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November 15, 2019, 02:26:31 am
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  2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  FL-SurveyUSA/Spectrum News: Gillum +4 (search mode)
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Author Topic: FL-SurveyUSA/Spectrum News: Gillum +4  (Read 2069 times)
North Fulton Swing
mollybecky
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« on: September 11, 2018, 06:42:37 pm »

So the polls are showing a small but consistent Gillum lead.  But the Bradley effect cannot be discounted.
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North Fulton Swing
mollybecky
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« Reply #1 on: September 11, 2018, 07:34:20 pm »

So the polls are showing a small but consistent Gillum lead.  But the Bradley effect cannot be discounted.
The Bradley effect is nonexistent.

Call it whatever you want--Bradley, Wilder, Shy Tory.  I hope you are right.   But this is Florida.  And take a look at the Vanity Fair article from 11/3/16.  Too bad the author was only partially correct in her assessment; otherwise, we wouldn't be dealing with a President Trump today.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/11/donald-trump-bradley-effect
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North Fulton Swing
mollybecky
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« Reply #2 on: September 11, 2018, 09:13:42 pm »

What's interesting is that this is an LV screen model, as opposed to an RV model.

Although Florida is an extremely tricky State to poll, because of a wide range of Metro Areas, fast changing population and demographic changes (Much like Texas), we are starting to see some interesting numbers in recent polls contrary to political conventional wisdom (CW).

I wonder to what extent the "Medicare for All" part of his platform is resonating among Senior Anglo swing voters, in a State with a high % of retirees that are quite comfortable with Medicare???

https://www.aarp.org/politics-society/government-elections/info-2018/aarp-politico-florida-poll.html

The "Medicare for All" would probably have more of an impact with the 50-64 year old voter--where health insurance premiums are ridiculous with high deductibles, narrow networks, and poor coverage.    To create this option may be resonating with these voters--by getting access to Medicare, they would effectively get a larger access to doctors and hospitals (over 90% of doctors participate in Medicare) and have a higher level of coverage than what is available with private insurance HMOs.
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