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  2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  TN-FOX: Lee (R) +20
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Author Topic: TN-FOX: Lee (R) +20  (Read 700 times)
ExtremeConservative
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« on: September 12, 2018, 05:52:33 pm »

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2018/09/12/fox-news-poll-tennessee-912.html

Can we finally admit that this is Safe R now?
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olowakandi
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« Reply #1 on: September 12, 2018, 05:54:05 pm »

He's obviously not gonna win by 20 points with a competetive Senate race, try 6-9 pts
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Senator ON Progressive
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« Reply #2 on: September 12, 2018, 05:55:50 pm »

It'll probably be closer than this. By that, I mean Lee winning by 15%. Safe R.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #3 on: September 12, 2018, 06:02:02 pm »

Remember when Atlas thought this was a toss up because of a single poll by Emerson in July? Lol. Pepperidge Farm remembers.

Safe R, as it has always been.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #4 on: September 12, 2018, 06:10:29 pm »

Remember when Atlas thought this was a toss up because of a single poll by Emerson in July? Lol. Pepperidge Farm remembers.

Safe R, as it has always been.

States are coming home and MD & NH are gonna come around for Dems
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Predictor
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« Reply #5 on: September 13, 2018, 08:52:55 am »

Remember when Atlas thought this was a toss up because of a single poll by Emerson in July? Lol. Pepperidge Farm remembers.

Safe R, as it has always been.

States are coming home and MD & NH are gonna come around for Dems
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gvdf5n-zI14
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Alabama_Indy10
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« Reply #6 on: September 13, 2018, 08:56:55 am »

Remember when Atlas thought this was a toss up because of a single poll by Emerson in July? Lol. Pepperidge Farm remembers.

Safe R, as it has always been.
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The Unbearable Inevitability of Nevada going Democratic
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« Reply #7 on: September 13, 2018, 11:10:48 am »

Yeah, Safe R.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #8 on: September 13, 2018, 02:28:07 pm »

This race oversampled to many GOPers, years Lee will win, but by a 6-9 pt margin, Dean can make it close enough to push Bredesen over the line. The goal was to get Dean elected, but more importantly Bredesen.
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« Reply #9 on: September 13, 2018, 02:37:13 pm »

Safe R. Weird how this somehow became less competitive than SC and SD.
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« Reply #10 on: September 13, 2018, 02:38:35 pm »

Safe R. Weird how this somehow became less competitive than SC and SD.

Lee will probably carry Blackburn across the finish line, just like Abbott will probably carry Cruz across the finish line in Texas.
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« Reply #11 on: September 13, 2018, 02:41:26 pm »

Safe R. Weird how this somehow became less competitive than SC and SD.

Lee will probably carry Blackburn across the finish line, just like Abbott will probably carry Cruz across the finish line in Texas.


Not really how it works. Senate races tend to provide coattails for gubernatorial races, not the other way around.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #12 on: September 13, 2018, 03:06:10 pm »

Safe R. Weird how this somehow became less competitive than SC and SD.

Lee will probably carry Blackburn across the finish line, just like Abbott will probably carry Cruz across the finish line in Texas.


Not really how it works. Senate races tend to provide coattails for gubernatorial races, not the other way around.

I dispute this point here. Abbott and Lee are both polling far ahead of Cruz and Blackburn. Are you saying that they will have no effect whatsoever on the Senate races in those states? In 2006, for example, in Tennessee, Phil Bredesen far outperformed Harold Ford, Jr, and Ford came very close to winning that year. Arguably, it could be said that he may not have done as well if Bredesen had won by a smaller margin.
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« Reply #13 on: September 13, 2018, 03:09:42 pm »

Safe R. Weird how this somehow became less competitive than SC and SD.

Lee will probably carry Blackburn across the finish line, just like Abbott will probably carry Cruz across the finish line in Texas.


Not really how it works. Senate races tend to provide coattails for gubernatorial races, not the other way around.

I dispute this point here. Abbott and Lee are both polling far ahead of Cruz and Blackburn. Are you saying that they will have no effect whatsoever on the Senate races in those states? In 2006, for example, in Tennessee, Phil Bredesen far outperformed Harold Ford, Jr, and Ford came very close to winning that year. Arguably, it could be said that he may not have done as well if Bredesen had won by a smaller margin.

I'm not saying they'll have no effect whatsoever, but if any effect happens to occur, it'll be minor. It's not like Larry Hogan or Charlie Baker's performance will improve Tony Campbell or Geoff Diehl's performance. Ford came close to winning because he was a strong candidate running for an open seat in a wave year. If Bredesen hadn't been the governor, Ford probably would've done worse, but it would've been a minor difference, barely perceptible.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #14 on: September 13, 2018, 05:01:09 pm »

Safe R. Weird how this somehow became less competitive than SC and SD.

Lee will probably carry Blackburn across the finish line, just like Abbott will probably carry Cruz across the finish line in Texas.


Not really how it works. Senate races tend to provide coattails for gubernatorial races, not the other way around.

Governors are usually way more well known than Senators in a State(of course there are some exceptions )
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ExtremeConservative
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« Reply #15 on: September 13, 2018, 05:42:57 pm »

Safe R. Weird how this somehow became less competitive than SC and SD.

It's because Bill Lee is a very strong candidate.  He doesn't have any sort of controversial history.  Even though he is extremely conservative, it isn't exactly the sort of way that would cause voters hesitation in a state as red as this.  His message and campaign have played very well here (see his primary victory when he was a distant third a month before the election).
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ERM64man
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« Reply #16 on: September 13, 2018, 06:01:08 pm »

If I could, I would have voted in the GOP primary to vote for an establishment candidate like Black or Boyd; because TN is a safe R state, where I don't want to risk a GOP insurgent victory.
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IA IS Safe R
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« Reply #17 on: September 13, 2018, 06:29:35 pm »

If I could, I would have voted in the GOP primary to vote for an establishment candidate like Black or Boyd; because TN is a safe R state, where I don't want to risk a GOP insurgent victory.
Black would be much worse than Lee.
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Comstock V: Roman Holiday
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« Reply #18 on: September 13, 2018, 06:39:50 pm »

Safe R. Weird how this somehow became less competitive than SC and SD.

Lee will probably carry Blackburn across the finish line, just like Abbott will probably carry Cruz across the finish line in Texas.


Not really how it works. Senate races tend to provide coattails for gubernatorial races, not the other way around.

There is no reason for such a violent, aggressive ad hominem attack. 
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Senator ON Progressive
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« Reply #19 on: September 13, 2018, 06:42:48 pm »

Safe R. Weird how this somehow became less competitive than SC and SD.

Lee will probably carry Blackburn across the finish line, just like Abbott will probably carry Cruz across the finish line in Texas.


Not really how it works. Senate races tend to provide coattails for gubernatorial races, not the other way around.

Coattails outside presidential races are dubious as is, really.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #20 on: September 13, 2018, 07:18:37 pm »

Split voting, and Bredesen is a better candidate than Dean is, obviously, Dean needed Dianne Black to win in order to be carried across the finish line, and it didn't happen.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #21 on: September 14, 2018, 07:25:09 pm »

Tennessee loves businessman governors. Bredesen, Haslam, Lee
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