WI- Marquette Polling: Tie
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  WI- Marquette Polling: Tie
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Gass3268
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« Reply #50 on: August 22, 2018, 09:19:45 PM »

This poll has Evers only winning the City of Milwaukee by 14 points. Tom Barrett had the worst result this decade in 2010 and even he won the City by 49 points.

Every other region is in the realm of possibility, but that's just nuts.
Yeah, Marquette really dropped the ball on this.

It has Baldwin only winning the City by 8!!
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Scottholes 2.0
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« Reply #51 on: August 22, 2018, 09:47:18 PM »

Walker will beat Evers by a small margin if he wins, I think (and likewise with Evers if he does). WI voters think the state's economy is in the right direction, and that is mostly what matters to WI voters, so I won't be very surprised if Walker wins. Walker seems to be doing a good job plastering his fake ads about Evers everywhere, too. If Tammy Baldwin loses, I am regarding WI as a tilt R state onward. This isn't going to deter me or my family from voting against him, though. I still have SOME hope. What really shocked me is the Baldwin-Vukmir near tie in the recent MU poll.

Then again, Evers and his campaign think this latest MU poll is a good sign of Democratic momentum in the state, so I guess I shouldn't be that worried if he and his team aren't. In fact Evers could be two points in the lead, which is quite likely since this poll is an obvious outlier, given that Walker is  leading 46 percent to Evers’ 44 percent, well within the margin of error of +/- 4 percent.

"Tony Evers clearly has the momentum in the opening days of the general election," said Evers' campaign manager Maggie Gau. "No matter what poll you look at, Tony has eliminated any advantage Walker has had."

https://www.wpr.org/mu-poll-dead-heat-governors-race-between-walker-evers

P.S. I know I'm on a couple people's ignore list for posting and ranting so much, but I am just deeply passionate about this race. Sorry if I've annoyed anyone :/
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Zaybay
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« Reply #52 on: August 22, 2018, 09:50:11 PM »

This poll has Evers only winning the City of Milwaukee by 14 points. Tom Barrett had the worst result this decade in 2010 and even he won the City by 49 points.

Every other region is in the realm of possibility, but that's just nuts.
Yeah, Marquette really dropped the ball on this.

It has Baldwin only winning the City by 8!!
Oh god, this is even worse than I thought. Why Marquette, why?

No wonder this poll is an outlier.
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junior chįmp
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« Reply #53 on: August 22, 2018, 09:50:44 PM »

Hate to break it to ya guys but Scott Walker aint winning. People like Walker cant keep getting re-elected without Blackenstein in the White House and without the Hillary boogeyman. Nobody votes for Walker because of his fights with the Unions or his tea party Conservatism.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #54 on: August 23, 2018, 12:14:38 AM »

This is strange. In a post-2016 study of why the polls were wrong (and nowhere were they wrong as consistently as WI), it was claimed that the pollsters underestimated the share of white working class voters. However, this does not bear out in the last Marquette Law School poll, which had Clinton +6. In that poll, 46% of voters were college graduates. Similarly, in the CNN exit poll, 45% were college graduates. In the Marquette Law School poll, 36% were high school graduates or below, and in the CNN exit poll, only 20% were high school graduates or below. So if anything, the 2016 Marquette Law School poll overestimated the education level of the electorate, yet still got it wrong.

This Marquette Law School poll finds 55% are college educated, which is reasonable given that it's a midterm. But if education does not explain why they were wrong in 2016, what was the reason? Could it be that Republican voters were afraid of being called bigots or voting for someone the media had so strongly shamed?

The exit polls consistently overestimate the education of the electorate itself though.

Can you provide a source for that? The exit polls are adjusted to match the actual result, which must mean that the demographic factors are adjusted until their bias is removed.

