California state legislature megathread

[IceSpear]

I highly doubt Rouda loses while Trump is president. In fact, I'd go as far as to say that any Clinton district the GOP doesn't already hold is gone until Trump is out of office, at minimum.

[lfromnj]

I highly doubt Rouda loses while Trump is president. In fact, I'd go as far as to say that any Clinton district the GOP doesn't already hold is gone until Trump is out of office, at minimum.

I say any of the Clinton districts gained. I can see Mi 5th possibly being lost.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I'm gonna post an update tonight, but I couldn't help myself with this one.


Board of Equalization, District 4: This district covers Orange, San Diego, Riverside & Imperial Counties, as well as the more populated areas of San Bernardino County. Diane Harkey relinquished this seat to run for CA-49.

Joel Anderson has been a State Senator since 2010. He made some news this year when it came out he threatened to "bitch slap" a lobbyist from the CA Nurses Association. He relinquished his SD-38 seat to run for Board of Equalization.

Mike Schaffer was a San Diego Councilman in the 1970s. Since then, he has run for LA City Council, Las Vegas City Council and San Franscisco DA to dismal results. In his ballot statement, he mentions meeting Dr. Salk, Dr. Seuss, Bob Hope, LL Cool J and Frank Zappa. I believe Schaffer used to be a Republican, now labels himself a 'conservative democrat'.


BoE, District 4  (D+22.8 swing since 2014)
Joel Anderson       990,941   50.01
Mike Schaefer       990,527   49.99

[Technocracy Timmy]

I highly doubt Rouda loses while Trump is president. In fact, I'd go as far as to say that any Clinton district the GOP doesn't already hold is gone until Trump is out of office, at minimum.

Rouda will not lose while Trump is President.

The GOP still have a high enough floor in the 48th district to where a midterm electorate with a Demcorat in the White House in say, 2022, makes it a tossup and potential pickup. Even House Democrats won plenty of two time Bush voting districts in 06’ and 08’.

[Tekken_Guy]

RIP Tea Party Hater. Catharine Baker is gonna lose

This seat is likely gone for the GOP forever.

[lfromnj]

RIP RINO TOM F

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

3 million ballots to go!


Senate: Democrats will increase their supermajority to 28-12, picking up SD-12 & SD-14. Keep an eye on SD-34, which has gotten quite close thanks to updated LA County numbers.


SD-12 (North Central Valley) (D+25.8 swing from 2014)
Anna Caballero        74,609   52.42
Rob Poythress          67,726   47.58


SD-14 (South Central Valley)  (D+15.2 swing)
Melissa Hurtado       55,111   53.49
Andy Vidak*            47,914   46.51


SD-34 (Fountain Valley)  (D+12.3 swing)
Janet Nguyen*         98,700   51.93
Tom Umberg            91,348   48.07


SD-36 (Oceanside)  (D+25.9 swing)
Patricia Bates*          158,307   52.82
Marggie Castellano    141,380   47.28


Assembly: Democrats will maintain their supermajority with solid pickups in AD-40 and AD-76. If current trends continue, Dems will pick up another 3 seats for a 60-20 supermajority. You gotta look to the early 1930's to find an Assembly supermajority as big as that.


AD-16 (East Bay)  (D+11.6 swing from 2016)
Catherine Baker*           83,813   50.10
Rebecca Bauer-Kahan     83,474   49.90


AD-32 (Bakersfield)  (R+19.1 swing)
Rudy Salas*              31,835   55.56
Justin Mendes            25,465   44.44


AD-38 (Santa Clarita)  (D+6.9 swing)
Christy Smith          76,111   50.57
Dante Acosta*        74,393   49.43


AD-60 (Riverside)  (R+7.7 swing)
Sabrina Cervantes*    36,011   50.66
Bill Essayli                 35,066   49.34


AD-72 (Westminster)  (D+9.3 swing)
Tyler Diep                62,363   53.33
Josh Lowenthal        54,736   46.67


AD-74 (Irvine)  (D+14 swing)
Cottie Petrie-Norris      73,560   50.79
Matthew Harper*         71,305   49.21


AD-77 (North San Diego)  (D+12.7 swing)
Brian Maienschein*       78,446   51.43
Sunday Gover              74,097   48.57


EDIT, Nov 14:   In AD-38, Asm. Dante Acosta conceded his race to Christy Smith. That brings the Democrats to 3 pickups and a 58-32 majority.

[MycroftCZ]

RIP Tea Party Hater. Catharine Baker is gonna lose

This seat is likely gone for the GOP forever.

