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  TX - CBS 11 / Dixie Strategies Poll: Cruz +4%
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Author Topic: TX - CBS 11 / Dixie Strategies Poll: Cruz +4%  (Read 1691 times)
Mondale
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« on: September 12, 2018, 02:11:05 pm »

Quote
Likely voters in Texas were asked who they would vote for if the election for U.S. Senate were held today. While Cruz is ahead in the poll with only four points separating him from O’Rourke, the result is a statistical tie – within the margin of error of 4.3%. Of all likely voters in Texas surveyed, 46% of respondents said they would vote for Ted Cruz while 42% said they would vote for O’Rourke.

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https://dfw.cbslocal.com/2018/09/12/cruz-clings-to-small-lead-in-texas/

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IceSpear
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« Reply #1 on: September 12, 2018, 02:17:50 pm »

Great poll!

Unfortunately, I have a feeling that final few percent that Beto needs is gonna be damn near impossible to get.
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Senator ON Progressive
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« Reply #2 on: September 12, 2018, 02:20:35 pm »

Isn't it normal for TX Republicans to do quite a bit better among LVs than RVs? Doesn’t seem like it this time.
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #3 on: September 12, 2018, 02:20:46 pm »

I wonder whose silhouette they use for undecided.  
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Senate/SCOTUS/EC Delenda Est 👁
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« Reply #4 on: September 12, 2018, 02:21:21 pm »

Yeah, that's a pretty good result for Beto. Dixie Strategies in TX is normally pretty horrible for Dems in TX (somewhat realistically though...).

Great poll!

Unfortunately, I have a feeling that final few percent that Beto needs is gonna be damn near impossible to get.

Yes, exactly that. Those last few percentage points are incredibly tough, especially in a midterm. Beto would have a better chance if it were a Presidential year with Presidential turnout. But too much of the Dem base in TX is just not the college-educated whites among whom Dems are likely to have a particular surge.
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Wesley Troopner
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« Reply #5 on: September 12, 2018, 02:21:28 pm »

Cruz has had a pretty consistent lead of a few points.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #6 on: September 12, 2018, 02:23:12 pm »

It's encouraging, but the race seems stable at the moment with a small Cruz lead. Hope we soon see some polls showing Beto ahead. I know, the only poll that counts is election day, but as long as Cruz is ahead in all polls, it makes it harder to believe Beto can actually win.
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« Reply #7 on: September 12, 2018, 02:30:02 pm »

Dixie Strategies is an unreliable pollster to say the least.
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Bagel23
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« Reply #8 on: September 12, 2018, 03:51:39 pm »

Good result again.
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« Reply #9 on: September 12, 2018, 03:53:03 pm »

I agree that although O'Rourke has come closer than just about anyone expected him to, making up those last few percentage points will be quite difficult. Not impossible, but Cruz is still definitely favored.
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Once & Future Pres. Griff
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« Reply #10 on: September 12, 2018, 03:58:55 pm »

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I don't think it's a coincidence that the silhouette of "undecided man" is basically a silhouette of Ted Cruz
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IceSpear
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« Reply #11 on: September 12, 2018, 04:26:50 pm »

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I don't think it's a coincidence that the silhouette of "undecided man" is basically a silhouette of Ted Cruz

The silhouette is far more attractive and inviting than Cruz's ugly mug and forced grimace.
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yeah_93
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« Reply #12 on: September 12, 2018, 04:51:02 pm »

I agree that although O'Rourke has come closer than just about anyone expected him to, making up those last few percentage points will be quite difficult. Not impossible, but Cruz is still definitely favored.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #13 on: September 12, 2018, 06:07:32 pm »

I feel like “last few percentage points” analysis is usually ok but it goes out the window in Texas 2018 where you have both a highly volatile and disengaged electorate and a lot of people potentially voting against past habit.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #14 on: September 12, 2018, 06:23:43 pm »

We're a little less than 2 months away and it looks like based on numerous polls its officially about Cruz +3/4. Beto has 50-something days to get those last 3/4%
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jrk26
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« Reply #15 on: September 14, 2018, 10:46:17 pm »

We're a little less than 2 months away and it looks like based on numerous polls its officially about Cruz +3/4. Beto has 50-something days to get those last 3/4%

Yup.
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Pericles
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« Reply #16 on: September 15, 2018, 05:29:19 am »

Yeah, that's a pretty good result for Beto. Dixie Strategies in TX is normally pretty horrible for Dems in TX (somewhat realistically though...).