Here’s a good article on this: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/27/upshot/trump-losing-college-educated-whites-he-never-won-them-in-the-first-place.html

There are two distinct issues at play here, I think.  One is that some people lie about their education level to pollsters in a way that they don't lie about other demographic characteristics.  I don't have an example in front of me right now, but we've talked on this forum before about how some polls seem pretty unrealistic in terms of the distribution of education levels of respondents, when you compare to the actual percentage of the population with college degrees or higher.  There's no real way to square some of the numbers with overall turnout if everyone's telling the truth, unless you assume that there was ~100% turnout of those with college degrees, which obviously didn't happen.  This is a problem for both the exit poll and regular telephone polls, though I'm not sure if we really know if the scale is different in the two cases.

The other problem is, even if everyone were telling the truth about their demographics, the exit polls have to weight all the demographics in the right way to account for differential response rates, in a way that gets the topline number right.  But it's not like there's just one unique way to do that, and so there have been attempts to investigate ways in which the exit polls might have gotten the demographic mix of the electorate wrong, including in the link you gave.
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TJ in Oregon
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« Reply #55 on: August 23, 2018, 12:59:22 AM »

This is strange. In a post-2016 study of why the polls were wrong (and nowhere were they wrong as consistently as WI), it was claimed that the pollsters underestimated the share of white working class voters. However, this does not bear out in the last Marquette Law School poll, which had Clinton +6. In that poll, 46% of voters were college graduates. Similarly, in the CNN exit poll, 45% were college graduates. In the Marquette Law School poll, 36% were high school graduates or below, and in the CNN exit poll, only 20% were high school graduates or below. So if anything, the 2016 Marquette Law School poll overestimated the education level of the electorate, yet still got it wrong.

This Marquette Law School poll finds 55% are college educated, which is reasonable given that it's a midterm. But if education does not explain why they were wrong in 2016, what was the reason? Could it be that Republican voters were afraid of being called bigots or voting for someone the media had so strongly shamed?

The exit polls consistently overestimate the education of the electorate itself though.

Can you provide a source for that? The exit polls are adjusted to match the actual result, which must mean that the demographic factors are adjusted until their bias is removed.

Here’s a good article on this: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/27/upshot/trump-losing-college-educated-whites-he-never-won-them-in-the-first-place.html

There are two distinct issues at play here, I think.  One is that some people lie about their education level to pollsters in a way that they don't lie about other demographic characteristics.  I don't have an example in front of me right now, but we've talked on this forum before about how some polls seem pretty unrealistic in terms of the distribution of education levels of respondents, when you compare to the actual percentage of the population with college degrees or higher.  There's no real way to square some of the numbers with overall turnout if everyone's telling the truth, unless you assume that there was ~100% turnout of those with college degrees, which obviously didn't happen.  This is a problem for both the exit poll and regular telephone polls, though I'm not sure if we really know if the scale is different in the two cases.

The other problem is, even if everyone were telling the truth about their demographics, the exit polls have to weight all the demographics in the right way to account for differential response rates, in a way that gets the topline number right.  But it's not like there's just one unique way to do that, and so there have been attempts to investigate ways in which the exit polls might have gotten the demographic mix of the electorate wrong, including in the link you gave.


I think there may be some Wisconsin-specific effects at play here. It's no secret that the Wisconsin GOP reacted to Trump in a completely different way that the state GOP's of the vast majority of the country, and that the Wisconsin GOP has a uniquely motivated ideological suburban base. I would posit that the polling underestimated Trump because the WOW voters came home despite telling pollsters they were undecided. I don't think there was as strong of an effect like that elsewhere in the country.
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Badger
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« Reply #56 on: August 23, 2018, 01:05:09 AM »

Hate to break it to ya guys but Scott Walker aint winning. People like Walker cant keep getting re-elected without Blackenstein in the White House and without the Hillary boogeyman. Nobody votes for Walker because of his fights with the Unions or his tea party Conservatism.

This. He won narrowly twice before running in historic GOP wave years. Unlike Rick Scott, he hasn't risen in popularity and downplayed his extremism one bit.
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Scottholes 2.0
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« Reply #57 on: August 23, 2018, 01:35:27 AM »

Does anyone think Leah Vukmir has any chance of winning even if future polls show her leading?
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #58 on: August 23, 2018, 06:46:45 AM »

Hate to break it to ya guys but Scott Walker aint winning. People like Walker cant keep getting re-elected without Blackenstein in the White House and without the Hillary boogeyman. Nobody votes for Walker because of his fights with the Unions or his tea party Conservatism.

