Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 24, 2019, 09:12:32 am
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  FL-SurveyUSA/Spectrum News: Gillum +4
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 Print
Author Topic: FL-SurveyUSA/Spectrum News: Gillum +4  (Read 1604 times)
LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,453


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: September 11, 2018, 06:32:22 pm »

http://www.mynews13.com/fl/orlando/news/2018/09/11/decision-2018--gillum-and-desantis-to-face-close-race

Img


Gillum leads with independents 42-32.
Logged
Lou Barletta's Teeth
PittsburghSteel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,072
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: September 11, 2018, 06:33:09 pm »

YESSS
Logged
Prolocutor Bagel23
Bagel23
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,758
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: September 11, 2018, 06:34:26 pm »

Img
Logged
KingSweden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,301
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: September 11, 2018, 06:39:11 pm »

SurveyUSA is kinda meh but we’ve seen consistent Gillum leads in every poll
Logged
North Fulton Democrat
mollybecky
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 709


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: September 11, 2018, 06:42:37 pm »

So the polls are showing a small but consistent Gillum lead.  But the Bradley effect cannot be discounted.
Logged
Socialists are Pro-Choice Fascists
Jalawest2
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,160


Political Matrix
E: -0.96, S: -4.57

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: September 11, 2018, 06:45:11 pm »

So the polls are showing a small but consistent Gillum lead.  But the Bradley effect cannot be discounted.
The Bradley effect is nonexistent.
Logged
olowakandi
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 24,176
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: September 11, 2018, 06:58:43 pm »

Conservatives say that the Gubernatorial map will reflect presidential map, not always, as Nelson is giving strength to GILLUM Momentum😁
Logged
Councilor Zaybay
Zaybay
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,014
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: September 11, 2018, 07:03:44 pm »

Gillum has had a consistent lead this whole time, I wonder if this means that perhaps he is favored in this race? Nah, that FBI investigation will bring him down......eventually......any time now



So the polls are showing a small but consistent Gillum lead.  But the Bradley effect cannot be discounted.
The Bradley effect is nonexistent.
Yeah, this doesnt exist
Logged
Lou Barletta's Teeth
PittsburghSteel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,072
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: September 11, 2018, 07:05:43 pm »

Gillum up 10 with independents and 27 with moderates.
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,544


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: September 11, 2018, 07:23:38 pm »

SurveyUSA is kinda meh but we’ve seen consistent Gillum leads in every poll

Meh?  I've always thought they were very solid.
Logged
Senator ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,637
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: September 11, 2018, 07:25:24 pm »

Gillum up 10 with independents and 27 with moderates.

But the pundits told me that progressive Democrats can't win moderates at all.
Logged
Peters/Daines more vulnerable than Shaheen/Ernst
IndyRep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,766
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: September 11, 2018, 07:29:32 pm »

Tilt D, closer to Lean D than Toss-up.
Logged
The love that set me free
BRTD
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 85,772
Ukraine


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: September 11, 2018, 07:34:08 pm »

So the polls are showing a small but consistent Gillum lead.  But the Bradley effect cannot be discounted.

Yes it can.
Img
Logged
North Fulton Democrat
mollybecky
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 709


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: September 11, 2018, 07:34:20 pm »

So the polls are showing a small but consistent Gillum lead.  But the Bradley effect cannot be discounted.
The Bradley effect is nonexistent.

Call it whatever you want--Bradley, Wilder, Shy Tory.  I hope you are right.   But this is Florida.  And take a look at the Vanity Fair article from 11/3/16.  Too bad the author was only partially correct in her assessment; otherwise, we wouldn't be dealing with a President Trump today.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/11/donald-trump-bradley-effect
Logged
Beto Bro
RFKFan68
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,844
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: September 11, 2018, 08:07:12 pm »

So the polls are showing a small but consistent Gillum lead.  But the Bradley effect cannot be discounted.
The Bradley effect is nonexistent.

Call it whatever you want--Bradley, Wilder, Shy Tory.  I hope you are right.   But this is Florida.  And take a look at the Vanity Fair article from 11/3/16.  Too bad the author was only partially correct in her assessment; otherwise, we wouldn't be dealing with a President Trump today.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/11/donald-trump-bradley-effect
No offense, but this article proves nothing. A black man has won Florida in a statewide contest twice in the past 10 years. Polarization is as high as ever. There is no reason a Republican would lie and say they are voting for Gillum.
Logged
The love that set me free
BRTD
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 85,772
Ukraine


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: September 11, 2018, 08:14:24 pm »

So the polls are showing a small but consistent Gillum lead.  But the Bradley effect cannot be discounted.
The Bradley effect is nonexistent.

