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Author Topic: FL-SurveyUSA/Spectrum News: Gillum +4  (Read 1468 times)
LimoLiberal
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« on: September 11, 2018, 06:32:22 pm »

http://www.mynews13.com/fl/orlando/news/2018/09/11/decision-2018--gillum-and-desantis-to-face-close-race



Gillum leads with independents 42-32.
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« Reply #1 on: September 11, 2018, 06:33:09 pm »

YESSS
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Prolocutor Bagel23
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« Reply #2 on: September 11, 2018, 06:34:26 pm »

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« Reply #3 on: September 11, 2018, 06:39:11 pm »

SurveyUSA is kinda meh but weve seen consistent Gillum leads in every poll
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« Reply #4 on: September 11, 2018, 06:42:37 pm »

So the polls are showing a small but consistent Gillum lead.  But the Bradley effect cannot be discounted.
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Jalaketu West
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« Reply #5 on: September 11, 2018, 06:45:11 pm »

So the polls are showing a small but consistent Gillum lead.  But the Bradley effect cannot be discounted.
The Bradley effect is nonexistent.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #6 on: September 11, 2018, 06:58:43 pm »

Conservatives say that the Gubernatorial map will reflect presidential map, not always, as Nelson is giving strength to GILLUM Momentum😁
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Former Senator Zaybay
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« Reply #7 on: September 11, 2018, 07:03:44 pm »

Gillum has had a consistent lead this whole time, I wonder if this means that perhaps he is favored in this race? Nah, that FBI investigation will bring him down......eventually......any time now



So the polls are showing a small but consistent Gillum lead.  But the Bradley effect cannot be discounted.
The Bradley effect is nonexistent.
Yeah, this doesnt exist
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« Reply #8 on: September 11, 2018, 07:05:43 pm »

Gillum up 10 with independents and 27 with moderates.
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« Reply #9 on: September 11, 2018, 07:23:38 pm »

SurveyUSA is kinda meh but weve seen consistent Gillum leads in every poll

Meh?  I've always thought they were very solid.
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Originally a Rockefeller Republican, then a long-time independent.  Converted to the Democrats in October 2018 out of revulsion at what the Republican party has become.
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« Reply #10 on: September 11, 2018, 07:25:24 pm »

Gillum up 10 with independents and 27 with moderates.

But the pundits told me that progressive Democrats can't win moderates at all.
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« Reply #11 on: September 11, 2018, 07:29:32 pm »

Tilt D, closer to Lean D than Toss-up.
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« Reply #12 on: September 11, 2018, 07:34:08 pm »

So the polls are showing a small but consistent Gillum lead.  But the Bradley effect cannot be discounted.

Yes it can.
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« Reply #13 on: September 11, 2018, 07:34:20 pm »

So the polls are showing a small but consistent Gillum lead.  But the Bradley effect cannot be discounted.
The Bradley effect is nonexistent.

Call it whatever you want--Bradley, Wilder, Shy Tory.  I hope you are right.   But this is Florida.  And take a look at the Vanity Fair article from 11/3/16.  Too bad the author was only partially correct in her assessment; otherwise, we wouldn't be dealing with a President Trump today.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/11/donald-trump-bradley-effect
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« Reply #14 on: September 11, 2018, 08:07:12 pm »

So the polls are showing a small but consistent Gillum lead.  But the Bradley effect cannot be discounted.
The Bradley effect is nonexistent.

Call it whatever you want--Bradley, Wilder, Shy Tory.  I hope you are right.   But this is Florida.  And take a look at the Vanity Fair article from 11/3/16.  Too bad the author was only partially correct in her assessment; otherwise, we wouldn't be dealing with a President Trump today.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/11/donald-trump-bradley-effect
No offense, but this article proves nothing. A black man has won Florida in a statewide contest twice in the past 10 years. Polarization is as high as ever. There is no reason a Republican would lie and say they are voting for Gillum.
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« Reply #15 on: September 11, 2018, 08:14:24 pm »

So the polls are showing a small but consistent Gillum lead.  But the Bradley effect cannot be discounted.
The Bradley effect is nonexistent.

Call it whatever you want--Bradley, Wilder, Shy Tory.  I hope you are right.   But this is Florida.  And take a look at the Vanity Fair article from 11/3/16.  Too bad the author was only partially correct in her assessment; otherwise, we wouldn't be dealing with a President Trump today.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/11/donald-trump-bradley-effect

No Bradley Effect occurred with Obama in Florida.
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« Reply #16 on: September 11, 2018, 08:15:32 pm »

So the polls are showing a small but consistent Gillum lead.  But the Bradley effect cannot be discounted.
The Bradley effect is nonexistent.

Call it whatever you want--Bradley, Wilder, Shy Tory.  I hope you are right.   But this is Florida.  And take a look at the Vanity Fair article from 11/3/16.  Too bad the author was only partially correct in her assessment; otherwise, we wouldn't be dealing with a President Trump today.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/11/donald-trump-bradley-effect

No Bradley Effect occurred with Obama in Florida.

Or anywhere else for that matter.
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« Reply #17 on: September 11, 2018, 08:20:11 pm »

Im skeptical of the Bradley effect. Why would Republican voters need to pretend they arent racist anymore in the age of Trump?
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« Reply #18 on: September 11, 2018, 08:35:46 pm »

Lol the "Bradley effect"? Atlas still trying to convince themselves that Gillum has no chance winning?
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Former Senator Zaybay
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« Reply #19 on: September 11, 2018, 08:41:34 pm »

Lol the "Bradley effect"? Atlas still trying to convince themselves that Gillum has no chance winning?
Yeah, this is really dumb. There is no Bradley effect, or Shy Tory effect, or whatever. Gillum is leading. Deal with it.
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Mondale
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« Reply #20 on: September 11, 2018, 08:56:05 pm »

Lol the "Bradley effect"? Atlas still trying to convince themselves that Gillum has no chance winning?

The Bradley effect probably used to exist in the 80s and 90s but doesn't anymore.

Quote
There is fairly strong academic evidence that the Bradley Effect used to exist back in the 1980s and early 1990s. However, the evidence is just as strong that it does not exist any longer. The people who vouch for the existence of the Bradley Effect are not wrong so much as they are relying on dated evidence.


https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/persistent-myth-of-bradley-effect/
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olowakandi
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« Reply #21 on: September 11, 2018, 08:57:44 pm »

Booker can win FL in 2020, too.
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« Reply #22 on: September 11, 2018, 08:58:50 pm »

So the polls are showing a small but consistent Gillum lead.  But the Bradley effect cannot be discounted.

The Bradley effect has been thoroughly discounted.
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« Reply #23 on: September 11, 2018, 09:02:26 pm »

If anything Gillum is going to overperform.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #24 on: September 11, 2018, 09:05:02 pm »

What's interesting is that this is an LV screen model, as opposed to an RV model.

Although Florida is an extremely tricky State to poll, because of a wide range of Metro Areas, fast changing population and demographic changes (Much like Texas), we are starting to see some interesting numbers in recent polls contrary to political conventional wisdom (CW).

I wonder to what extent the "Medicare for All" part of his platform is resonating among Senior Anglo swing voters, in a State with a high % of retirees that are quite comfortable with Medicare???

https://www.aarp.org/politics-society/government-elections/info-2018/aarp-politico-florida-poll.html
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