This. He won narrowly twice before running in historic GOP wave years. Unlike Rick Scott, he hasn't risen in popularity and downplayed his extremism one bit.
Yes, but there are more notable things to hit Scott with as opposed to Walker.  The algae crisis being one thing.  The fact that Nelson hasn't brought that up in his campaign shows his incompetence.

Walker has fewer visible problems in Wisconsin.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #59 on: August 23, 2018, 08:45:37 PM »

Dems shouldn't be surprised if Scott Walker got reelected.
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Scottholes 2.0
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« Reply #60 on: August 23, 2018, 10:40:45 PM »

Dems shouldn't be surprised if Scott Walker got reelected.

You've said this many times already. Scott Walker is a very powerful man who rigged the previous three elections, so no, I won't be surprised.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #61 on: August 24, 2018, 01:20:46 PM »

Dems shouldn't be surprised if Scott Walker got reelected.

You've said this many times already. Scott Walker is a very powerful man who rigged the previous three elections, so no, I won't be surprised.

Pretty bold claim there, want to explain it?
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« Reply #62 on: August 24, 2018, 05:31:04 PM »

Dems shouldn't be surprised if Scott Walker got reelected.

You've said this many times already. Scott Walker is a very powerful man who rigged the previous three elections, so no, I won't be surprised.

Pretty bold claim there, want to explain it?
He gave robocalls to recall supporters saying they didn't need to vote and their vote for the recall counted already. Not really rigging but more of subtle suppression.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #63 on: August 24, 2018, 07:30:33 PM »

I said don't be surprised, this race is a pure tossup and Evers can win. But, in a down year for the GOP, upsets can happen in blue states as well as red states.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #64 on: August 24, 2018, 07:51:47 PM »

Considering that every poll has this race as either Evers leading or a tie, its clear that this race is tilt-D, at the least.
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« Reply #65 on: August 25, 2018, 05:28:39 PM »

Dems shouldn't be surprised if Scott Walker got reelected.

You've said this many times already. Scott Walker is a very powerful man who rigged the previous three elections, so no, I won't be surprised.

Pretty bold claim there, want to explain it?
He gave robocalls to recall supporters saying they didn't need to vote and their vote for the recall counted already. Not really rigging but more of subtle suppression.

It seems like he beat the Russians to it.
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Scottholes 2.0
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« Reply #66 on: September 10, 2018, 03:14:01 PM »

When is the next MU poll going to come out? I won't be surprised if Walker's Alma mater shows him leading or tied with Evers.
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Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez
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« Reply #67 on: September 15, 2018, 12:32:21 PM »

I despise Scott Walker, but I won't believe he'll lose until it happens.
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Scottholes 2.0
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« Reply #68 on: September 15, 2018, 01:07:22 PM »

I despise Scott Walker, but I won't believe he'll lose until it happens.

I'm just wondering how voters are going to split their tickets to reelect Baldwin and Walker at the same time. Neither of them is moderate, so if Walker wins, so is Vukmir. That is my opinion!
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« Reply #69 on: September 15, 2018, 07:22:50 PM »

I despise Scott Walker, but I won't believe he'll lose until it happens.

I'm just wondering how voters are going to split their tickets to reelect Baldwin and Walker at the same time. Neither of them is moderate, so if Walker wins, so is Vukmir. That is my opinion!

Walker does not come across as an extremist like vukmir, and Baldwin has stronger crossover support currently than Tony Evers. Baldwin is safe, even if Walker manages to pull out another reelection, which I doubt.
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« Reply #70 on: September 15, 2018, 09:03:50 PM »

PPP conducted gubernatorial polls this year in Wisconsin May 9-10, August 15-16, and September 4-5.  it ran one of those Protect Our Care polls March 15-16 in the Senate race.  It showed Baldwin leading 51% to 39%

As you all know Marquette University in its poll conducted June 13-17, showed Baldwin leading 49% to 40%.  Then it conducted a poll August 15-19, showing Baldwin leading 49% to 47% among 601 LV and leading 51% to 43% among 800 RV.

