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Author Topic: AZ OH-Predictive Insights: McSally +3  (Read 1315 times)
TheRocketRaccoon
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« on: September 12, 2018, 01:40:00 am »



Full poll: https://www.dropbox.com/s/o18etzyrxh0qif6/Press%20Version%20SENATE%20report%20ONLY.pdf
« Last Edit: September 12, 2018, 08:32:28 am by TheRocketRaccoon »Logged
Free Bird
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« Reply #1 on: September 12, 2018, 01:41:39 am »

Where is your God now, Atlas?
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #2 on: September 12, 2018, 01:45:22 am »

After Labor Day and till the end of September the White House party always recovers, just look at Morris's graph.
I've mentioned this almost a dozen times the past year and I fully expect the usual suspects to start panicking again when Democratic numbers drop in the next days.
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TheRocketRaccoon
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« Reply #3 on: September 12, 2018, 01:48:06 am »

Where is your God now, Atlas?

Not regurgitating sh**tty and dated memes, hopefully.
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IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
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« Reply #4 on: September 12, 2018, 01:52:52 am »

Sinema has got to be one of, if not the most overrated Democratic candidate of this election cycle (and it’s not as if there’s a lack of competition in this regard). She’ll probably still win because of the national environment, but there’s no way this flips before NV. Tilt/Lean D, but if more polls show McSally ahead, I’ll move it to Tossup.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #5 on: September 12, 2018, 01:54:52 am »

Sinema was up 4 in their last poll, and 6 in the one before that. Yikes. She really might blow this. I'm sad to say I've been right all these months, yet it was brushed off because of muh June polls.

Sinema completely squandered the year long head start she had by running endless moderate hero ads and never laying a finger on McSally. And this is what she has to show for it. What an awful candidate and a terrible campaign. Yet Atlas insisted AZ was more likely to flip than NV. Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes
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« Reply #6 on: September 12, 2018, 02:00:17 am »

I still think Sinema ends up winning, but she needs to get her sh**t together and drop this “positive campaign” bullsh**t.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #7 on: September 12, 2018, 02:07:23 am »

She said she wouldn't vote for Schumer as leader, just like Grimes said. Something you say after you are elected, not before and Grimes paid a price for a gaffee
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IceSpear
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« Reply #8 on: September 12, 2018, 02:07:36 am »

I still think Sinema ends up winning, but she needs to get her sh**t together and drop this “positive campaign” bullsh**t.

She should still win in this environment, but she's certainly doing her damnedest to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Whoever has run her campaign should probably be barred from any Democratic campaigns in the future. Along with whoever thought of the "court Reasonable Republicans" and the "When they go low we go high" strategies from 2016.
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« Reply #9 on: September 12, 2018, 02:10:12 am »

I still think Sinema ends up winning, but she needs to get her sh**t together and drop this “positive campaign” bullsh**t.

She should still win in this environment, but she's certainly doing her damnedest to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Whoever has run her campaign should probably be barred from any Democratic campaigns in the future. Along with whoever thought of the "court Reasonable Republicans" and the "When they go low we go high" strategies from 2016.

Yeah. A good start would be to at least turn her anti-Schumer stance on McSally by pointing out she is with the decrepit turtle.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #10 on: September 12, 2018, 02:11:08 am »

Interesting, but I expected a tightening here.
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Secret Cavern Survivor
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« Reply #11 on: September 12, 2018, 02:17:29 am »

I still think Sinema ends up winning, but she needs to get her sh**t together and drop this “positive campaign” bullsh**t.

She should still win in this environment, but she's certainly doing her damnedest to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Whoever has run her campaign should probably be barred from any Democratic campaigns in the future. Along with whoever thought of the "court Reasonable Republicans" and the "When they go low we go high" strategies from 2016.

^^^ What an absolutely pathetic candidate.

but technocracy timmy told me you need to be a ~sensible moderate~ Smiley Smiley Smiley to win in az
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #12 on: September 12, 2018, 02:42:42 am »

If Democrats nominated Abboud instead, McSally would be up by 8-10 points and this race would have been a repeat of the 2010 Deleware Senate Race where the GOP threw a winnable race by nominating the tea party candidate over the moderate hero.
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« Reply #13 on: September 12, 2018, 02:47:50 am »

Where is your God now, Atlas?


