If Democrats nominated Abboud instead, McSally would be up by 8-10 points and this race would have been a repeat of the 2010 Deleware Senate Race where the GOP threw a winnable race by nominating the tea party candidate over the moderate hero.
Which is why Hiral Tipirnini kept a district that Trump won by 21 points to a 5 point win by running as a solid progressive. 
Not that it would've mattered what she ran as. People don't vote based on ideology, ESPECIALLY not "swing voters." Sinema is a garbage candidate not because she's running as a moderate hero necessarily (though I personally find it annoying, and I highly doubt I'm alone there), but because she's done nothing but run boring ads about how moderate she is and let McSally get by completely unscathed. McSally has landed more blows on Sinema in the last week than Sinema has on McSally in the last year.
That was a special election , those election always have very weird results.
The fact is this race is very similar to 2010 Delaware if Castle won the primaries .
