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Author Topic: Emerson-IA: Hubbell +5  (Read 2250 times)
Former Senator Zaybay
Zaybay
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« on: September 10, 2018, 11:36:57 am »

Im less interested in the general numbers, too many undecideds. Instead, Im looking at the Trump approvals, which are more telling. If hes around 35%, then hes not winning the state, the Dems are taking 3 seats, and Hubbell is favoured.
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Former Senator Zaybay
Zaybay
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Posts: 4,840
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E: -7.25, S: -6.50

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« Reply #1 on: September 10, 2018, 05:57:01 pm »

I see Democrats doing well in Iowa in November. They could pick up the 1st and 3rd district (I pray Steve King loses). They could carry Hubbell over the hump.

Steve King's district is considered solid R, right?

Anyway, I cannot stand Steve King and have always hoped for that racist to go into oblivion!
Its likely R, thanks to King's declining popularity, the swingyness of the district, and the fact that the tariffs are hitting the state hard.
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Former Senator Zaybay
Zaybay
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Posts: 4,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50

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View Profile
« Reply #2 on: September 15, 2018, 08:33:45 pm »

It's nice to see Hubbell in the lead but I can't take this poll too seriously. I wish I could though. Those disapproval numbers for Trump are glorious!

So, you really believe Trump has a 37/53 JA Rating in Iowa while per Suffolk he has a 46/50 JA in Nevada?

This doesn't pass the smell test as Iowa is much more friendly to Trump than Nevada.

Emerson is doing big garbage here IMO.

Not that far fetched. Both Morning Consult and IA pollsters like Selzar found similar results. The thing is that while IA went to Trump, and by a large margin, its still made up of historically Democratic, WWC people. The state is experiencing the same snap-back that the entire Rust Belt is seeing, and its perfectly logical that this state, being hit by tariffs as well, would go against him.

NV, on the other hand, is rather inelastic, and has lines drawn. You cant get Trump's approval down below a certain point, because both the Democratic and Republican bases are cooked in. Unlike IA, which has swung by large margins, NV stays rather static, and has only swung hard once, in 2014 for popular governor Sandoval.

Anyway, the idea that IA is going hard anti-Trump is not one with no logic.
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