Dutchess county ny

[jman123]

Upstate  NY swung heavily towards Trump. Why is it that Dutchess county NY still go for Hillary? What exactly may have prevented a Trump win there?

[Hydera]

Upstate  NY swung heavily towards Trump. Why is it that Dutchess county NY still go for Hillary? What exactly may have prevented a Trump win there?

Comparing it to Sullivan county, These two counties both have a similair racial demographics in terms of percentages which gave her a cushion. But Sullivan has an average median income of 52K while Dutchess has 72K. Plus Dutchess has more people who were raised in NYC which meant they had a more socially liberal mindset along with higher education. Allowing her to barely squeak by there.

[Senator Incitatus]

Dutchess has a semi-urban core around Poughkeepsie. Roughly one-third of the county lives in Poughkeepsie or Hyde Park. It doesn't profile much like most other upstate counties.

Sort of like how Warren, NJ remained Democratic even longer than Sussex and Hunterdon did – it retained an urban core in Phillipsburg, meaning that despite its overall rural character, it had a somewhat urban voting pattern.

[cinyc]

Dutchess has a semi-urban core around Poughkeepsie. Roughly one-third of the county lives in Poughkeepsie or Hyde Park. It doesn't profile much like most other upstate counties.

Sort of like how Warren, NJ remained Democratic even longer than Sussex and Hunterdon did – it retained an urban core in Phillipsburg, meaning that despite its overall rural character, it had a somewhat urban voting pattern.

This is basically it. Clinton won Poughkeepsie and Beacon. But as the embedded Tweet in non-Atlas colors shows, some non-urban towns along the Hudson River, like Hyde Park, also voted Clinton.

https://twitter.com/cinyc9/status/1038949942574899200

The Dutchess County vote was very close, though. IIRC, Clinton was actually losing the county until the absentee votes were counted.

[Averroës Nix]

You can ride the Metro North line from Poughkeepsie straight into Manhattan. There are people who make this commute five days per week. That's an extreme case, but in economic terms Dutchess County is very much a part of the New York metro.

Also, those dense little cities along the Hudson, which tend to vote for Democrats by large margins, hold a decent share of the county's population.

[Tintrlvr]

Dutchess is transitional to Upstate and still has some nexus with the NYC metro. Perhaps more surprising would be the result in Columbia County to its north (which ended up significantly stronger for Clinton than Dutchess), which is well beyond commuting range for NYC. However, Columbia and Dutchess also have in common that they include a lot of rural liberals as well, similar to the adjacent areas in western Massachusetts. As a general matter, both are relatively well off and have economies that are doing well, being primed by money flowing north from NYC into vacation homes, art destinations (Beacon is home to a world-famous contemporary art museum, and all of the towns of size in both counties have significant artist presences) and other luxury spending, and thus have a significantly different economy to the rest of Upstate, where the economy is weaker.

[King of Kensington]

I see that Dutchess is over 20% Italian ancestry.  Is that mostly "native" or NYC exurban spillover?

[Tintrlvr]

I see that Dutchess is over 20% Italian ancestry.  Is that mostly "native" or NYC exurban spillover?

I doubt that there were very many people who immigrated directly from Italy to Dutchess County if that's what you mean; perhaps some factory workers in the small town manufacturing that used to be a significant part of the economy (but hasn't been for at least 30 years).

It doesn't particularly stand out relative to other counties in the area. Putnam County just to the south is the second-most Italian American county in the country (after Staten Island), and the southern part of Dutchess at least is definitely in the NYC orbit.

I guess that's a long way of saying it's just a consequence of being a NYC exurban county in 2018. Other exurban NYC counties like Suffolk and Morris are more Italian American.

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High income and part of the NYC metro.