Call it whatever you want--Bradley, Wilder, Shy Tory.  I hope you are right.   But this is Florida.  And take a look at the Vanity Fair article from 11/3/16.  Too bad the author was only partially correct in her assessment; otherwise, we wouldn't be dealing with a President Trump today.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/11/donald-trump-bradley-effect

No Bradley Effect occurred with Obama in Florida.
Logged
Badger
badger
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 22,158
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: September 11, 2018, 08:15:32 pm »

So the polls are showing a small but consistent Gillum lead.  But the Bradley effect cannot be discounted.
The Bradley effect is nonexistent.

Call it whatever you want--Bradley, Wilder, Shy Tory.  I hope you are right.   But this is Florida.  And take a look at the Vanity Fair article from 11/3/16.  Too bad the author was only partially correct in her assessment; otherwise, we wouldn't be dealing with a President Trump today.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/11/donald-trump-bradley-effect

No Bradley Effect occurred with Obama in Florida.

Or anywhere else for that matter.
Logged
Lou Barletta's Teeth
PittsburghSteel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,072
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: September 11, 2018, 08:35:46 pm »

Lol the "Bradley effect"? Atlas still trying to convince themselves that Gillum has no chance winning?
Logged
Councilor Zaybay
Zaybay
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,014
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: September 11, 2018, 08:41:34 pm »

Lol the "Bradley effect"? Atlas still trying to convince themselves that Gillum has no chance winning?
Yeah, this is really dumb. There is no Bradley effect, or Shy Tory effect, or whatever. Gillum is leading. Deal with it.
Logged
Mondale
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,951
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: September 11, 2018, 08:56:05 pm »

Lol the "Bradley effect"? Atlas still trying to convince themselves that Gillum has no chance winning?

The Bradley effect probably used to exist in the 80s and 90s but doesn't anymore.

Quote
There is fairly strong academic evidence that the Bradley Effect used to exist back in the 1980s and early 1990s. However, the evidence is just as strong that it does not exist any longer. The people who vouch for the existence of the Bradley Effect are not wrong so much as they are relying on dated evidence.


https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/persistent-myth-of-bradley-effect/
Logged
olowakandi
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 24,176
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: September 11, 2018, 08:57:44 pm »

Booker can win FL in 2020, too.
Logged
Very Legal & Very Cool
RFA09
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 635


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: September 11, 2018, 08:58:50 pm »

So the polls are showing a small but consistent Gillum lead.  But the Bradley effect cannot be discounted.

The Bradley effect has been thoroughly discounted.
Logged
Beto Bro
RFKFan68
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,844
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: September 11, 2018, 09:02:26 pm »

If anything Gillum is going to overperform.
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,473
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: September 11, 2018, 09:05:02 pm »

What's interesting is that this is an LV screen model, as opposed to an RV model.

Although Florida is an extremely tricky State to poll, because of a wide range of Metro Areas, fast changing population and demographic changes (Much like Texas), we are starting to see some interesting numbers in recent polls contrary to political conventional wisdom (CW).

I wonder to what extent the "Medicare for All" part of his platform is resonating among Senior Anglo swing voters, in a State with a high % of retirees that are quite comfortable with Medicare???

https://www.aarp.org/politics-society/government-elections/info-2018/aarp-politico-florida-poll.html
Logged
North Fulton Democrat
mollybecky
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 709


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: September 11, 2018, 09:13:42 pm »

What's interesting is that this is an LV screen model, as opposed to an RV model.

Although Florida is an extremely tricky State to poll, because of a wide range of Metro Areas, fast changing population and demographic changes (Much like Texas), we are starting to see some interesting numbers in recent polls contrary to political conventional wisdom (CW).

I wonder to what extent the "Medicare for All" part of his platform is resonating among Senior Anglo swing voters, in a State with a high % of retirees that are quite comfortable with Medicare???

https://www.aarp.org/politics-society/government-elections/info-2018/aarp-politico-florida-poll.html

The "Medicare for All" would probably have more of an impact with the 50-64 year old voter--where health insurance premiums are ridiculous with high deductibles, narrow networks, and poor coverage.    To create this option may be resonating with these voters--by getting access to Medicare, they would effectively get a larger access to doctors and hospitals (over 90% of doctors participate in Medicare) and have a higher level of coverage than what is available with private insurance HMOs.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC