilet to chase billionaire trophy wives in Atlanta and Phoenix.

1) Everyone's assumption that Iowa is a populist haven just because it went Obama-Trump is kind of strange to me ... well, not really from you.

2) Citation needed on that incredibly odd last part about trophy wives.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #36 on: September 10, 2018, 02:54:24 PM »

It will be refreshing to see Iowa's (and the Midwest's in general) total reversal in characterization as soon as they vote for literally one Democrat again. Tongue

More seriously, Iowa was and will be (for the foreseeable future) a swing state.  Not a surprising poll.
Dead cat bounce at best. National Dems have shown they would rather flush away their Midwestern hopes down the toilet to chase billionaire trophy wives in Atlanta and Phoenix.

1) Everyone's assumption that Iowa is a populist haven just because it went Obama-Trump is kind of strange to me ... well, not really from you.

2) Citation needed on that incredibly odd last part about trophy wives.

OC understood.  What's wrong with you?
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hofoid
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« Reply #37 on: September 10, 2018, 02:55:40 PM »

It will be refreshing to see Iowa's (and the Midwest's in general) total reversal in characterization as soon as they vote for literally one Democrat again. Tongue

More seriously, Iowa was and will be (for the foreseeable future) a swing state.  Not a surprising poll.
Dead cat bounce at best. National Dems have shown they would rather flush away their Midwestern hopes down the toilet to chase billionaire trophy wives in Atlanta and Phoenix.

1) Everyone's assumption that Iowa is a populist haven just because it went Obama-Trump is kind of strange to me ... well, not really from you.

2) Citation needed on that incredibly odd last part about trophy wives.
Of course Iowa is a strong populist state. It had once voted reliably Dem without any real big cities or non-whites.

Second of all, the Dem embrace of pet causes of rich housewives like straw bans, gun registries, and other token social justice silliness have alienated the Midwest. I personally wish the Second Amendment was repealed, but I  know that won't play politically right now.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #38 on: September 10, 2018, 02:57:16 PM »

It will be refreshing to see Iowa's (and the Midwest's in general) total reversal in characterization as soon as they vote for literally one Democrat again. Tongue

More seriously, Iowa was and will be (for the foreseeable future) a swing state.  Not a surprising poll.
Dead cat bounce at best. National Dems have shown they would rather flush away their Midwestern hopes down the toilet to chase billionaire trophy wives in Atlanta and Phoenix.

1) Everyone's assumption that Iowa is a populist haven just because it went Obama-Trump is kind of strange to me ... well, not really from you.

2) Citation needed on that incredibly odd last part about trophy wives.

Sun belt billionaires will create the new #permanentmajority for Democrats.

Eat your heart out Midwestern "WWC" #populists Purple heart.
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hofoid
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« Reply #39 on: September 10, 2018, 03:00:23 PM »

It will be refreshing to see Iowa's (and the Midwest's in general) total reversal in characterization as soon as they vote for literally one Democrat again. Tongue

More seriously, Iowa was and will be (for the foreseeable future) a swing state.  Not a surprising poll.
Dead cat bounce at best. National Dems have shown they would rather flush away their Midwestern hopes down the toilet to chase billionaire trophy wives in Atlanta and Phoenix.

1) Everyone's assumption that Iowa is a populist haven just because it went Obama-Trump is kind of strange to me ... well, not really from you.

2) Citation needed on that incredibly odd last part about trophy wives.

Sun belt billionaires will create the new #permanentmajority for Democrats.

Eat your heart out Midwestern "WWC" #populists Purple heart.
Good to know 1%ers like you finally feel comfy among the Dems.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #40 on: September 10, 2018, 03:05:12 PM »

It will be refreshing to see Iowa's (and the Midwest's in general) total reversal in characterization as soon as they vote for literally one Democrat again. Tongue

More seriously, Iowa was and will be (for the foreseeable future) a swing state.  Not a surprising poll.
Dead cat bounce at best. National Dems have shown they would rather flush away their Midwestern hopes down the toilet to chase billionaire trophy wives in Atlanta and Phoenix.

1) Everyone's assumption that Iowa is a populist haven just because it went Obama-Trump is kind of strange to me ... well, not really from you.

2) Citation needed on that incredibly odd last part about trophy wives.

Sun belt billionaires will create the new #permanentmajority for Democrats.

Eat your heart out Midwestern "WWC" #populists Purple heart.
Good to know 1%ers like you finally feel comfy among the Dems.

LOL, I wish.
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Politician
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« Reply #41 on: September 10, 2018, 03:32:07 PM »

Shy Tory effect here. Those undecides still break heavily Reynolds' way.
Much like the shy Tories in Virginia and Alabama?
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Rookie Yinzer
RFKFan68
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« Reply #42 on: September 10, 2018, 03:54:05 PM »

Sun belt billionaires will create the new #permanentmajority for Democrats.

Eat your heart out Midwestern "WWC" #populists Purple heart.
You are so annoying (in a good way). LMAO!
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #43 on: September 10, 2018, 04:03:29 PM »

Shy Tory effect here. Those undecides still break heavily Reynolds' way.
Much like the shy Tories in Virginia and Alabama?

To be fair, they had every reason to be shy in these contests.
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96FJV
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« Reply #44 on: September 10, 2018, 05:51:48 PM »

I see Democrats doing well in Iowa in November. They could pick up the 1st and 3rd district (I pray Steve King loses). They could carry Hubbell over the hump.
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Scottholes 2.0
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« Reply #45 on: September 10, 2018, 05:55:39 PM »

I see Democrats doing well in Iowa in November. They could pick up the 1st and 3rd district (I pray Steve King loses). They could carry Hubbell over the hump.

Steve King's district is considered solid R, right?

Anyway, I cannot stand Steve King and have always hoped for that racist to go into oblivion!
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Zaybay
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« Reply #46 on: September 10, 2018, 05:57:01 PM »

I see Democrats doing well in Iowa in November. They could pick up the 1st and 3rd district (I pray Steve King loses). They could carry Hubbell over the hump.

Steve King's district is considered solid R, right?

Anyway, I cannot stand Steve King and have always hoped for that racist to go into oblivion!
Its likely R, thanks to King's declining popularity, the swingyness of the district, and the fact that the tariffs are hitting the state hard.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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« Reply #47 on: September 10, 2018, 05:57:23 PM »

I see Democrats doing well in Iowa in November. They could pick up the 1st and 3rd district (I pray Steve King loses). They could carry Hubbell over the hump.

Steve King's district is considered solid R, right?

Anyway, I cannot stand Steve King and have always hoped for that racist to go into oblivion!

Yeah, it's considered Solid R for the most part. It's a shame too, because King deserves to be absolutely destroyed.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #48 on: September 10, 2018, 06:30:11 PM »

The election would be over if Dems win Iowa cause a BIDEN or Booker with Tim Ryan wouldn't need VA or OH to carry the day in 2020. It just shows you how Pence isnt valuable like he was in 2016, with coal corridor.😀
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #49 on: September 10, 2018, 07:15:09 PM »

It's nice to see Hubbell in the lead but I can't take this poll too seriously. I wish I could though. Those disapproval numbers for Trump are glorious!
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