FL: Rasmussen: Sen. Nelson (D) +1

[IceSpear]

Are people here really spiking the football over a 1 point "lead" in a Rasmussen poll?

I mean, I'm happier than anyone that this race is now a dead heat, but come on. It was just a few weeks ago that I had to constantly argue that this race wasn't lean R, but now Nelson is inevitable?

[IceSpear]

It is pretty satisfying to know Scott lit tens of millions of his own money on fire for basically nothing.

Was it for nothing? I'm pretty sure had he spent nothing he'd be significantly behind Nelson right now.

[IceSpear]

Are people here really spiking the football over a 1 point "lead" in a Rasmussen poll?

I mean, I'm happier than anyone that this race is now a dead heat, but come on.

(R)asmussen tends to cook the numbers in favor of the GOP, so Nelson's probably slightly more ahead.

Polls of this race since the primary: D+1, Tie, Tie, Tie, R+2, D+1

They're perfectly in line with the consensus, so unskewing it makes zero sense. In fact, they actually give Gillum his biggest lead of ANY of those six polls.

If five different pollsters show someone up 5 points, then that person releases an internal showing them up 5 points, it doesn't make much sense to say "guess it's a tie then because of the internal rule!" when the preponderance of all available evidence suggests that they really are up 5 points.

[IceSpear]

It is pretty satisfying to know Scott lit tens of millions of his own money on fire for basically nothing.

Was it for nothing? I'm pretty sure had he spent nothing he'd be significantly behind Nelson right now.

But even so, what is the point of spending all that money just to spend an insignificant stretch of time ahead, only to start falling behind later on anyway? I think it would have been better to just save money for the last 6-7 weeks of the campaign. Pound the airwaves/internet with ads and invest the extra money in a state of the art field operation. (Or just save the money because prob going to lose anyway )

I dunno about you but I'm not convinced dumping millions upon millions of dollars in ads many months before election day actually does anything useful. Research on political ads show their meager effects wear off pretty quickly, which contradicts the idea of "defining your opponent early" - at least via advertisements.

Yeah, it would be better to save money for later...if money is a finite resource. Sadly, that's not a problem for the Medicare Fraudster. He can spend as much Medicare fraud blood money as he wants, so why not? Beating up his opponents and defining them early before they could effectively respond was part of how he won his previous two elections (and primary in 2010) despite being such a toxic candidate, so it only makes sense he'd think "why fix what's not broken?" Though even with drastically outspending them and riding the wave both times he still only managed to get 1 point wins, showing what a horrible candidate he truly is. Unfortunately, apparently responding well to a hurricane can completely turn around your image. If it hadn't, Nelson would be burying him right now due to being a much stronger candidate than Sink/Crist, along with the fact that the wind is now in Scott's face rather than at his back.