I live in this district and Baker had a really weak GE campaign. My parents voted for Baker in the primary and then Kahan in the general. Baker is pretty popular here but the R next to her name was too much for a lot of people.

[Virginiá]

At least on paper, it's really surprising Baker held that seat as close as she did to begin with. The presidential numbers make it look like a Safe D district (64% Clinton / 57% Obama). Republican incumbents have gotten blown out in more favorable districts elsewhere around the country.

[MycroftCZ]

At least on paper, it's really surprising Baker held that seat as close as she did to begin with. The presidential numbers make it look like a Safe D district (64% Clinton / 57% Obama). Republican incumbents have gotten blown out in more favorable districts elsewhere around the country.

It is really impressive that she's been able to hold on but it kinda make sense in that she's really moderate and has closely alligned herself with our Democratic state Senator Steve Glazer. If Baker goes down, it's probably only because the headwinds were too strong for her to win in. But I wouldn't be surprised if she runs for Congress in a red wave year. She'd be a great recruit for the GOP.

[Mr.Phips]

At least on paper, it's really surprising Baker held that seat as close as she did to begin with. The presidential numbers make it look like a Safe D district (64% Clinton / 57% Obama). Republican incumbents have gotten blown out in more favorable districts elsewhere around the country.

It is really impressive that she's been able to hold on but it kinda make sense in that she's really moderate and has closely alligned herself with our Democratic state Senator Steve Glazer. If Baker goes down, it's probably only because the headwinds were too strong for her to win in. But I wouldn't be surprised if she runs for Congress in a red wave year. She'd be a great recruit for the GOP.

What district would she run in?

[MycroftCZ]

At least on paper, it's really surprising Baker held that seat as close as she did to begin with. The presidential numbers make it look like a Safe D district (64% Clinton / 57% Obama). Republican incumbents have gotten blown out in more favorable districts elsewhere around the country.

It is really impressive that she's been able to hold on but it kinda make sense in that she's really moderate and has closely alligned herself with our Democratic state Senator Steve Glazer. If Baker goes down, it's probably only because the headwinds were too strong for her to win in. But I wouldn't be surprised if she runs for Congress in a red wave year. She'd be a great recruit for the GOP.

What district would she run in?

CA-11 which is really Democratic (I know) but given how well she's done in her Assembly races she might have a shot. I think DeSaulnier's gonna retire soon. I've seen him speak recently and he's noticeably older and slower.

[Mr.Phips]

At least on paper, it's really surprising Baker held that seat as close as she did to begin with. The presidential numbers make it look like a Safe D district (64% Clinton / 57% Obama). Republican incumbents have gotten blown out in more favorable districts elsewhere around the country.

It is really impressive that she's been able to hold on but it kinda make sense in that she's really moderate and has closely alligned herself with our Democratic state Senator Steve Glazer. If Baker goes down, it's probably only because the headwinds were too strong for her to win in. But I wouldn't be surprised if she runs for Congress in a red wave year. She'd be a great recruit for the GOP.

What district would she run in?

CA-11 which is really Democratic (I know) but given how well she's done in her Assembly races she might have a shot. I think DeSaulnier's gonna retire soon. I've seen him speak recently and he's noticeably older and slower.

A Republican isn't winning CA-11 in a federal election.

[MycroftCZ]

At least on paper, it's really surprising Baker held that seat as close as she did to begin with. The presidential numbers make it look like a Safe D district (64% Clinton / 57% Obama). Republican incumbents have gotten blown out in more favorable districts elsewhere around the country.

It is really impressive that she's been able to hold on but it kinda make sense in that she's really moderate and has closely alligned herself with our Democratic state Senator Steve Glazer. If Baker goes down, it's probably only because the headwinds were too strong for her to win in. But I wouldn't be surprised if she runs for Congress in a red wave year. She'd be a great recruit for the GOP.

What district would she run in?

CA-11 which is really Democratic (I know) but given how well she's done in her Assembly races she might have a shot. I think DeSaulnier's gonna retire soon. I've seen him speak recently and he's noticeably older and slower.

A Republican isn't winning CA-11 in a federal election.

I'm saying if the stars aligned for her, like a red wave and a weak Dem opponent, this race could at least be made competitive. This district is full of people who would vote for her just to say they were "bipartisan" and voted for a Republican.

[lfromnj]

At least on paper, it's really surprising Baker held that seat as close as she did to begin with. The presidential numbers make it look like a Safe D district (64% Clinton / 57% Obama). Republican incumbents have gotten blown out in more favorable districts elsewhere around the country.

