AZ-Gov(FOX):Doucey+11

[Ebsy]

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2018/09/12/fox-news-poll-912.html

LV
Doucey (GOP): 51
Garcia (DEM): 40

[ON Progressive]

I don't think Garcia will underperform Sinema by 14 points.

That being said, Lean R.

[Yellowhammer]

The same poll that has Sinema up 3 has Ducey up 11. Ducey's prospects are looking significantly better than they were a few months ago; it's a Lean R race at this point.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

McCain bounce

[IceSpear]

Yeah, Ducey must have gotten a bounce from the McCain stuff. Seems like he's consistently and significantly outperforming now, which wasn't really the case before. Will it last though?

[Skye]

The gap between this race and the Senatorial race is just something else.

[MT Treasurer]

RIP Mondale

[Zaybay]

*Spits out Coffee*, what the hell happened?! Im moving this to lean R, thats just too large of a lead. Perhaps it goes down, Im not sure. Gonna keep tabs on this race.

[Green Line]

Arizona is a Rpeublican state.  For the last 2 years people on here have been talking like that’s not that case.

[Person Man]

Arizona is a Rpeublican state.  For the last 2 years people on here have been talking like that’s not that case.

And Missouri and Ohio were Independent states and Colorado and Virginia were where Arizona is now.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Arizona is a Rpeublican state.  For the last 2 years people on here have been talking like that’s not that case.

AZ-08 was a pretty bizarre occurrence (how the hell did Tipinerni swing the district 16 pts!?!?), and many polls showed dems doing much better in AZ than previous years. Ducey's approvals were really poor in the midst of the teacher strikes.

People weren't just making up that AZ is trending blue out of thin air. It seems as if some of the blue wave may be receding in AZ, especially in the Governor race, but people weren't making things up.

And yeah, obviously states can change fast. Look at how the midwest became super red between 2008 and 2010, and 2012 and 2014.

[Zaybay]

There is a theory floating around that Doucey is experiencing a bump from McCain's passing, and that could explain whats going on. I would like another pollster to collaborate the results.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Oh and AZ can have GOP govs and Dem SENATORS, while FL, Iowa and GA elect progressives as GOV

[Zaybay]

Interesting crosstabs, the poll has Trump even in approval, but the poll has 48% Republicans. After looking at the crosstabs, its clear that the poll is rather R friendly, but it does seem that two things are true.
1. Ducey is experiencing a bounce due to McCain

2. Sinema is likely going to stay stagnent, or lose some of her lead

[Pericles]

Gotta rate this Lean R at this point.

[Zaybay]

Interesting crosstabs, the poll has Trump even in approval, but the poll has 48% Republicans. After looking at the crosstabs, its clear that the poll is rather R friendly, but it does seem that two things are true.
1. Ducey is experiencing a bounce due to McCain

2. Sinema is likely going to stay stagnent, or lose some of her lead

How does 2. follow from the point you made about the sample being too R-heavy

Its due to the fact that Sinema is leading at 47 with the current sample. And a good portion shes winning are Republicans. Im pretty sure the Rs left in the sample will go against her, which will decrease her lead, but they may go to Sinema simply for the same reason the others did. Overall, I know that Sinema isnt going to be expanding her lead

[Xing]

Am I the only one who noticed the spelling of Ducey's name? Am I missing something here?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Am I the only one who noticed the spelling of Ducey's name? Am I missing something here?

A misspelled "douchey" pun perhaps?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Am I the only one who noticed the spelling of Ducey's name? Am I missing something here?

A misspelled "douchey" pun perhaps?