In 2016 PPP conducted an August poll in the Senate race. 

My question is:  WHERE IS PPP in the Senate race?
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« Reply #71 on: September 15, 2018, 09:11:07 PM »

Stop skewing the polls.

It is my understanding that discrepancies such as the correct proportion of voters in places like the City of Milwaukee are actually taken into account. How I do not know.   

Is this Marquette poll an outlier.  I said earlier quite possibly.   But you have to remember the Marquette Poll was the one that most accurately pegged the trend to Johnson in 2016..
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Scottholes 2.0
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« Reply #72 on: September 15, 2018, 10:48:20 PM »

I despise Scott Walker, but I won't believe he'll lose until it happens.

I'm just wondering how voters are going to split their tickets to reelect Baldwin and Walker at the same time. Neither of them is moderate, so if Walker wins, so is Vukmir. That is my opinion!

Walker does not come across as an extremist like vukmir, and Baldwin has stronger crossover support currently than Tony Evers. Baldwin is safe, even if Walker manages to pull out another reelection, which I doubt.

You make a valid point, but as a WI resident I think it's hard to argue that Walker isn't an extremist. He's coming off as a moderate Republican because it's election season. Many Wisconsin residents will tell you that Walker is far-right on the issues. I'd know since his policies have affected me as a WI resident.

Ontheissues.com rates both Walker and Baldwin as far-right and far-left

http://www.ontheissues.org/Scott_Walker.htm
http://www.ontheissues.org/House/Tammy_Baldwin.htm

You make some valid points and I know you said you doubt Walker will win, but I'll be surprised if ticket-splitting occurs in this election cycle.



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Badger
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« Reply #73 on: September 15, 2018, 11:45:09 PM »

I despise Scott Walker, but I won't believe he'll lose until it happens.

I'm just wondering how voters are going to split their tickets to reelect Baldwin and Walker at the same time. Neither of them is moderate, so if Walker wins, so is Vukmir. That is my opinion!

Walker does not come across as an extremist like vukmir, and Baldwin has stronger crossover support currently than Tony Evers. Baldwin is safe, even if Walker manages to pull out another reelection, which I doubt.

You make a valid point, but as a WI resident I think it's hard to argue that Walker isn't an extremist. He's coming off as a moderate Republican because it's election season. Many Wisconsin residents will tell you that Walker is far-right on the issues. I'd know since his policies have affected me as a WI resident.

Ontheissues.com rates both Walker and Baldwin as far-right and far-left

http://www.ontheissues.org/Scott_Walker.htm
http://www.ontheissues.org/House/Tammy_Baldwin.htm

You make some valid points and I know you said you doubt Walker will win, but I'll be surprised if ticket-splitting occurs in this election cycle.





Walker is hard conservative to be sure. But my impression of Vukmir is she's a complete bomb-throwing far right whackjob.
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Scottholes 2.0
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« Reply #74 on: September 16, 2018, 01:20:40 AM »

I despise Scott Walker, but I won't believe he'll lose until it happens.

I'm just wondering how voters are going to split their tickets to reelect Baldwin and Walker at the same time. Neither of them is moderate, so if Walker wins, so is Vukmir. That is my opinion!

Walker does not come across as an extremist like vukmir, and Baldwin has stronger crossover support currently than Tony Evers. Baldwin is safe, even if Walker manages to pull out another reelection, which I doubt.

You make a valid point, but as a WI resident I think it's hard to argue that Walker isn't an extremist. He's coming off as a moderate Republican because it's election season. Many Wisconsin residents will tell you that Walker is far-right on the issues. I'd know since his policies have affected me as a WI resident.

Ontheissues.com rates both Walker and Baldwin as far-right and far-left

http://www.ontheissues.org/Scott_Walker.htm
http://www.ontheissues.org/House/Tammy_Baldwin.htm

You make some valid points and I know you said you doubt Walker will win, but I'll be surprised if ticket-splitting occurs in this election cycle.





Walker is hard conservative to be sure. But my impression of Vukmir is she's a complete bomb-throwing far right whackjob.

Very true!
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