It is really impressive that she's been able to hold on but it kinda make sense in that she's really moderate and has closely alligned herself with our Democratic state Senator Steve Glazer. If Baker goes down, it's probably only because the headwinds were too strong for her to win in. But I wouldn't be surprised if she runs for Congress in a red wave year. She'd be a great recruit for the GOP.

What district would she run in?

CA-11 which is really Democratic (I know) but given how well she's done in her Assembly races she might have a shot. I think DeSaulnier's gonna retire soon. I've seen him speak recently and he's noticeably older and slower.

A Republican isn't winning CA-11 in a federal election.

I'm saying if the stars aligned for her, like a red wave and a weak Dem opponent, this race could at least be made competitive. This district is full of people who would vote for her just to say they were "bipartisan" and voted for a Republican.

Just like Richard Ojedas gonna win WV3?
lol.

[Mr.Phips]

At least on paper, it's really surprising Baker held that seat as close as she did to begin with. The presidential numbers make it look like a Safe D district (64% Clinton / 57% Obama). Republican incumbents have gotten blown out in more favorable districts elsewhere around the country.

It is really impressive that she's been able to hold on but it kinda make sense in that she's really moderate and has closely alligned herself with our Democratic state Senator Steve Glazer. If Baker goes down, it's probably only because the headwinds were too strong for her to win in. But I wouldn't be surprised if she runs for Congress in a red wave year. She'd be a great recruit for the GOP.

What district would she run in?

CA-11 which is really Democratic (I know) but given how well she's done in her Assembly races she might have a shot. I think DeSaulnier's gonna retire soon. I've seen him speak recently and he's noticeably older and slower.

A Republican isn't winning CA-11 in a federal election.

I'm saying if the stars aligned for her, like a red wave and a weak Dem opponent, this race could at least be made competitive. This district is full of people who would vote for her just to say they were "bipartisan" and voted for a Republican.

Just like Richard Ojedas gonna win WV3?
lol.

Pretty much

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Where things currently stand in the Board of Equalization, District 4 race

BoE, District 4  (D+23 swing since 2014)
Mike Schaefer       1,064,086   50.12
Joel Anderson       1,059,038   49.88


Mike Schaefer, disbarred lawyer & Frank Zappa's high school classmate, is leading a 2-term State Senator & former Assemblyman.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Janet Nguyen will win thanks to faux lefties like me who voted for her. She’s got the Vietnamese on lock. Nothing to see here folks.

Still a closer margin than I would've expected. We'll see how re-districting goes by 2022.

That being said, I think Patricia Bates stands a better chance of being unseated in 2022 (If she runs)

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Nguyen's lead shrunk by 1.4% today-

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Having a very hard time imagining Baker pulling this off-

[smoltchanov]

I hate how polarized our politics are. My moderate state senator who’s done well for the community could get kicked out while Tyler Trump-loving Diep-s**t gets to be my next assemblyman.

+100. Excessive polarization dumbed down US politics to neanderthal levels.

[lfromnj]

Cottie Petrie Norris (D) defeated Assemblyman Matt Harper in Orange County. Her lead is nearly 4% and expanding. And Brian Maienschein’s lead is down to 3% in San Diego’s 77th AD. He holds the second bluest AD seat of any Republican, after Catharine Baker. And Christy Smith defeated Donte Acosta in a rematch in northern LA County’s 38th AD, which is nearly coterminous with CD-25. What’s amazing is that there are still about a half dozen vulnerable Republicans in the Assembly and three or four left in the Senate up in 2020. California Republicans are going the way of Hawaii Republicans and Wyoming Dems

TLDR:
Dems +4 in Assembly (and counting. Uncalled races in AD-16 and AD-77)
Dems +2 in State Senate

And there’s still a lot more room for them to fall in 2020 with Trump on the ballot. Hopefully we get like 80% of seats and then nuke the redistricting commission and baconstrip the rest of the Congressional seats

lol I doubt Cali evens needs a serious baconstrip. you could probably get a map that looks fair for 51-2 and you would probably want 2 R sinks to make the rest of the state 65+D.

[Virginiá]

And there’s still a lot more room for them to fall in 2020 with Trump on the ballot. Hopefully we get like 80% of seats and then nuke the redistricting commission and baconstrip the rest of the Congressional seats

Voters would still need to vote for the repeal of that since it was created via initiative. California has pretty strict legislative tampering rules.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Nguyen looks all but certain to lose-

[lfromnj]

jesus whats the predicted majority in senate + assembly.
This is literally brutal.