Tilt D --->  Likely R
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IceSpear
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« Reply #14 on: September 12, 2018, 02:50:04 am »

If Democrats nominated Abboud instead, McSally would be up by 8-10 points and this race would have been a repeat of the 2010 Deleware Senate Race where the GOP threw a winnable race by nominating the tea party candidate over the moderate hero.

Which is why Hiral Tipirnini kept a district that Trump won by 21 points to a 5 point win by running as a solid progressive. Roll Eyes

Not that it would've mattered what she ran as. People don't vote based on ideology, ESPECIALLY not "swing voters." Sinema is a garbage candidate not because she's running as a moderate hero necessarily (though I personally find it annoying, and I highly doubt I'm alone there), but because she's done nothing but run boring ads about how moderate she is and let McSally get by completely unscathed. McSally has landed more blows on Sinema in the last week than Sinema has on McSally in the last year.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #15 on: September 12, 2018, 02:58:26 am »

Sinema was up 4 in their last poll, and 6 in the one before that. Yikes. She really might blow this. I'm sad to say I've been right all these months, yet it was brushed off because of muh June polls.

Sinema completely squandered the year long head start she had by running endless moderate hero ads and never laying a finger on McSally. And this is what she has to show for it. What an awful candidate and a terrible campaign. Yet Atlas insisted AZ was more likely to flip than NV. Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes
It's absolutely insane that she had a year to gather an enormous campaign warchest and attack McSally during the primaries, when she was at her most vulnerable and when Republicans were far more likely to want to listen to negatives about her.

Sinema never ran a single notable negative ad against McSally until after the primary. An absolute disgrace of a campaign.

Anyway, this is clearly Lean R at this point. Again, as I stated in the other thread and all the hacks attacked me over, I will accept my accolades when McSally wins 52-47 in November.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #16 on: September 12, 2018, 03:02:01 am »

As I have previously said. This is many undecided voters, many of whom were Arpaio/Ward or bust voters warming up to McSally or voting for her for partisan loyalty reasons.
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Former Senator Zaybay
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« Reply #17 on: September 12, 2018, 05:21:31 am »

Im not going to start drawing conclusions from 1 pollster, as others seem to be doing here, but in the case that this race is back to pure tossup, then I have no one else to blame than Sinema. Turns out just being a moderate doesnt win votes, as many people thought, and you have to actually appeal to voters, real shocker. Anyway, she probably wins due to national environment.
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Senator ON Progressive
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« Reply #18 on: September 12, 2018, 05:52:05 am »

A single poll from a mediocre pollster shows McSally up a mere 3 points and people go “LEAN R LEAN R.” Peak Atlas.
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« Reply #19 on: September 12, 2018, 06:33:49 am »

After Labor Day and till the end of September the White House party always recovers, just look at Morris's graph.
I've mentioned this almost a dozen times the past year and I fully expect the usual suspects to start panicking again when Democratic numbers drop in the next days.

But wait zaybay told me only Democrats come home and not Republicans.

Great Poll for McSally.
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King Francis I
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« Reply #20 on: September 12, 2018, 06:58:43 am »

It's a poll that gives Trump's job approval in Arizona: 51 Approve 47 Disapprove.

So I guess Sinema will be fine.
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TX more competitive than OH
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« Reply #21 on: September 12, 2018, 07:00:11 am »

It's a poll that gives Trump's job approval in Arizona: 51 Approve 47 Disapprove.

So I guess Sinema will be fine.

Oh then Atlas overreacted as normal. Myself included
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Gass3268
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« Reply #22 on: September 12, 2018, 07:01:12 am »

Isn't this a Republican affiliated pollster?
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King Francis I
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« Reply #23 on: September 12, 2018, 07:02:58 am »

Isn't this a Republican affiliated pollster?
I don't know, but Trump definitely doesn't have a +4 job approval in Arizona.
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TarHeelDem
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« Reply #24 on: September 12, 2018, 07:03:27 am »

Still very Lean D.
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