Great poll!

Unfortunately, I have a feeling that final few percent that Beto needs is gonna be damn near impossible to get.

Yes, exactly that. Those last few percentage points are incredibly tough, especially in a midterm. Beto would have a better chance if it were a Presidential year with Presidential turnout. But too much of the Dem base in TX is just not the college-educated whites among whom Dems are likely to have a particular surge.

I think if this race were in 2020 Beto would probably be doing worse-it's possible it could be different but the environment is very favorable to Beto with Democrats having a big nationwide edge, enthusiasm and midterm election dynamics. If it were a presidential election year sure more Democratic voters would turn out but more Republicans would turn out, and I think that would overall tilt towards Cruz. Especially since it's unlikely the Democrats wins by near double digits in 2020, so the national environment would be better for Cruz than it is rn. Beto has the best national environment he can realistically hope for, and he's made good use of it so far, but it's unclear whether it'll be enough.
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Anthony Davis is Awesome
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« Reply #17 on: September 15, 2018, 07:18:00 am »

All Summer these numbers haven't change much and Beto is running a leftist campaign. Cruz should win, unless it's a full blown wave. 31 net House seats may not be enough to wash over TX
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #18 on: September 15, 2018, 08:22:46 am »

All Summer these numbers haven't change much and Beto is running a leftist campaign. Cruz should win, unless it's a full blown wave. 31 net House seats may not be enough to wash over TX

Nope. Cruz has been steadily losing his lead month by month.

Average of May: Cruz +9
Average of June: Cruz +7.5
Average of July: Cruz +5.7
Average of August: Cruz +2.5
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cvparty
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« Reply #19 on: September 15, 2018, 10:27:16 am »

All Summer these numbers haven't change much and Beto is running a leftist campaign. Cruz should win, unless it's a full blown wave. 31 net House seats may not be enough to wash over TX

Nope. Cruz has been steadily losing his lead month by month.

Average of May: Cruz +9
Average of June: Cruz +7.5
Average of July: Cruz +5.7
Average of August: Cruz +2.5
go awf
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Badger
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« Reply #20 on: September 15, 2018, 06:57:08 pm »

All Summer these numbers haven't change much and Beto is running a leftist campaign. Cruz should win, unless it's a full blown wave. 31 net House seats may not be enough to wash over TX

Nope. Cruz has been steadily losing his lead month by month.

Average of May: Cruz +9
Average of June: Cruz +7.5
Average of July: Cruz +5.7
Average of August: Cruz +2.5

Interesting. I trust your statistics, but frankly it's felt like just about every poll results as head cruise up buy one to four points for a month or two now. Your statistics don't lie, but somehow it just doesn't feel like O'Rourke is gaining. Know what I mean?
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Virginiá
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« Reply #21 on: September 15, 2018, 07:55:24 pm »

All Summer these numbers haven't change much and Beto is running a leftist campaign. Cruz should win, unless it's a full blown wave. 31 net House seats may not be enough to wash over TX

Nope. Cruz has been steadily losing his lead month by month.

Average of May: Cruz +9
Average of June: Cruz +7.5
Average of July: Cruz +5.7
Average of August: Cruz +2.5

Interesting. I trust your statistics, but frankly it's felt like just about every poll results as head cruise up buy one to four points for a month or two now. Your statistics don't lie, but somehow it just doesn't feel like O'Rourke is gaining. Know what I mean?

Agreed, although I do think there has been some sort of trend towards Beto. Just not sure how much:

Img


As you can see, we aren't exactly SUPER flush with polls, and the one repeat poll we've had from QP actually shows an increase on Cruz's margin (Cruz+3 in April to Cruz+6 in July). We need more data Sad

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I hope they bomb Texas with polls in October so we can see whether or not Beto gets a surge during the final stretch as people make up their minds. That would, to me, indicate a potential win.
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #22 on: September 16, 2018, 06:29:01 pm »

Maybe the only hope now for Beto is a scandal against Cruz, or Cruz screws up in the debates (but he's a good debater, so I dunno).

A Ted Cruz scandal is probably the only likely way Beto can jump further at this point.
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